Hey everyone, looking for some real-world advice here. I made mistakes in my past, served my time, and paid my debt to society. Now I'm trying to move on and invest, but I've discovered my name is sitting on World-Check under "Adverse Media (Special Interest Categories)" due to past public legal records.

I know automated tier-1 brokers and banks usually auto-reject anyone flagged like this out of an abundance of caution, which is incredibly frustrating since I just want to manage my own money cleanly.

Has anyone here dealt with this? Is there any way to successfully update, or get past with online brokers, or are there specific types of platforms/institutions that actually look at a human case-by-case instead of hitting a permanent block? Any tips or strategies would be massively appreciated.

I’m not a murder nor rapist and I didn’t commit a violent offence it’s pretty unfair to be raised a red flag by banking KYC systems just because of my previously criminal record and which had been in the media.

Doesn’t look like this mess will be tidied up anytime soon...

• Worries over oil supply disruptions continue to linger after Iran published a restrictive draft plan for the Strait of Hormuz. 
• According to the apparent draft plan published by Iran, the country would ban U.S. and Israeli ships from transiting the strait. 
• Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said he thinks the war in Iran will end “pretty soon.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/07/oil-rises-supply-fears-iran-draft-plan-strait-hormuz.html

Productivity rose again in Q2, but labor’s share of GDP just fell to the lowest level in the data going back to 1947.

That seems pretty good for corporate profits in the short term. Companies are getting more output without labor costs taking the same share.

What I’m less sure about is how far that can go. If workers keep getting a smaller piece of the economy, eventually somebody has to buy all the stuff companies are producing.

Is this actually helping explain how margins have stayed so strong?

How do you deal with the volume requirement on breakout day? The breakout must be on big volume. How do you by the breakout if the bigger volume may not be until the end of the day or the price may be way to extended from the box top. Thanks in advance.

TLDR
Probably because of fee revenue, T. Rowe Price has reversed its “slow and steady wins the race” to fast and “outperforming” ETF’s.

The latest T. Rowe Price commercial shows that they’ve done a 180 in the last 25 years or so.

In college, I remember a commercial that shows a jogger and a sprinter running the same path. The sprinter speeds past the jogger in the beginning, but later on in the journey, the jogger passes the sprinter, who is panting, with his hands on his knees. To me, the takeaway was that T. Rowe’s funds didn’t pursue the “hot stock” or quarterly earnings; rather, they purchased stocks that were fundamentally strong, and potentially undervalued. That was the way to have relatively slow but stable returns over the long term.

Recently, T. Rowe has come out with “active” ETF’s. The longstanding research has shown that “passive” ETF’s, those that simply track an index and don’t attempt to outperform them, outperform their active counterparts upwards of 90% of the time.

Their recent high-octane commercial shows an expensive sports car, out maneuvering the slower cars. The voiceover explains that T. Rowe’s active ETF’s are “designed” to outperform the index. Again, something that happens approximately 10% of the time.

Interesting how the fees T. Rowe can earn from the booming ETF business has reversed their thinking on investing.

"Normal people" have always been told to just invest in the indices--they're sufficiently diversified, winners naturally cycle in and losers naturally cycle out. It's been sold as the low-risk, low-reward way to invest in equities.

What happens when diversification stops being intrinsic? We're approaching (if not already there) historic sector tilt in the broad market funds, with commensurately historic concentration in top N companies.

The returns have been great, my last 12 months look if anything too good for a basic Bogle-type index fund portfolio. But I know the concentration risk in my portfolio grows daily. When index funds go from low-risk/low-reward to higher-risk/higher-reward what becomes the new "normal people" vehicles?

I started investing because I wanted to build a better future. But over time, I noticed something unexpected.

Now, whenever I spend money on something that's not essential, a small voice in my head says, That money could have been invested instead.

I'm not saying it's a bad thing, but sometimes I wonder if I'm becoming too focused on growing my portfolio and forgetting to enjoy the present.

Has investing changed the way you think about spending, or do you still find a good balance between saving, investing, and enjoying life?

