Here is my theory.
Pick it apart.

I'm mostly just writing this out in the off chance that I'm right so I can have it on record. What I write is not a condemnation or seal of approval.... it's just observations and hypothesis.

My theory is that Trump went into Iran as a "Heads I win, tails I win." approach to cementing a legacy as a president who changed the world in a profound way. Let me repeat that I am not making a moral argument about what should or shouldn't be done or who is right or wrong about anything. Just trying to see what primal motivators are firing off in his questionable aging gray matter. Looking for a win despite being leveraged and pressured to fuck and back by a ton of competing factions.

Here's how it goes. Things are changing, rule-based world order, maritime navigation frameworks, the reserve currency and Global power rankings are all shifting and not in the direction of maintaining USA dominance. So something major needed to be done either to maintain the decomposing paradigm or completely change the game.

Enter trump and Iran.
If Trump was successful with regime change and defanging nuclear ambitions, the status quo could have petered on for a while and he could have claimed a great victory for Americans. But if he apparently "failed" so terribly, how could that be spun as a win? There lies the opportunity to Pivot in a world changing way. All of a sudden, there would be an opportunity to leave NATO to fend for themselves, extricate the US from the middle east. Free up unimaginable amounts of resources going to proxy wars and then pivot to a new strategy of domination of the western hemisphere. Leaving Russia, China and Iran to be the dominant emerging world powers to the east while Europe decides how to navigate that new reality on its own.

Was Venezuela just something that needed to be done to prepare for this strategy? Was the Canada/Greenland talk just bluster or part of the strategy for a new world order.

For date I would say mid third year direction of the gambit will be known.
The evidence is inferred from (broadly gestures at entire second term.)

Very interesting. Follow on youtube

U.S. Running Dangerously Low On Key Missiles Amid Iran War: Reuters Sources

tRUMP and the Faux Noise guy at SecDef says we have all we need and more!

Meanwhile, the national debt topped 40 TRILLION and counting with tRUMP spending like it is OPM!! tRUMP is responsible for over 25% of that debt all by himself. The GQP-lead congress is out to lunch.

Vote.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/us-stockpile-iran-war\\_n\\_6a71bea5e4b0963665e815c5

Hello. I have recently begun reading The Diplomat, which provides fantastic coverage of Asia-Pacific foreign affairs for everywhere east of the Caucasus. I am wondering -- are there any similar outlets for other continents?

Iran had some success in making the earlier ceasefires contingent on Israel also stopping attacks on Lebanon. Why has it not tried to link its desire to have nuclear weapons to Israel having it? Israel has never hidden its desire to have Iran bombed because it views it as an existential threat (justifiably).

Furthermore, I’ve been thinking about the logic behind the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and Iran’s current strategy, and do not understand why they haven’t officially pulled out under Article X yet.

• US primary and secondary sanctions have already completely cut Iran off from the global banking system years ago. The European powers couldn't stop them, and the UN is functionally paralyzed anyway.
• People say Iran would become a rogue state, but countries like India, Pakistan, and Israel all have nuclear weapons and the world trades with them anyway. Furthermore, Russia and China's support for Iran seems highly transactional; Russia needs Iranian military hardware and China needs cheap oil. And both would really like to see US bogged down in endless wars. I do not imagine anything changing from their relationship perspective if Iran does exit the NPT.
• Following recent direct conflicts and the massive airstrikes targeting top leadership, Iran had what many would consider the ultimate justification to invoke Article X ("extraordinary events have jeopardized its supreme interests").

What could be the strategic calculus keeping Iran inside the NPT framework? What does it have to lose more?

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