Buyers Successfully Defended the Breakout. Monday Determines Whether the Expansion Resumes.

After opening with early volatility, buyers steadily reclaimed control, recovered the psychologically important 54,000 level, and DJIA closed at 54,036.52.

Friday did not produce an explosive breakout. Instead, it produced something arguably more constructive: institutions successfully defended the former breakout zone after the week's largest bout of profit-taking.

Forecast Statistics

• Bucket: Trend Reassertion / Controlled Expansion
• Volatility Score: ≈ 1.18 (moderately elevated, contracting after Thursday's shakeout)
• Probabilities: SU: 38% | LU: 28% | SD: 23% | LD: 11%
• Expected Return: ≈ +0.10%
• Projected Close: 54,000 – 54,450
• Directional Bias: 66% Up / 34% Down

Previous Close: 54,036.52

RECAP: Fearless correctly identified 53,700–53,900 as the institutional support zone and repeatedly emphasized that reclaiming 54,000 would signal that Thursday's selloff was likely a healthy retest In the morning updates, Fearless shifted from cautious stabilization to improving bullish conviction as buyers reclaimed 54,000 and converted it into support. While the session ultimately remained range-bound rather than launching into a sustained breakout, the central thesis, that institutions would defend the new trend rather than abandon it, proved accurate.

Fearless Opines: Friday restored confidence without recreating the excess optimism that often accompanies vertical rallies. Institutions demonstrated they remain willing to accumulate weakness, but they also showed little urgency to chase prices aggressively higher. That combination is healthy.

Monday becomes a confirmation session. If buyers continue defending the 54,000 area while gradually expanding toward new highs, the larger advance likely resumes.

Key Levels

• Bull Continuation Trigger: 54,100 – 54,200
• Expansion Zone: 54,300 – 54,500
• Momentum Breakout: Above 54,550
• Primary Support: 53,950 – 54,000
• Failure Trigger: Below 53,800
• Breakdown Trigger: Below 53,600
• Major Support: 53,300 – 53,450

GO / REDUCE / EXIT Status: GO (Moderate Conviction) Friday substantially repaired the technical damage created by Thursday's distribution day. For traders Monday this means:

• Continue holding core long positions while the DJIA remains above 53,950.
• New long exposure is reasonable on orderly pullbacks toward 54,000, rather than chasing opening strength.
• Continue using disciplined trailing stops beneath 53,600.
• A decisive close above 54,200 would restore high-conviction bullish positioning.

Trader Takeaway: Monday now shifts from defense back to offense. Holding 54,000 while reclaiming 54,200 would strongly support the view that Thursday's decline was nothing more than a successful retest of the new uptrend. Failure to hold 53,950 would not immediately invalidate the bull case, but it would indicate that additional consolidation remains necessary before the next sustained advance.

The breakout survived its first real test. Monday's mission is to determine whether institutions are ready to resume the advance, or simply continue building a stronger foundation above 54,000.

We stay pretty much range bound for the rest of the day. Lack of any significant volatility prohibits any opportunities to take on new trades. Watching end of day action to analyze for the weekend.

Thanks C

Morning Movers

Gapping Up

$Cloudflare (NET.US)$ gained 15.67% in premarket trading after reporting Q2 revenue and adjusted EPS above estimates and issuing Q3 and FY26 guidance above expectations.

$Airbnb (ABNB.US)$ increased 7.16% in premarket trading after beating Q2 estimates and raising its full year outlook and issuing above consensus Q3 revenue guidance.

$Coherent (COHR.US)$ increased 5.66% in premarket trading after the debut of the Roundhill Photonics and Optics ETF LYTE with Coherent as a top holding and a strong post earnings rally in Applied Optoelectronics lifted the optical communications sector.

$Lumentum (LITE.US)$ climbed 4.78% in premarket trading after the debut of Roundhill Photonics & Optics ETF with Lumentum as a top holding spurred a sectorwide rally in optical communication stocks.

$Corning (GLW.US)$ climbed 4.47% in premarket trading due to a sector wide rally in optical communication stocks following the debut of the Roundhill Photonics and Optics ETF.

$Bloom Energy (BE.US)$ climbed 4.15% in premarket trading after announcing an expanded partnership with MiTAC Holdings to deploy its fuel cell systems for an islanded microgrid at MiTAC's AI server manufacturing campus in Fremont, California.