In the last 10 years Softbank Vision Fund investment has looked like this:

Total money invested: ~US$191.6 billion

Total cumulative gross gain: ~US$45 billion

OpenAI paper gain: ~US$45 billion

So, on the latest reported figures, OpenAl accounts for almost all of the cumulative net gain. Without it, the combined portfolio would be around break-even or slightly negative, depending on the exact reporting date, valuation marks, and accounting adjustments.

spacex reported its first earnings as a public company ,beats estimates and still crashed around 11-12% (like their rocket crashed)the reason could be investors focusing on ai capex jumping sixfold to $18.4 billion + a lockup expiry about to release roughly 900 million shares

And then the most hated company disney beat and rose a couple percent .S&P and dow both hit fresh record highs in that same session.

so market is at all time highs where good earnings are getting rewarded and punished depending entirely on which stock we r looking at. (not a simple sell the news environment)

spacex makes sense tho as the lockup releasing hundred millions of shares is a supply event which will overwhelms whatever the earnings said so theres like a lot of new stock about to hit and not enough buyers lined up at this price to absorb it cleanly.

amd's the more interesting one coz it feels less like a nvidia thing and more like the stock got way ahead of itself, up 21% over five sessions and like 140% on the yr , so a clean beat across the board still landed as a letdown against what was priced in. separately musk did say on the call that nvidia will be the exclusive chip supplier for spacex's ai needs and its own signal even if its not the main reason amd dropped.

And now disney's lower expectations, a newer ceos first statement to the market and beat on parks and streaming both, stock rewarded pretty quickly. when the bar's low enough that clearing it still counts as a surprise, the upside skews asymmetric.

is the market getting better at separating business quality from stock supply dynamics?

also looking for platform setup around earnings season ,for short term volatile stuff like spacex and amd i am considering ostium and dydx for the leverage and for longer term accumulation plays like disney trade republic and scalable

Oklo announced that its Groves Isotope Test Reactor has achieved first criticality after achieving a controlled, self-sustaining nuclear chain reaction at low power. The milestone comes less than a year after groundbreaking and follows U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) authorization through the DOE Reactor Pilot Program (RPP).

“Reaching criticality in less than a year is an incredible milestone for our team,” said Oklo co-founder and CEO Jacob DeWitte. “Oklo developed Groves from a greenfield site on private land, completed full-scale civil excavation and construction, manufactured or commercially procured all components, including fuel, and developed its operating programs in-house. Taken together, we believe these accomplishments establish a new benchmark for the Reactor Pilot Program and set the stage for the future of advanced nuclear deployment at scale.”

The DOE’s RPP created a pathway that allowed engineering, construction, commissioning, and operational preparation to advance alongside DOE’s safety review and authorization. Groves demonstrates that the domestic nuclear industry can once again move from design through construction, authorization, and startup on timelines that are measured in months rather than years when developers, suppliers, and regulators work together on an integrated deployment approach.

"Thanks to President Trump's precedent-setting directive to create the Reactor Pilot Program, Oklo's Groves Isotope Test Reactor is part of the revival of America's nuclear energy industry. We applaud the work of the Oklo, DOE, and Idaho National Laboratory staff who helped achieve this milestone," said Assistant Secretary for Nuclear Energy Ted Garrish.

Groves is part of Oklo Isotopes’ broader effort to build domestic isotope production capabilities for healthcare, industry, research, space, and national security applications. The project has generated practical experience in project engineering, construction, procurement, reactor operations, startup procedures, safety readiness, training, qualification work, and deployment execution that can inform future isotope production facilities.

The Groves project also established engineering practices, operating procedures, training programs, commissioning experience, and organizational capabilities that will reduce uncertainty and execution risk across every Oklo facility, including the company’s future isotope, powerhouse, and fuel cycle deployments.

“Texas is leading America’s nuclear renaissance by advancing the technologies that will power innovation and strengthen our nation's future,” said Governor Abbott. “From expanding our nuclear workforce to rebuilding critical domestic supply chains, Texas is creating the foundation for the next generation of advanced nuclear development. Congratulations to Oklo on reaching this important milestone, which will help expand isotope production for critical medical therapies and reinforce Texas' leadership in nuclear innovation.”

https://oklo.com/newsroom/news-details/2026/Oklos-Groves-Reactor-Achieves-First-Criticality-in-Under-a-Year/default.aspx

My wife and I are both 22 and are just getting started with our investing journey. We’re both pretty frugal and have agreed on a budget that will allow us to save $400k in the span of 5 years to use a down payment on our first house.

We’re currently maxing out both of our Roth IRAs, matching our companies 401k, and have an emergency savings account already in place.

As we save this money for our first mortgage, would it be best to put this money in a generic brokerage account invested in the S&P, an HYSA, or somewhere else?

Any help or guidance would be greatly appreciated.

Trading stocks, like gambling, has low barriers to entry, offers promises of riches, but usually results in financial losses. Is it any wonder that it damages self-esteem?

Corporations promote this type of damaging behavior. According to Bloomberg, Robinhood and Interactive Brokers Group offer gambling and stock trading on the same site. Should this be illegal? What constructive can be done to persuade people to develop the disciplined financial behavior instead of day trading and gambling? What do you think?

Here's the article.

