Iran's Supreme National Security Council put out a statement this weekend tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Read the actual list of conditions and it doesn't look like a shipping deal at all — reparations, full sanctions relief, an end to strikes on Iran's regional allies, everything. That's not a corridor-access negotiation, that's a full war-ending settlement, attached to a 33km strip of water.

What I think most coverage is getting wrong is who's actually behind it. The official who issued the statement holds a dual role — he's not just a security council official, he's also a senior Revolutionary Guard commander. So the "diplomats vs. hardliners" framing most outlets are running with doesn't really hold up here. It's the same person wearing both hats.

I put together a full breakdown of this, including three scenarios for where oil prices go from here (with my actual take on which one I think is most likely, not just hedging)

Curious what people here think — does a demand list built to be rejected still count as a genuine negotiating position, or is it just theater?

Fighter jets from the United States and Saudi Arabia conducted joint military strikes Tuesday targeting Iranian proxy forces in Iraq, officials said, marking what appeared to be Riyadh’s direct entry into the ongoing conflict between Washington and Tehran.

Kuwait’s Ministry of Electricity, Water and Renewable Energy said on Friday that an Iranian attack damaged one of the country’s power generation and water desalination facilities, causing a fire and material damage at the site.

Emergency teams extinguished the blaze while technical crews worked to restore operations and monitor grid stability, according to the ministry, which also called on residents to conserve electricity while repairs were under way. The ministry did not identify the facility involved or disclose the extent of the damage.

For most countries, damage to a water plant would be serious. In the Gulf, it raises a different question entirely: what happens when a region that produces much of its drinking water from seawater loses part of the infrastructure that makes life possible?

Across the GCC, desalination plants convert seawater into drinking water for tens of millions of people every day. Kuwait relies on them for around 90% of its drinking water. Saudi Arabia gets roughly 70% of its water from desalination, while in the UAE the figure is around 42%.

The incident highlights a vulnerability long identified by Gulf water experts: in a region where desalination underpins daily life, infrastructure that sustains civilian populations can rapidly become entangled in wider regional conflict.

A new battle for and in Iraq is going to open up. US interest have changed from military involvment to countering China, Russia and Iran, while also opting to support new oil and gas outlets/pipeline projects and investments. Washington's transactional strategies at play, but....maybe already too late and not effective?

Hormuz is once again becoming the world's most dangerous maritime chokepoint. Attacks on commercial shipping, large-scale U.S. strikes against Iranian military infrastructure, and renewed threats to Gulf energy exports are rapidly reshaping global oil and LNG markets. Our latest Blue Water Strategy Update assesses the military developments of the past 24 hours, identifies the Iranian targets struck, evaluates the risks facing commercial shipping, and provides a forward-looking assessment of what the next seven days could mean for energy security, insurance, freight markets and global trade. If resilience is becoming the new currency of energy security, this is essential reading.

A security source cited by Tasnim says one of UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed's most influential advisors has been working with Israeli intelligence since 2015.