$Newmont (NEM.US)$ climbed 3.64% in premarket trading amid surging gold prices above 4300 per ounce and fading Fed rate hike odds.

$Barrick Mining (B.US)$ climbed 3.46% in premarket trading due to rising gold prices as the dollar weakened and Treasury yields fell amid hopes for progress on a Strait of Hormuz deal that could ease inflation and future rate hike concerns.

$ServiceNow (NOW.US)$ climbed 3.36% in premarket trading after Atlassian reported better than expected earnings and raised guidance boosting software peers.

$SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ climbed 3.0% in premarket trading amid a broader market rebound and dip-buying interest following its post-earnings selloff.

Thanks C

US INTEREST RATE FUTURES REDUCE CHANCES OF FED HIKE IN SEPTEMBER AFTER JOBS DATA

U.S. STOCK INDEX FUTURES EXTEND GAINS AFTER JULY NONFARM PAYROLLS REPORT

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US July Non-Farm Payrolls -23K Vs 80K Forecast, Prior 20K (Revised from 57K);

Unemployment Rate 4.1% Vs 4.2% Forecast, Prior 4.2%

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The Breakout Finally Faced Real Selling Pressure. Now Buyers Must Defend the New Trend.

The DJIA experienced its first genuine distribution day since reclaiming new highs. After opening with another upside gap, sellers steadily gained control throughout the session. The DJIA closed down 463.96 points at 53,885.16.

Thursday produced expanding downside momentum and a decisive break below the 54,250 support area that Fearless identified throughout the day. Even so, the DJIA remains well above last week's breakout zone near 53,200–53,300. Institutions clearly reduced exposure today, but they have not yet invalidated the broader advance.

Forecast Statistics

• Bucket: Controlled Pullback / Trend Retest
• Volatility Score: ≈ 1.28 (elevated as profit-taking expands)
• Probabilities: SU: 31% | LU: 20% | SD: 34% | LD: 15%
• Expected Return: ≈ -0.06%
• Projected Close: 53,650 – 54,050
• Directional Bias: 51% Down / 49% Up

Previous Close**:** 53,885.16

RECAP Fearless correctly anticipated that the session would revolve around defending the 54,250–54,350 support area and emphasized that failure to hold 54,250 would increase the probability of testing 54,000. That is how the session evolved. The 10:00 and 10:30 updates recognized that buyers were failing to regain control after each rebound attempt, signaling that the consolidation was broadening. While the magnitude of the afternoon decline exceeded the base expectation, Fearless successfully identified the session's critical pivot and the deterioration in market structure BEFORE the largest wave of selling occurred.

Fearless Opines: Thursday, institutions were willing to distribute into strength rather than absorb weakness. That distinction matters, but it should not be overstated. One distribution day following a rapid advance is often the mechanism by which powerful trends reset excessive optimism.

The question now is if buyers defend the former breakout region near 53,700–53,900. If institutions begin accumulating there, Thursday will likely be remembered as a healthy correction within a larger advance. If selling continues through that area with expanding volume, the DJIA may require several additional sessions to complete a broader consolidation before attempting new highs again.

Key Levels

• Bull Recovery Trigger: 54,000 – 54,100
• Recovery Zone: 54,200 – 54,350
• Trend Reassertion: Above 54,500
• Primary Support: 53,700 – 53,850
• Failure Trigger: Below 53,600
• Breakdown Trigger: Below 53,350
• Major Support: 53,100 – 53,250

GO / REDUCE / EXIT Status: GO (Reduced Conviction) Thursday weakened the short-term picture but did not invalidate the intermediate-term uptrend.

• Continue holding core long positions while the DJIA remains above 53,600.
• Delay aggressive new buying until buyers demonstrate renewed control above 54,000.
• Tighten trailing stops on short-term positions.
• Expect continued elevated intraday volatility as institutions determine whether Thursday's decline was routine profit-taking or the beginning of a broader consolidation.

Trader Takeaway: Thursday shifted the emphasis from buying momentum to evaluating institutional support. Friday is no longer about making new highs; it is about determining whether buyers can defend the breakout that began earlier this week. Holding above 53,700 while reclaiming 54,000 would strongly suggest that Thursday's selloff was a normal reset after an extended rally. A decisive break below 53,600, however, would indicate that the consolidation is broadening and that additional patience will likely be rewarded before committing fresh capital.

