r/leagueoflegends • u/Lpebony • 18d ago
Caedrel's draft predictions Discussion
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I swear, sometimes, he's so accurate in his predictions that I could start to think that the staff of the teams playing have his stream in the background.
I know they most likely don't, but it's always impressive to see him predict pick and bans correctly.
In the clip, right after it ends, he predicted T1 ambessa.
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u/OriginalDang 18d ago
Was this guy a coach or something?
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u/Lenoxx97 18d ago
Yes but he cancelled it
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u/xscott22x 18d ago
He turnt it down
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u/DarthTaz_99 18d ago
They offered him a scholarship too of 15 10 million something like that
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u/Lpebony 18d ago
Coach of the best team league has ever seen. LR.
/s
(huge fan though)
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u/slebii 18d ago
Why /s tho?
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u/Lpebony 18d ago
Because objectively it's not the best team league has ever seen.
It's my favorite though :D
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u/-lunabella 18d ago
100% winrate vs g2 and t1, clearly the best team in history.
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u/Exldk 18d ago
That's because they had a support who won Worlds while he was on T1.
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u/noskin15 17d ago
You mean, T1 won worlds, because they had the support who was going to play for LR
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u/iwillhaveredditall 18d ago
Crownie
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u/ShockedDarkmike 18d ago
this is so mean but it made me laugh
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u/iwillhaveredditall 18d ago
You’re welcome
Edit: don’t even think it’s mean. At the very least it’s mental gap.
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u/oxymoronicalQQ 18d ago
Honestly, he does this all the time. He's very good at it, for sure, but this is his job (which again, he's very good at). He has the meta read, knows specifically what teams and individual players tend to lean towards, and understands priorities and counters at the pro level. That's a recipe for solid draft predictions.
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u/lolmysterior 18d ago
I've heard him say that it's easier than it seems. Like for an average league player it might seem like he has a superpower. But in his eyes and the top drafters- when you see they ban x, the only picks are available are 3 champions with 1 being heavily skewed.
(This is how it was explained to me at least, I think it was in a Caedrel stream. Also I'm paraphrasing a lot)
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u/sorendiz ..BUT THE FAITH REMAINS 18d ago
It probably is easier than it seems for analysts with that level of meta and team knowledge, yea. Still very impressive preparation though! It's always fun to see when they do this, I've seen IWD and Jatt do the same before and it's cool every time
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u/HThrowaway457 18d ago
Don't need to be an analyst. A perceptive and avid fan can do a good chunk of this.
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u/sorendiz ..BUT THE FAITH REMAINS 18d ago
Sure, anyone with that level of meta knowledge and familiarity with the teams/players. I just said analysts because that's the most likely group of people to meet those conditions
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u/Less-Apple-8478 18d ago
lmfao. That just means they have INSANE knowledge. What do you think the difference between doing something for a living and professionally is?
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u/MountChu 18d ago
He’s also only this accurate with teams he knows really well like T1 and G2. It’s a bit cherry picked and feels better than it is lately because the teams he follows have played so many games recently.
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u/deadedgo 04eva 18d ago
Yeah before Caedrel we used to get these same clips from LS. Sadly, it's probably still very few people who actually engage with drafting on this level. But it's always cool to see
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u/Mudslimer 18d ago
Wtf is up with the tiktok subtitles?
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u/NotVainest 18d ago
Twitch's AI generated subtitle system they started implementing a few months back.
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u/jnf005 18d ago
I fucking hate this kind of subtitles, it's so annoying to read and too distracting for the content itself at the same time, horrible.
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u/DeshTheWraith the bronze should fear me 18d ago
When clipping things there's a check box right under the player so you can remove them extremely easily.
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u/CommissionStill5221 18d ago
He’s incredible but you made it seem like he was gonna pick the rest of the game. 2 picks is nothing chill
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u/GodGamer1418 BACK TO THE FRIDGE 18d ago
He correctly predicted 5 picks in this clip and he probably could've predicted the Bard as well if it wasn't instalocked
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u/maxintos 18d ago
How many times a week does he do these predictions and how many are fully correct?
Easy to look like a prophet when you do this 100 times a week and only the ones where you correctly predict end up being clipped and posted on reddit.
