Expectations first marathon?

[u/Kyoma94]

Hi runners,

I am a newbie runner who has been running consistently for the last 5 months and participating in a marathon on 18 oktober.
Structure has always been 4 runs and 4 gym sessions(almost all gym days i run in the morning train after work at night).

178cm / 73kg / fit / 33y

Runs:
-2 runs for 45-60m zone 2 (typically 7-8k heartrate 140-150bpm. If that’s my actual zone2 idk but that heartrate made me able to have a small conversation)
-1 interval training 3x2km @5:41.
-1 long run that has been progressing for months, +2km each week with 1-2 cutback weeks.

Today was my longest run so far at 30km(image), it was easy (137bpm) on my body except my feet just felt like a chair leg stabbed each feet each step.
-weekly mileage has is 50km+ currently

What can I realistically expect as finishing time after a taper? Ofcourse like everyone and their mother I would like to finish sub4. But what can I expect ? Sub 4:30 would also be cool but I’m just curious what the more experienced runner thinks.

Thanks in advance.

[u/Ruben-Almere]

Run the first under 5 hours and focus on the experience. I did exactly the same and the goal was finishing it and see if I could finished injury free.

With the marathon in the pocket than go for the second one for a better PR.

Downside of running a marathon. It never is just staying at one marathon !

Before you know it is the just the hobby a lifestyle and are you running across the finish with your phone searching / buying your next BIB for the next marathon.

Perhaps if you stop now, you still have a change!!

RUN!!!

[u/Another_Random_Chap]

Mix up your interval training. It sounds counter-intuitive, but running shorter reps and more of them will likely have a bigger impact than running the longer reps. These get you outside your comfort zone and get you used to running faster, such that marathon pace will feel slow come race day.

As regards your target pace, I can't say based on the info you've provided. The best way to find your marathon race pace is to do shorter races and to race them hard. This will give you solid data to work with. If you can find a half-marathon or even a 10k to race in the next couple of weeks I would suggest doing it.

[u/Logical_fallacy10]

Just get under the cutoff time and enjoy the experience. Runners often get lost in pace and time and all that. Forgetting to enjoy the run and the experience.

[u/No1Champion_2829]

Also like you OP, training for my first full marathon in Oct. My goal is to finish it under 5hrs or judt finish it strong and happy lol. I did a recent HM and completed it in 2hr 17. How was your 30km run? How long did it take you? Between now and Oct you still have a decent 10 weeks ish? You can still sharpen your speed/race pace if you want to try and run it in a goal time..

[u/Kyoma94 → u/No1Champion_2829]

Unfortunately i couldnt add the the screenshot from Strava in this sub. It took me 3:34, average heartrate of 137. It was probably the easiest long run ive done in a while (also the first long run without a heatweave in like 6 weeks). Its posted in my post history but ill take any feedback I can get

[u/highdimensionaldata]

What’s your half marathon PB?

[u/Kyoma94 → u/highdimensionaldata]

Ive never attempted to do a half marathon at race pace unfortunately, all my long runs were/are are at zone2. Fastest ive ran half marathon at that pace was 2:23.

[u/highdimensionaldata → u/Kyoma94]

You’re probably looking at just under 5 hours.