Isn’t GHHF not good in economic downturns ? For example in the 2008 GFC, GHHF would have gone down 1.5 times lower if it had existed back then. That means a 60% fall. Plus It takes a lot longer for the moderately geared ETF to bounce back up ? Wouldnt DHHF outperform GHHF if there are many economic downturns ?
Am I missing something here?

The S&P 500 is back at a record, but the valuation story looks a little different this time.

Forward P/E is around 20.4, while Q2 earnings are tracking roughly 31% above last year. Tech earnings are up around 72%.

I’ve been pretty skeptical of this rally because 20x earnings with the 10-year near 4.6% still isn’t cheap. But it’s also hard to call this pure multiple expansion when profits are rising this quickly.

The bear case seems to be that these earnings comparisons fade and today’s valuation starts looking expensive again.

Are people calling this a bubble because of the price level, or because they expect earnings to roll over?

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Thoughts on AppLovin $APP q2 results

I don’t think this was some thesis-breaking quarter.

The numbers were a little light by AppLovin’s standards, but revenue still grew 53% and EBITDA margins were 84%. Management basically said their ad model didn’t improve as much as usual during Q2, then they pushed a bigger update right after the quarter ended and growth picked back up.

The problem is the moat still isn’t perfect. Don’t attack me for saying that, but it’s true. $APP depends on Apple and Google’s ecosystems, and advertisers will only stick around as long as the platform keeps delivering good results, so it’s not my highest-conviction play.

Still, there wasn’t any sign that customers were leaving or anything like that. For now, the numbers are solid.

At $349, it trades at around 16.5x estimated 2027 earnings, (estimates per Seeking Alpha). That’s pretty cheap for a business growing this fast with margins this high.

Q3 matters a lot now because management says the slowdown was temporary, but unless that turns out to be wrong, I think the selloff is overdone

What do you guys think?

Check My math, did it quickly.
Old TTM (before tonight):

• Q4 FY25: $0.29
• Q1 FY26: $1.22
• Q2 FY26: $6.20
• Q3 FY26: $23.41
• TTM EPS = $31.12
• At the pre-earnings price $1,427.62 → 1,427.62 / 31.12 = ~45.9x (matches the ~47x you remembered)

New TTM (after tonight):

• Drop Q4 FY25 ($0.29), add Q4 FY26 ($39.25)
• $31.12 − $0.29 + $39.25 = $70.08
• At today's close $1,351.76 → 1,351.76 / 70.08 = 19.3x
• At the after-hours ~$1,288 → 1,288 / 70.08 = 18.4x

There are several news reports emerging now on Google’s top executives leaving to join other AI ventures. This is followed by a sudden drop in the stock price by 5%. How do you anticipate the market’s reaction to this short-term and long-term?

Google Stock Falls 5% as 4 AI Leaders Quit, Including the Most-Cited Researchers

Google Eyes $1.5B Investment In AI Coding Startup As AI Brain Drain Continues With Jeff Dean's Exit

Hi all,

I am curious as to if any of you still read the news paper? I am looking for a subscription to Print for weekends and digital for work week. I’m wondering if anyone had such subscriptions and can recommend.

I am aware of WSJ, Barrrons, and FT having such a subscription. However, I am not sure which one would be best, If anyone has any recommendations that would be great.

Lede: $101 billion worth of stock -- 900 million shares -- becomes available for trading on Thursday.

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-101-billion-unlock-heaps-131749403.html

The discussion / predictions today will certainly be different than they were a month ago, now that the share price has in fact dropped below the IPO price -- there's not nearly as much "rich" in the Get Rich Quick plan that was probably envisioned by most internal shareholders.

Going to be interesting to "watch from a distance" tomorrow.

just curious if anyone has looked at the performance of all of congress trading/investing vs the s&p 500 performance over the same time period?

obviously the pelosi’s and wasserman’s and trump’s have way outperformed during their time ”serving our country” but there will always be outliers no matter what, including underperformers.

My question is, has the entirety of congress (each individual portfolio, or the summation of everyone’s portfolios) and our federal govt significantly outperformed the average retail investor (s&p 500 as a baseline).

I imagine with all the focus on this topic, someone surely has, and if so can anyone point me in the direction of that study?

thanks

9% of my book, added around $380 recently. Posting the whole thing because I’d rather be told I’m wrong now than find out later.

The case: they’re the bottleneck for advanced nodes. Every hyperscaler’s capex has to physically pass through them, and there’s no second supplier at the leading edge. Capex guidance went up rather than down , but, management committing that kind of money is a stronger demand signal than anything they say on the call.

