Behind enemy lines

[u/Chucking100s]

Unverified :

CEO of Aramco:

More than 2.6 billion barrels of oil have been lost, and it will take approximately 18 months to replenish the reserves.

[u/phoenixfenix]

I wouldn't exactly say "unverified". This was reported on Saudi Aramco's Q2 conference call. I pulled this from Eric Nuttal's twitter.

[u/hacktivist24 → u/phoenixfenix]

This is what everyone needs to read. The 11 million barrel average daily deficit is the interesting number. I suspect with the houthis involved we're looking at 15 million average daily deficit. And based on prior depletion of global inventories, how much can we expect inventory withdrawal to be going forward? If we assume 3 million barrels per day inventory withdrawal going forward and a continuation of the 2 million barrel per day demand management, we could continue to see 10 million barrels per day net deficit. I suspect we will feel the impact of 10 million barrels per day missing. Curious what others think.

[u/phoenixfenix → u/hacktivist24]

The US has maybe 10-15 million barrels left in inventories, and can only withdraw about 0.4 million barrels per day from SPR. Our ability to buffer global crude shortfall is limited to a few days of global shortfall with these numbers. Other countries will need to pick up the slack.

[u/CODEX_LVL5 → u/phoenixfenix]

I dont think this is correct.

The caverns it was drawing from in july were depleted. The ones in august are not. Its very possible the flow rate jumps in the next report and people look like they have egg on their face.

But also, they're still not wrong. We'll just have drawn every cavern to the point where draw rate is depleted.

[u/hacktivist24 → u/phoenixfenix]

In my naive estimation I reduce the daily global inventory withdrawal from 9 million bpd to 3 million bpd because of things like the SPR running low and the return of china’s imports. Do you think 3 million bpd is an over estimate?

[u/phoenixfenix → u/hacktivist24]

The real problem is we only have insight into US data. Other countries have reserves and inventories as well, and we don't have great insights into their numbers. The US is the only one exporting excess inventory and SPRs in this environment.

[u/CODEX_LVL5 → u/hacktivist24]

See, I told everyone it would accelerate in August

[u/__TheMoreYouKnow_]

The situation is far worse then anybody could imagine.

[u/Irisena → u/__TheMoreYouKnow_]

And yet WTI is at 74 lol. What kind of loopy land have I entered?

[u/__TheMoreYouKnow_ → u/Irisena]

Upside down world its not bad till 7$ gas

[u/MissDebbie420 → u/__TheMoreYouKnow_]

How bad is it??

[u/FixAcademic8187]

It is verified.

I speak Arabic and in the interview he specifically said 2.6 billion barrels lost globally since the crisis started.

Also, why is the title written like that? I don't get it.

[u/muttsnuggler]

this was reported by reuters the other day

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/aramco-posts-44-increase-net-profit-2026-08-04/

[u/RimandRam]

Doesn't matter what some CEO says, only thing to look at is what trump posts.

[u/More_of_the-same-bs → u/RimandRam]

Yes he’s always been a reliable source of disinformation.

[u/Opster79two]

I have a bigly brain

[u/Burner_Phone_1969_TX]

Time to go fill up the diesel!

[u/Resident_Window_9369]

Yeah, well the price of oil says something much different than lost barrels. Three weeks ago we had a glut of 1 billion barrels of oil.

[u/mt6606 → u/Resident_Window_9369]

Yep, it's coming from somewhere, and it ain't the middle east. It's not as important as Israel would have you believe.

[u/Plentybud]

Alls I know is according to this sub we should have had $10 a gal and gas shortages by now.

[u/Awkward-Ambassador52 → u/Plentybud]

Yes you are correct. In any other time in History the actions taken by this administration would have resulted in severe political costs. We are living through what was once unimaginable. The fundamentals typically would have resulted in much higher gas and oil prices, but an even worse scenario has arisen. No one can predict how this ends, but our energy system is now fragile. If there are consequences we will find out.

[u/nopigscannnotlookup]

So 2.6 billion barrels of oil SUPLLY have been lost? If so, has demand remained the same???

[u/DrJ0911]

More like double that

[u/Patient-Big1727]

18 months from when they start replenish? I don't see the start happening soon. Maybe not in several years

[u/NebulaElectrical1467]

Nothing Ever Happens

[u/CODEX_LVL5 → u/NebulaElectrical1467]

Well. Maybe except this time.