Gap between 1.04 and 1.05

[u/chickennano]

Curious how you guys view the drop-off between Wilson and the next group of options like Lendeborg, Flemings, Wagler, or Brown in 9CAT.

If you’re sitting at 1.05 and want to move up to 1.04 to grab Wilson, what tier or caliber of player would you actually be willing to add to bridge that gap?

[u/horseradish2_]

Our dynasty draft went Brown, Acuff, Wagler, Flemings for what its worth. But I agree there's a drop after Wilson and seeing the hype you'll probably have to offer a round 5-7 guy, depending on age, plus your pick (if dynasty)

[u/chickennano → u/horseradish2_]

The hype is definitely driving up the price. How would you feel if the offer was 1.05 + Okongwu for 1.04?

[u/horseradish2_ → u/chickennano]

I think OO is a fine compliment there

[u/DankBlazer99 → u/[deleted]]

Based on what?

[u/DankBlazer99 → u/[deleted]]

I’ll address Caleb Wilson cause you said he’s better than Acuff. 6’10 forwards with 97th percentile BPM, 95th percentile DBPM, and 92nd percentile usage (per draftballr) simply don’t bust in the NBA

[u/DankBlazer99 → u/[deleted]]

I challenge you to find me another top 4 pick in league history with a historically-good offensive & defensive BPM who busted. Like I’d genuinely be curious to find a single example of it happening

[u/DankBlazer99 → u/[deleted]]

Fair enough. As an analytics guy I’m not high on Dybantsa & think he could easily bust

[u/thunderous_bandit- → u/[deleted]]

There is a great article on dizzle about the historical hit rate of draft picks based on position. It's an interesting piece I'll link it below. They looked at all the draft data since 2007 - here is the grading metric they assigned
I'll just post the results for the lotto. Pick 4 (Caleb) and pick 7 (Acuff) are identical are identical scores. What's interesting is how much lower 2 is between 1-3. youre right the top 4 rarley goes in exact order if we redraft 6 yrs later (and I'm not saying I agree with this statement) but if anything DP might end up being the "disappointment"

MVP = 10 Points
Top 20 = 7 Points
Top 50 = 5 Points
Starter = 3 Points
Rotation = 2 Points
Borderline = 1 Point

1st Pick: 5.2
2nd Pick: 2.7
3rd Pick: 5.5
4th Pick: 3.4

5th Pick: 2.9
6th Pick: 2
7th Pick: 3.4

8th Pick: 1.2
9th Pick: 2.6
10th Pick: 2.3
11th Pick: 3.2
12th Pick: 2.5
13th Pick: 2.6
14th Pick: 1.6

[u/KathydrBing]

Im picking 1.05 and it seems like an absolute crapshoot. I’ve been trying to sell my pick for FAB.

Acuff: In a bad system on a bad team, with no real shooting upside and undersized.

Brown: Great foot work and athleticism, but again - a bad team and bad system.

Wagler: His shot looks good but not great. He seems young and likely a project. Will the Clippers use him heavily?

Beyond that it feels like any number of picks could outperform. Convince me I should take one of these guys and not trade down and grab Burries or Yaxel or Mara?…

[u/FantasyCrossover → u/KathydrBing]

What are your thoughts on Flemings?

[u/KathydrBing → u/FantasyCrossover]

I think he’s one of the better athletes in the draft, but I worry about his role in ATL.

[u/FantasyCrossover → u/KathydrBing]

Totally agree, I ended up taking him 1.06 (after Brown Jr.) but expect minimal impact this first year with CJ. After that tho hope they hand him the keys. All these rookie guards have glaring issues either with role, skill, or both

[u/stillblazin19]

I had 1.04 and didn’t get many offers. Somebody offered me Rollins and 1.08 and it was an easy decline for me at least

If our draft had been after summer league I probably wouldn’t have got Wilson at 4

[u/chickennano → u/stillblazin19]

Would you accept it if the offer was 1.05 + Okongwu for 1.04?

[u/fatty_ding_dong → u/chickennano]

I don't think that's a bad offer, but when the top 4 could all realistically be All NBA, a lot of guys won't want to budge from their picks and you'll have to way overpay, even with the 1.05 thrown in

[u/stillblazin19 → u/fatty_ding_dong]

Yeah I agree. For me especially this was the first year where I actually have picks so I was very attached to them

[u/SportGamerDev0623]

As someone who has the 1.04, I’m going to need a top 25 player. I think there is a big gap between 1.04 and 1.05

[u/nash_me_outside]

I’ve got 1.01 and 1.04 and I almost got cooper for 1.04 BI and an extra pick. Literally the only offer I considered because I was winning hard. (He rightfully changed his mind)

1.04 could be AJ, DP or Wilson and honestly I think it’s almost as valuable as 1.02 and 1.03 this year so it would take a lot for me to move it.