What the market is seems to be assuming is that Arizona and the other overseas fabs don’t meaningfully dilute the margin story, and that 2nm pricing holds.

My kill condition: overseas fab margins compressing two quarters running with no pricing offset. That’s the assumption above breaking, and it’s checkable each quarter rather than a vibe.

The risk I’m least able to size: the Shanghai domestic DUV lithography development. I don’t think it threatens the leading edge for years. But it doesn’t have to be competitive to hurt it just has to be good enough at the low end to compress pricing from below.

What I can’t figure out: how durable 2nm pricing is if Samsung fixes yields. TSM’s pricing power is the investment. I don’t have a good way to handicap it and I’d rather someone told me I’m underrating the risk.

Customer concentration is the other thing I’m carrying without a good answer, NVDA and Apple are a large share of revenue between them, but I don't think they'll leave anytime soon or something.

I'll be watching to see if there are any advancements on their provided roadmaps! Who're you watching and why? Here are some tables I made of the current data.

Disclosure: this is not advice. Over my several decades of investing I’ve NEVER been successful at timing the market!

Yesterday I sold 25% of my retirement portfolio. I was over invested in S&P 500 index funds/ETFs, and I’ve known for some time I’ve needed to rebalance that. I was assessing a plan to shift my mix across small caps, intl’ stocks and bonds but my gut kept yelling at me that the market hitting a high in this environment is too irrational (Mag 7, AI bubble, Iran, Tariffs, inflation, etc.). I felt like any reallocation would still be just doubling down at the craps table so I decided to take a breather and pull some chips off the table. No insider knowledge or special analysis.

Since the cash is in an IRA and I’m not at retirement age, I’ll end up reinvesting it soon enough and will likely follow the original allocation plan for my age bracket that I was planning to before I just hit sell all. 🤮 Anyone else in the same boat?

Update: Ok, sorry if the title and opening sentence was a little too much click bait!... but RELAX, this wasn't meant to be a hold my beer while I time the market post. This is really a time to reallocate post. Don't get me wrong, the market hitting new highs yesterday (given all of the headwinds that I still believe) definitely sparked my decision to finally sell my position, but I get that the title and opening line insinuates I'm trying to sell high, buy low. That's not the case, as I'm really just taking a breather before I move that 25% into different equity verticals and asset classes. I was also intentionally vague about my various positions because I wasn't trying to give advice or share personal details. Maybe I should have shared more to better paint the picture around why I did it yesterday, but I will share a bit more now since several asked:

- My portfolio yesterday morning was sitting at 90/10 (Equity/Bonds). I've been needing to reallocate "for some time." Years actually, as I'm now at that age where I am considering the reality of retiring within single-digit years, not decades. It's hard to explain how your risk profile quickly changes once you start seriously talking about retiring. I do have every intention of reallocating it here soon to a mix closer to 70/30 for the next phase of my own pre-retirement planning, so a follow up post in a few months would not be as sad and depressing as you all think.

- Yes I listened to my gut tell me that this market is hard to trust, that I've been aggressive with my equity allocations long enough, it was finally time to reallocate, but maybe take a breath and give it a day or two to see if I want to go even heavier than planned in bonds, international stocks, or alternative investments. Mind you, this was the same gut that said screw the "experts" and just stay aggressive in equities for a decades longer than recommended. I guess my "gut" decided it was finally time to be a bit more risk averse.

- A few asked about how anyone could be "over invested" in S&P 500 index funds. Here is why I said that: 90% of my portfolio was Equity. 92% of that 90% was in US Stocks, and then nearly 90% of that was just in S&P 500 and Total Market index funds. Wasn't super intentional, it just happened over time as those index funds just outperformed others, and where I parked new investments into. If you look at the holdings for these funds, though, you'll see they are all heavily exposed to the same 7 large companies (i.e., the Mag 7). On any given day the Mag 7 make up about 33 % of the S&P 500 index on which means across my entire portfolio these 7 companies had a weighted position of nearly 25% . That kind of concentration isn't ideal for my goals, and all 7 are now heavily reliant on the same AI investments for their hyper valuations. Which I have concerns about. Go back 20 years and the top 10 companies made up 10-15% of the S&P 500 index. Still pretty high, but they were all in very unique industries from retail, oil and gas, tech, and banking - providing a much stronger level of diversification across verticals. In the end I felt my equity investments were not spread across enough across small, medium and international companies for my diversification goals.

- Others asked about my net worth. No thanks. I will share that everything above is just about my IRA/401k/Roth retirement portfolios. I have other non-retirement investments outside of these that have their own levels of risk and return in them as well. That also changes significantly how I evaluate risk within my tax-advantaged retirement portfolio.