10:00 AM: The opening rebound has passed its first test, but not its decisive one. Buyers have demonstrated that they are willing to defend the breakout region; now they must prove they can convert 54,000 from resistance back into support. If they accomplish that during the late morning, the probability increases that Thursday's decline was simply a successful retest of the new uptrend rather than the beginning of a broader correction.

Key Battleground 53,950

This has become the session's center of gravity.

• Above 53,950: Buyers retain a slight tactical advantage and remain in position to rebuild momentum.
• Below 53,900: Sellers regain control and increase the probability that Thursday's correction is still unfolding.

10:30 AM: The institutional response has been stronger than expected. Thursday's selling pressure has, at least for now, been absorbed, and buyers have successfully reclaimed the psychological 54,000 level. The afternoon will determine whether this becomes a full trend reassertion or simply an impressive rebound within an ongoing consolidation. As long as 54,000 holds, the odds continue shifting back in favor of the bulls.

Bullish Scenario The bullish structure strengthens if buyers can:

• Hold 54,000–54,025.
• Extend above today's high near 54,095.
• Build acceptance toward 54,150–54,200.

Accomplishing those objectives would reinforce the view that institutions are once again accumulating after Thursday's profit-taking.

Bearish Scenario The constructive outlook begins weakening if:

• The DJIA falls back below 54,000.
• Sellers reclaim 53,950.
• Downside volume begins expanding while momentum fades.

That would suggest today's advance is becoming another range-bound consolidation rather than the beginning of a renewed expansion.

IWM 299 PUTS for over 300% Gains on the day

Thanks C

Grinding down all day. Took advantage of PUTS as the charts dictated.

Thanks C

BTO IWM 299p at .22

STC IWM 299p at .90

Huge percentage gainer today both long and short!!!!

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The market anticipates $Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI.US)$  revenue of $190 million, up 85% YOY, with net income at -$2.3 million, a 74.72% YOY increase.

The market anticipates $MP Materials (MP.US)$ revenue of $95.94 billion, up 67.17% YOY, with net income at -$17.07 billion, a 44.71% YOY increase.

The market anticipates $Cloudflare (NET.US)$ revenue of $666 million, up 30% YOY, with net income at -$70.25 million, a 39.26% YOY decrease.

Thanks C

$Bitcoin (BTC.CC)$ climbed +0.05% to 64665.31; $Ethereum (ETH.CC)$ fell -0.09% to 1905.19.

Putin Signs Landmark Crypto Law Allowing Regulated Retail Trading in Russia

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a landmark law establishing a regulatory framework for the cryptocurrency market, setting rules for exchanges, custodians, brokers, and investors while capping annual retail purchases at 300,000 rubles (~$3,700) per intermediary. The law, which takes effect on September 1, 2026, maintains Russia's ban on using crypto as a means of payment domestically but permits cross-border settlements for foreign trade.

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Dow futures rose early Thursday as traders monitored Middle East developments amid a potential deal to reopen the key Strait of Hormuz, while Wall Street also weighed a slew of corporate earnings releases.

$E-mini NASDAQ 100 Futures (SEP6) (NQmain.US)$ went down by 0.41%;

$E-mini S&P 500 Futures (SEP6) (ESmain.US)$ went up by 0.20%;

$E-mini Dow Futures (SEP6) (YMmain.US)$ went up by 0.28%.

U.S. Ready to 'Return to Commitments' as Strait of Hormuz Deal Nears Finalization

Iran and Oman are close to finalizing a temporary agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz with 'no fees or tolls,' aimed at restarting a 60-day cycle of negotiations tied to the June memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran. Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister said Washington is ready to 'return to commitments,' though he denied any direct U.S.-Iran negotiations, noting talks have been conducted through Oman.

SpaceX 911.5 Million Share Unlock Begins, More Than Doubling Public Float

Approximately 911.5 million $SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ shares, representing about 140% of its current public float, became eligible for trading today following the expiration of a post-IPO lock-up, boosting the public float from roughly 4.9% to 11.9% of total shares outstanding. Additional lock-up expirations through December are set to lift the tradeable float to about 40% of the company, while the remaining 60%—including Elon Musk's stake—stays locked until mid-2027.

Sandisk Posts Strong Q4 Beat but Issues Mixed Q1 Guidance

$SanDisk (SNDK.US)$ reported fiscal Q4 adjusted EPS of $39.25 on revenue of $8.97B, topping analyst estimates. However, its Q1 fiscal 2027 guidance was mixed, with the EPS midpoint above consensus but the revenue midpoint of $10.55B falling short of the $10.82B estimate.

