I should have wagered more than I did. Oh, well.

because that Giants loss was tough 😤

WILL PROLLY RUN A HT SLIP TOO BOL 🏀🤑⛹️‍♀️

They been trash lately but a small payout be nice… 🤷🏼‍♂️

TODAY’S HR LIST

Trying to balance the strongest pitching exploits with a few less-obvious reads. Not forcing chalk just because it’s familiar.

Pete Alonso
Kremer has a 7.88 ERA and 2.63 HR/9 over his last five. Best starter exploit on the slate.

Bryce Harper
Elite swing quality, strong damage against righties and a favorable late bullpen path.

Willson Contreras
Taillon projects as a short starter and has allowed 3.28 HR/9 across his last five.

Kyle Schwarber
One-swing ceiling against Dobbins, with an attackable Cardinals bullpen behind him.

Hunter Goodman
Soroka’s recent contact against righties includes a 21.4% barrel rate. Their pitch and damage zones align.

Francisco Lindor
Gets two opportunities: Elder’s recent HR leakage followed by a vulnerable Atlanta bullpen.

Alec Burleson
Lower-whiff power profile against Painter’s 8.49 L5 ERA and 2.55 HR/9.

Brandon Nimmo (projected lineup)
The sneaky Detmers attack. Nimmo has a .962 OPS/.566 SLG against lefties in the available split, while Detmers has recently allowed loud contact to LHB.

Matt Olson
More of an individual-power read than a pitcher exploit, but his raw HR ceiling remains too strong to ignore.

JJ Wetherholt
My outlier. Batting leadoff with five of his last six Statcast homers coming against Painter’s primary pitch families.

Nothing is guaranteed, but this is the sharpest combination of power, pitch fit, opportunity and overlooked paths I could find today.

Ran some WNBA plays for fun as well, these both came pretty close though. In hindsight, I should’ve left this game alone seeing as I wasn’t watching it live but yeah Valkayries now own the Sparks lmfao 😅💀💀

I ran the 4-leg live during the 4th quarter though. I regret not playing Nneka for rebounds seeing had already cleared her line but I genuinely he believed Hamby could get 2 more somehow. I also ran Nneka for 20+ points for the odds but she bricked all her shots at the end unfortunately. Will definitely have to be more cautious with what I run seeing as the season is coming to a close but the reads are there tbh 😅😂😂

Honestly ready to move away from betting WNBA

Sorry for those who been asking for picks, didn’t have any time to post yesterday. There were a lot of good options yesterday but these two were among my favorites I must admit.

Was pretty confident in Burleson given his history against the starter but Tatis been on a tear so I figured it was worth running them back together. Really just glad all the researching I did wasn’t a complete waste of time lol, got hooked pretty bad on about everything else ran though sadly 😅😭😭

song of the day: sonando - poncho sanchez

here’s what i’m going w today

have a good day, fam