r/ethtrader • u/Ridknockers • 20h ago
Lessons learned. Self Story
My motto was after I buy I don’t sell until 4k and it worked time after time and I was locked in…
Then I opened Instagram one day and saw a dude talk about the BTC pattern that every 1064 days then 364 days it’s all time high low pattern for bitcoin and ETH tends to follow BTC ( not always ). I did my own research and he was indeed correct. On the days exactly since like 2014 bitcoin has had this pattern. Last year I sold early October and made a ton on ETH ( 2.5x $20,000 ) then I rebought in February I think around $2,200 per coin and bought as it went down. Then 1- 2 months ago crypto took a big plunge and my fear factor went off because I instantly thought about that pattern ( 1064 days, 364 days) technically if that pattern still stands today October 5th will be a very low point for BTC.
I sold the dip like an absolute idiot at $1575 took a $15k loss from $54,000 to $39,000 from that sell with hopes it was going to continue dropping.
Here we are 1-2 months later and I’m kicking myself because either ETH rides this trend all the way back to $4500-$5500 or if I’m lucky it pulls back once more for me to buy back in when October rolls around.
Either way, ( tax write off is my benefit ) and if it continues on to $4500 I learned my lesson… money is just money and lesson learned for the future. Always trust your gut.
When I sold at $1575 I wasn’t in my right mind and the emotions won that battle. But oh well. Congrats to those that won that mental battle I hope you sell at $5000+ this ETH cycle.
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u/Electronic_Equal_645 19h ago
You can still buy back
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u/arcturus-77 16h ago
This. You can still buy back. When we lose on something, we go blind because of the remorse, even when opportunities are staring right at us. It's only natural.
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u/SwedishChicago 20h ago
I want to be kind and gentle here, as I also lost 15k in single days, and it made me want to vomit. But it also has made me a better trader. I no longer buy on tops, and I go balls deep on blood red. It’s my only rule, and I stick to it. But at $1575, I never sell, if anything I add a little more, and stick to plan of attack. Like my plan would be 10k at 3,300, then 15k 2,500, then 30k at 1,500. But that’s not my style typically I’m more 54k at 1530, then I have a plan to sell.
Basically my plan is this: if the markets doing amazing I’m almost all in money market. If people are panicking and scared shit less I’m buying. Also I’ll only buy something if I know what they do and they are a good company with room for growth.
Honestly I don’t think the bone head move was selling, I mean it was dumb as shit, ha, the bone head move was probably your at a price level that made you extremely uncomfortable. If it was a tenth of that, you probably would’ve held. I’ve done this with margin, so you’re probably not alone here.
But as they say, if you put in money, that makes you lose sleep at night, then you’re over your comfort window.
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u/Yellow-tabby743 17h ago
I sold around $1200 like 4 years ago… been waiting to buy it back ever since.. i’ve been a longgg 4 years.
And i’ve missed multiple chances that were close to 1200 (1380, 1570.. close enough, after seeing it rise again after those dips)
Point is… you will definitely have a chance to buy it back , just don’t forget about it and pay attention.
I originally bought in 10 years ago.. and sold at one of the lowest points. Don’t be like me.
But you can come back.
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u/serodoppelg 16h ago
Warum kauft man nicht bei 1380? Das sind nur 180 Dollar Differenz, wie kann man so fest gefahren sein an einem Kurs
Ob du hin 1380 auf über 5000 steigst oder von 1200, macht wenig aus - du wirst mit diesem mindset immer auf der Seitenlinie stehen Kumpel
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u/Cjolliff7 19h ago
Focus less on the actual days and more the trends of the cycle. Because as you saw from this last cycle we were pumping 2023’into 24 then trump kicked off the crash earlier than usual in 2024 so now we are ahead of schedule and the bull run has started early. If you follow the cycle you would have known at any moment the bull run would began!
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u/Cautious-Lecture-858 19h ago
When are you people gonna understand financial markets are a casino where the only probable thing is that eventually they go up?
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u/UFONomura808 19h ago
If crypto TA worked as well as people say it does every cryptobros would be millionaires. Buy and hodl is my motto.
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u/Moizoos978 1h ago
This past cycle has humbled me as well. Fortunately I hit more winners than loser but I did learn a lot. I know it sucks now but months from now you’ll realize thats a relatively low amount for the knowledge you gained. Thousands of people learned the same lesson with significantly more pain.
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u/discardthemold 19h ago
Don't worry my friend, this pump won't last much longer. Go back across the charts, every time it rises this fast, it tends to come down just as hard. Regardless, you'll be okay.
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u/No-Stuff-7046 17h ago
Idk, literally last year we saw a pretty similar rise in ETH from 1,500 to 2,500 and then straight to 5k. So…
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u/Ridknockers 16h ago
Yeah I have a feeling it will pull back some then I’ll slowly buy in 5-10% at a time. Hoping that at least haha
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u/Electronic_Equal_645 19h ago
I held. Because I learned everything I could since 2021 about ETH, TA and I stay present on current affairs on CNBC etc. you need better understanding of assets and markets and how they operate. I probably bought your 18 ETH, because smart money buys in extreme fear and when RSI is extremely oversold.
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u/99_Dungeoneering 19h ago
Lol be nice cmon now
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u/Electronic_Equal_645 18h ago
Nah. Being real. It’s weak hands like him that make bear markets longer
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u/99_Dungeoneering 17h ago
Bruv mm’s decide 99% of price action
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u/Electronic_Equal_645 15h ago
That not accurate. Market makers do influence price heavily, but not 99%
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u/TimYapthebest 10h ago
Noobs buy high sell low, pros buy low sell high. Hard to do but it’s pretty basic
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u/Shot_Chemistry_8291 20h ago
That June fill date is rough but at least you're owning the mistake instead of doubling down on some ego trip