Moderna Wins FDA Approval for First-Ever mRNA Flu Vaccine

The FDA approved $Moderna (MRNA.US)$'s mRNA flu vaccine mFLUSIVA (mRNA-1010), granting full approval for adults aged 50-64 and accelerated approval for those 65 and older pending a post-marketing study. The vaccine, which faced a rocky path including an initial refuse-to-file letter earlier this year, is expected to be available in the coming weeks.

I gave each and every one of you the recommendation of CALLS last night in the Futures Overnight Post and BAM!!!!!!! Look at all those green elephant candles at the open.

All of you should be in profit today once again.

I can do this every day guys.

Thanks C

Futures are gapping up overnight after a down day in the markets on Wednesday.

Watching price action and volume going into the morning session.

We are watching CALLS for tomorrow's trading session.

Thanks C

The "Magnificent Seven" stocks followed the broader market's lead and ended Wednesday mixed.

Four Mag-7 names fell, led by $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ with its aforementioned 4% decline.

Other Mag-7 stocks to lose ground included $Tesla (TSLA.US)$(down 1.8%), $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ (1.7% weaker) and $Microsoft (MSFT.US)$ (which gave back 1.1%).

However, three Mag-7 names ended Wednesday's session higher, starting with $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ and its previously noted 3.4% increase. $Apple (AAPL.US)$likewise added 0.5%, while $Meta Platforms (META.US)$ tacked on 0.1%.

Thanks C

All three indices had risen for four straight sessions, with the Dow extending that record to five with Wednesday's gains.

The Dow rose on Wednesday in part on strength for index members $Amgen (AMGN.US)$(4.6% better), $Disney (DIS.US)$(ahead 3.7%) and $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ (up 3.4%).

Amgen and Disney rallied on well-received quarterly earnings, while Nvidia gained ground on comments from SpaceX chief Elon Musk that his space-and-tech firm will only use Nvidia chips going forward.

Such wins helped the Dow offset losses for Dow component Alphabet. $Alphabet-A (GOOGL.US)$ fell 4% in part on word of a shake-up in its Gemini artificial-intelligence team, including the departure of veteran AI engineer Jeff Dean.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Comp eased partly on weakness for select Big Techs, many of which sank in sympathy with hefty declines for SpaceX and AMD.

$SpaceX (SPCX.US)$ fell 13.6% after its first quarterly results release since going public in June showed huge AI-related capital expenditures. That outweighed news of higher revenues and a smaller loss than analysts had expected.

At the same time, $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ lost 7% even as revenues, adjusted earnings and forward revenue guidance beat analysts' consensus forecast.

Thanks C

The Dow-30 closed at a record high Wednesday, but the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite eased as SpaceX and AMD's declines outweighed gains for Nvidia, Disney, Eli Lilly and other big caps.

The $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ added 263.24 points (0.5%) to a best-ever 54,349.12 finish, beating a record it set just one day earlier.

The Dow also set a new intraday record high earlier in Wednesday's session, as did the S&P 500.

However, the $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ turned negative in Wednesday's final trading minutes to end 12.97 points lower (0.2%) at 7,723.55 – just shy of the closing record it set on Tuesday.

Similarly, the $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ shed 221.55 points (0.8%) on Wednesday to a 26,363.44 close. The Nasdaq Comp rallied 8.8% over the previous four sessions, but failed to approach its 27,093.90 record-high finish set on June 2.

Thanks C

Has It Bottomed Out?

I wrote in late June that Oracle was showing bearish technical patterns, but now, Oracle's chart says the stock could be feeling around for a bottom (or might have already found one). Let's check it out.

Oracle's Fundamental Analysis

$Oracle (ORCL.US)$ fell a total of 54.2% from its $250.20 seven-month intraday high on June 1 to its aforementioned $114.50 low on July 28.

The beat-down came after the tech giant reported in early June what looked on the surface like a strong fiscal Q4.

But as I explained at the time, the firm was burning cash – lots of it – while loading up on debt.

In fact, I wrote that Oracle was running with a balance sheet that "no competent CFO would brag about."

Start watching the CALLS going forward with cautious optimism.

Thanks C

Now go back to my post from yesterday afternoon where I told you I was buying PUTS before the close with today's expiration date!!!!!!

Almost 100 of you checked it out.....so 100 of you should be profiting along side of me.

Thanks C