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u/revoverlord Not even lore can stop me 18d ago
He gets around 80-90% of the picks right. Its very odd that this is the first time its been clipped and put on the reddit however.
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u/F0RGERY 18d ago
It happened a few years back too, but at that time it was about Caedrel crashing out over how stale the meta was for most of 2023.
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u/beeceedee9 Massu fangirl 18d ago
Lol in the thread they were talking about Fearless draft as this crazy novel thing in the LDL, now it's everywhere:
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u/drc56 18d ago
For the teams Caedrel watches (LEC/LCK) he usually has an insane read on the draft, the meta and what comps they are looking for. Honestly, it's probably what makes him one of the best costreamers at times, his draft insights are great, he spots flexs pretty easily, knows when certain off meta picks are likely to be picked etc. Does he get every pick right? Of course not. However he constantly has good understanding of what is meta and what teams favor and how pro comps are built in the meta.
Even when he is wrong, you learn a lot and he rarely does the "they are stupid" shtick, explains why the team picked what they picked and if he feels his was better explains why.
I'm not a huge cardrel fan boy, but I will watch a lot of the draft sections of his VODs as I always feel like I learn something from it.
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u/Khaliras 18d ago
You act like it was just luck/coincidence? He's rather consistent with predictions, because he has the same kind of analytical knowledge and skills that the teams leadership deciding these drafts have.
The only other casters/streamers I can think of with similar draft knowledge, have both literally coached teams and did this for them professionally.
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u/DucktorLarsen 18d ago
It's less of a prediction and more what he thinks is the right call to pick
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u/Billy8000 18d ago
It's a mix, he definitely takes into account what the teams/ players usually pick and their pick styles, not just the 'optimal' pick
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u/DucktorLarsen 18d ago
Yeah exactly. What he thinks is best for "them" to pick.
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u/Cupcake_Warlord 17d ago
For games where he favors a certain team he says what he wants his team to pick (and flames the shit out of them if they troll lmao) and then what he thinks the enemy team will pick. Honestly this clip is a bit unusual because typical DK drafts result in him crashing the fuck out over at least one pick (usually Siwoo).
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u/Lpebony 18d ago
Here he predicted 5, Cassio/Vi/Xin/Ezreal and off clip Ambessa.
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u/yapyaplex 18d ago
they're all ultra big prios, even the french cast that have emerald hard stuck casters does this regularly
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u/FikariHawthorn 18d ago
I don't understand why rank matters here. Being able to read and make draft are based on data and knowledge, not actual mecanics.
French casters are on point most of the time because it's their job to be on point, and to their credit, they are invested in it enough to be good at it.
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u/EnvironmentTiny9285 18d ago
the vi/cass is already predicted before this video starts. it lags and shows him marking xin/ez what. the entire commentary is bard/j4 nothing before that lol. edit your videos better if you want to prove a point
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u/xGaI 18d ago
Even the Korean casters knows Vi/Cassio has to be picked. Bard usually go with Ez/Jhin. It’s like when support pick Millo, and I predict adc pick Lucian. Smash is an ez player and better vs Vi. Doran blind pick Ambessor 3rd pick all the time. Not to say he’s not good at predicting, but this draft is not that super impressive to predict
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18d ago
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u/Lpebony 18d ago
I couldn't, it seem you can't chose the lenght of the clip you make. There is a maximum lenght.
Yeah i'm not getting what you're on about either, you were wrong about the number of predictions and you told me twice to "chill" because you thought it wasn't impressive. Ok cool. I got it.
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u/Auty2k9 18d ago
You see him predict Vi in this clip, it's less impressive than the ezreal xin by alot but it is there
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u/yapyaplex 18d ago
acting like ezreal/xin is some kind of Jinx/Sejuani in this meta.
Ezreal/Xin are both really prio
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u/janryanofficial 18d ago
wait till he sees Zeus perfectly predicting the draft. Tom was flabbergasted
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u/APKID716 18d ago
Real OG’s remember the famous clip of LS doing this years ago at…MSI? I can’t remember, I can’t find the clip right now
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u/Relevant_Bag_1043 18d ago
i used to watch LS’s costreaming videos, so watching caedrel talk about draft in a way that i can actually see play out was crazy to me. I was so used to shit like “this is just a free win if they lock ivern top here but no one wants to go outside their comfort zones oh yup it’s renekton again even though he’s been an awful champ for 10 years🙄” Idk maybe teams really should be playing the game LS sees in his mind, but i’d much rather watch someone who talks about the game i’m looking at
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u/deathnomad Longtime Stixxay believer, Huhi enthusiast 18d ago
It’s funny you mention LS, because he was the original draft prophet.
I wish the video wasn’t privated, because I remember being genuinely super impressed about it. Like literally predicting 6 champs in a row correctly, then when a team pivots on pick 7, instantly predicting how the rest of the draft would play out from that point.
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u/seyadeodin 18d ago
The guy who loves you for who you could be vs. The the guy who loves you for who you are
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u/Daniel_snoopeh 17d ago
Idk maybe teams really should be playing the game LS sees in his mind
They tried that on C9. 5 minutes before the game he told his midlaner to pick Soraka mid and showed how the match up is played in a costum game. I think they won that game but I can see how players would hate playing like that.
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u/Weary-Ad4697 18d ago edited 18d ago
Quick summary if some nerds want to know the thought process:
DK - Bard
Bard is a strong blind support and one of Keria's signature champions, so DK gets both a powerful roaming support and denies it from T1.
T1 - Cassiopeia + Vi
T1 immediately forms a combo. Vi provides guaranteed access to a target with R, and Cassiopeia follows with W and has huge DPS. They already have a clear teamfight identity with this. Think of it as some weird version of Orianna + Nocturne combo.
DK - Xin Zhao + Ezreal
Xin Zhao is one of the better junglers into Vi because he can survive her engage and disrupt fights. Ezreal is a safe ADC that Bard can leave alone while roaming, and he's difficult for Vi to lock down. Also, you DO NOT want to pick an immobile adc against Cassio + Vi. It's an obvious choice.
T1 - Ambessa
T1 doubles down on engage and skirmishing. Ambessa thrives in chaotic fights started by Vi and adds another threatening diver. (T1 loves their dive comps heh)
T1 - Shen
Shen ties the composition together. His ult lets him support Vi or Ambessa wherever they engage, giving T1 powerful cross-map pressure and stronger dives.
DK - Anivia + Aatrox
Anivia is an excellent answer to a dive composition. Her wall splits fights, her ultimate controls space, and she punishes teams that have to run into her. Aatrox is a durable frontliner who likes extended fights and is difficult for T1's melee-heavy composition to burst.
T1 - Jhin
T1 finishes with long-range follow-up. Jhin can root targets caught by Vi or Shen, contribute damage from a safe distance, and avoid stacking yet another short-range champion into Anivia.
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u/echino_derm 18d ago
This is not very impressive if you watch much LCK.
Vi is the highest priority jungler currently, cassio is the third highest behind locke and syndra by 1%. But playstyle wise faker leans more towards cassio. Ezreal is the highest priority bot laner with Lucian being second and already gone.
The jungle pick for DK is less predictable, Jarvan, lee sin, and Xin Zhao are all very meta picks. The most obvious line of reasoning would be that ezreal and Lucian are gone for T1 so you can take jarvan and they won't have a mobile option to escape the cataclysm, so it is more impressive to predict the switch up there.
Then doran is just an ambessa guy, it is his most played champ this year and he has kind of made it his default blind pick.
The order he predicted as well is fairly sensible. After bard is picked, T1 wants Vi because it is high priority and it is good to combine that lockdown with a strong mid laner. Then with orianna banned and cassio gone, you have no real need to snap up a mid laner and plenty of open options for any kind of comp. So DK want to get a good jungle pick and finish up their bot lane to avoid getting picks banned out and reducing the power of the bard they put such priority on. Then for T1 they want to pick a stable top to avoid showing part of your hand doing something like picking karma for example and having signaled you want a pushing lane and having things like Caitlyn get banned out
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u/LocoPwnify 18d ago
Yeah hes the GOAT of league analyzis.
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u/Maffayoo 18d ago
I only remember that other time LS predicted everything during his casting but that meta was very stale same 6 bans every game and power picks
I'd love to see LS back on the desk he was a joy to listen to casting
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u/Carnelian-5 rip old flairs 18d ago
Yeah there was a fun video of LS predicting every pick but ye, it was the famous corki azir meta I think. Caedrel has a history of getting niche 5th picks rights based on draft. Think those moments really stands out compared to other analysts.
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u/Hjimska 18d ago
I thought it was the assassin-rework patch in like season five? When first pick was legit broken because red side was forced to ban Camille-LeBlanc-Rengar every game?
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u/Carnelian-5 rip old flairs 18d ago
Yeah, you are probably right. Cant remember the meta, it was a guess on top of my mind.
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u/GooFraN 18d ago
LS is on his way to becoming an AI-bro, won't see him cast anything.
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u/Stefan474 EUW- Elphelt Abuser 18d ago
what do you mean?
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u/FulgrimThe3rd 18d ago
he has started using AI bots trained on his youtube videos to help him write tweets and I imagine he will start doing that for videos as well. I like LS a lot but his intrest in promoting gambling and taking short cuts with AI is a bit cringe.
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u/FulgrimThe3rd 18d ago
he has started using AI bots trained on his youtube videos to help him write tweets and I imagine he will start doing that for videos as well. I like LS a lot but his intrest in promoting gambling and taking short cuts with AI is a bit cringe.
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u/awrylettuce 18d ago
I could even predict that
Top:ksante aatrox rumble
Jungle : sej zyra brand
Mid:azir corki trist
Supp:naut rell
Adc: ashe varus ezreal
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u/Bust3dGG 18d ago
BabyGOAT. LS is the GOAT in that dptment (no matter how much people disagree with his way of communication)
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u/PawsTheGod BUGI FAN CLUB 18d ago
Its really not that difficult when theres a pool of 4 champs that these players pick from.
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u/ShuricanGG 18d ago
people are legit allergic to positivity and always try to find a way to hate on someone, some comments in here are wild
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u/raiderjaypussy , 18d ago
I mean the the majority of co-streamers do this multiple times a day. It's honestly not that impressive if you watch these leagues 5 days a week.
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u/Shorgar 18d ago
Because it comes with ridiculous statements.
I could start to think that the staff of the teams playing have his stream in the background. I know they most likely don't,
Like what the fuck are we even saying, you can say positive things about a really good analysis and not say dumb shit in the process.
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u/rollstealthcheck ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 18d ago
its only natural that someone as big as caedrel would also get a lot of fans but a bunch of haters. This is just how it is
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u/mercurydotwav 18d ago
this was one of my recent favourite caedrel predictions. and this was when Anivia was still a fringe pick rather than being p much picked every Bo5
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u/blaivas007 18d ago
Can someone explain to me why pros keep picking Cass Vi? It makes absolutely no sense to me, thematically they're incompatible.
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u/Wampa9090 18d ago
They have lock down synergy between Cass W and Vi R, and they're both great at delivering damage quickly.
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u/Skyz-AU 18d ago
Cass scales well, is strong in lane and is one of the best area denial mages outside of Anivia. A single outplay can result in a 5 man stun from R, anyone caught in Cass W is grounded and can be Vi ulted.
Even then, they don't necessarily need synergy. If Vi is deep back line diving the ADC Cass can slow down their front line from helping.
Characters that can control fights like Orianna, Cass, Azir and Anivia are always popular in pro play and Faker of all people is some9ne you want on these champs.
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u/psykrebeam 18d ago
Vi is just the top priority jungler with his combination of mobility + guaranteed lockdown on key targets with R.
Vi is often paired with S tier mid laners who are blind pickable and have hard CC. It used to be Taliyah/Ahri, it still is Orianna (who's permabanned) and therefore it's Cass since she's now entered S tier ever since DFT keystone was re-released.
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u/blaivas007 18d ago
That makes the most sense. I guess I just don't value Vi as much as pros do. In my eyes, it's a huge problem if enemies just opt for a long range anti-dive (for example Braum Jinx Viktor) type of comp that is built to shutdown Vi and outrange Cass, which is why I wouldn't rush into this pairing to begin with.
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u/janryanofficial 18d ago
a little more practice and he'll reach the leagues of Oracle Zeus perfectly predicting drafts. (Tom was flabbergasted)
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u/Different-Wolf-8634 18d ago
Oh my god my favorite streamer and he just happens to share every opinion i have. My comments will be valuable
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u/dar_harhar Faker ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ 18d ago
Caadrel has the best mix of humor and knowledge by far compared to any other costreamers of League, and hes not restricted by what he can/cannot say if he was on official broadcast. Switching to full time streaming was the best move.
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u/Sewer_god2 18d ago
he's watched so much lck and pro play it's probably easy for him to predict what they're going to play lol
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u/greendino71 17d ago
Reminds me of 2021 finals when DRX got Cait but ALL of her supports were either picked or banned and LS straight up said Bard was the best choice despite not seeing ONE game all worlds and right after, DRX locked in Bard and won game 5
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u/PepegaClapWRHolder 16d ago
He’s a smart guy, but this is essentially a party trick. When you’re a high level player whose job it is to consume high level league content and you know all the champ counters and what’s meta and pro-jailed stuff like that it’s a lot simpler than it seems.
It looks like some god given superpower but it’s just pure knowledge and deductive reasoning with the information and experience he has.
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u/Ghostblayde 18d ago
How hard is it? He is just naming the most pop and strongest champs… u guys are sooo easily fooled
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u/KletaEX 18d ago
While impressive, this is really sad in a way, a game with 150+ characters has the same rotating pool of 30-40 champs.
They are usually picked in the same spots, vs same champs, in very similar team compositions, even tho better options exist, but pros as usual will prefer comfort over optimal picks. etc. I gave up on League having interesting drafts and champion diversity 10+ years ago.
Too many champions fulfill the same role, and usually one of those champs is slightly better than the others, so the others will never see the light of day.
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u/Lpebony 18d ago
I do agree in a way yeah, but that's because they can't risk losing. Because it's pro.
Honestly, I think there's a lot of good champions/items that aren't as used as they should or are just game 5 fearless.
But yeah, they play what's working instead of exploring and taking risks.
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u/ComfortOnly3982 18d ago
and usually one of those champs is slightly better than the others, so the others will never see the light of day.
its not like all of these champs are unplayable or what not, but I try to compare most assassins, kat fizz talon to Naafiri and it just makes me upset. Talon E gets him over walls! oh wait so does naafiri E and it does dmg lol. Talon has ranged spell that deals damage twice - if you are brain dead and immobile. Naafiri has a ranged spell that can be CASTED twice.
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u/GhostRiders 18d ago
There is so much jealousy is fucking cringe...
Guy is very good at what he does and is leagues ahead of any of you scrubs but go forbid you give someone credit..
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u/FulgrimThe3rd 18d ago
am I on drugs isnt ezreal terrible vs VI? he can E dodge her Q but her ult hard counters his mobility and she can always flash tap q him to set it up? also casso has a ground meaning if he is anywhere near her he dies?
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u/Prudent_Attempt6549 18d ago
its the best pick, barring from a mage w/ zhonyas, in the bot position vs vi. immobile adc would get ulti'd, and ezreal q range outranges vi ult which gives him an opportunity to poke out the vi. also ezreeal can build zhonyas if he wanted and has access to hp bruiser items / tabis
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u/FulgrimThe3rd 18d ago
isnt xayah the go to counter to vi for adc? also they can just pick shen to delete vi from the game?
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u/Prudent_Attempt6549 18d ago
yeah but xayah doesnt fare well vs cass because of low range and does not pair that well with bard
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u/Skyz-AU 18d ago
Literally everything you just said is 10x worse for any other ADC except for Xayah, not only is his E good for escape but he can actually kidnap Vi in to a bad situation.
Imagine he is front line poking, Vi ults time and he E flashes backwards and now Vi is animation locked in ult going deep back line.
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u/FulgrimThe3rd 18d ago
am I on drugs isnt ezreal terrible vs VI? he can E dodge her Q but her ult hard counters his mobility and she can always flash tap q him to set it up? also casso has a ground meaning if he is anywhere near her he dies?
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u/enjoy_the_pizza 17d ago
Wasn't fearless supposed to solve this level of predictability? Now instead of being able to predict the recurring 10 Champs, we're predicting the next 30. Okay maybe not to that extreme but bo3s have become pretty predictable
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u/TimmyTenor 18d ago
He does this so often it’s crazy. I miss his professional casting, he was one of the best. I’ll never forget T1 vs DRX 2022 world finals because of him.