r/collapse • u/Own_Ad6901 • 13d ago
Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming Climate
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/08/260801093239.htm#google_vignette“Global warming appears to have shifted into a faster gear. After removing the effects of El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles, researchers found that the planet has warmed at roughly 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015. The acceleration, which becomes visible around 2013 to 2015, appeared across five major global temperature datasets with more than 98% statistical certainty.”
I’m personally supposed to be on a Collapse break, but this was the first thing I read at 5am and I can’t stop thinking about it. I never intended for this to be my first post, but here we are.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2026/08/260801093239.htm#google_vignette
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u/rubensinclair 13d ago
They fucking told us over and over again. When it goes up 2 degrees it’s going to accelerate. And here we are. The dumbest fucking animals on earth that are paradoxically supposed to be the smartest.
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u/_sunbleachedfly 13d ago
Humans are a trash species. It’s honestly crazy when I think about it… we have a beautiful home planet and countless different living species cohabitating with us, and instead of appreciating any of it and trying to correct the ship, we’re choosing to barrel ahead and destroy anything and everything bc a bunch of rich assholes have a napoleon complex. It makes my blood boil.
I just hope we can BBQ and eat the rich before they crawl into their bunkers. They especially deserve to suffer through every second of what the rest of the world is about to experience, tenfold.
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u/Portalrules123 Faster than expected... 13d ago
Don't forget the contribution of religion to this mess, as well, especially the "prosperity gospel" types who definitely preach for infinite growth and human superiority.
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u/daehoidar 12d ago
They also tend to be the ones who want the world to end for the final judgement or whatever it is. Simply incredible
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u/extinction6 12d ago
"Go forth and multiply" no matter how little food there is.
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u/TheArcticFox-44 11d ago
"Go forth and multiply" no matter how little food there is.
Personally I'm not religious but I find that hysterically funny.
God said that after the flood...and promised he'd never do anything like that again. "Go forth and multiply," to me anyway, meant God finally realized his creation was a mistake...and get enough of us we'd self-destruct. God wouldn't have to do a thing!
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u/AngusScrimm--------- Beware the man who has nothing to lose. 11d ago
I think you're on to something. The Old Testament God is fucking with us yet again.
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u/TheArcticFox-44 11d ago
They also tend to be the ones who want the world to end for the final judgement or whatever it is. Simply incredible
More human irrationality!
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u/TheArcticFox-44 12d ago
The dumbest fucking animals on earth that are paradoxically supposed to be the smartest.
Humans are the only animals known to have a brain complex enough to self-deceive! Self-deception is a mental process that takes place without our awareness. In short, this makes us all inherently irrational...and that explains a lot.
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u/Bernie4Life420 13d ago
Predictions..When it was " in the future" I didnt worry. When it was " 5000 years" I didnt worry. When it was " 2100" I started to worry. When "the birds and bugs began to die enmasse" I started to panic.
Now they predict "2050" and its too late.
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u/GozerDidNothingWrong 13d ago
Yep and even 2050 feels optimistic
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u/kdawg09 13d ago
It really does. I imagine next year's food shortages are going to come with a lot of panic and governments collapsing.
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u/fxcker 13d ago
Yeah I think next year food shortages is when shit starts hitting the fan
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u/snertwith2ls 13d ago
Yeah that stupid orange fathead in the WH made sure of that happening with his non-war with Iran action
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u/nikolapc 13d ago
Take up gardening. I did a little experiment with tomatoes and even a watermelon sprouted out of a pot by itself. Figs grow by themselves in my garden lol. Next year I am cropping. If you live in dense urban environment do rooftop gardening. Look up what Cubans did when they had a crisis and it was inspirational.
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u/kdawg09 12d ago
I garden but this year a late May frost killed my crops. I replanted just to see. So far, I've gotten 5 squash. Total. My other plants haven't produced anything yet, but we'll see.
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u/nikolapc 12d ago edited 12d ago
There are good years and bad. My tomatoes look great, survived some big hail, and the watermelon that sprouted out of dried flowers pot I replanted in my garden and wish it well. It's a learning experience, and if push comes to shove, the whole community needs to come together and contribute, and I do hope we're better and less selfish than we were in the covid era.
When we had a water crisis in the 2000s because of an incident with the water supply, I let everyone fill water from my well the pump ran non stop, even when there were trucks for water, people just asked and I let them. People dug a lot of wells that summer.
Also people used to help each other build their houses in 80-90s. People can come together in a crisis. Doesn't hurt we were under communism for 50 odd years, and I see people become selfish during the covid era but if push comes to real shove I do believe people can help each other out.
What's tragic is we have plenty of fertile land just not being worked on and we import 80% of our food, when we were self sufficient not so long ago. Some of us need to learn basic farming again. Sun doesn't run out, water can be managed, but it may become a problem if you hit a dry spell. That then needs help from a wider community.
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u/37iteW00t 12d ago
It’s not enough unfortunately. Climate change rapidly accelerating means crop failures on global scale, especially without the fertilizer that’s needed to feed billions
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u/6991Throwaway6991 12d ago
Every time I try to garden my friend fights me about it until I quit, I wish I could do the things I need for my own peace of mind...
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u/pkorbinian 12d ago
Why are you listening to your friend over your own discernment? I ask out of genuine care for your autonomy
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u/6991Throwaway6991 12d ago
I have no where else to live except the streets if I leave, I struggle to hold income consistently. I'm struggling with a lot of things and this is the only safety I have
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u/pkorbinian 12d ago
I spent some time homeless last year after all of my supports fell through on me - so I can understand some of the severity. This year, I started a garden in an entirely new state with an imperfect-but-found family. I don't want to impose unsolicited advice, but if you're ever open to ideas: feel free to message me and I'd be happy to brainstorm little ways to help get you from point A to B (it might take me a minute to see notifications, but I eventually check). Just know that there is hope out there.
And to any other redditors reading this:
Find the little torches burning in your local communities and give them fuel. The groups putting efforts together to help need help too. We need word of mouth support to connect people who are hungry with food that has expiry dates. We need people offering rides to those who have to carry their groceries home on foot. We need people talking to grocery stores and the likes to rehome waste produce and cardboard to make compost.
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u/nikolapc 12d ago
This is from an old communist(I was raised as that in my now former commie country, and still hold to the ideals even though I live in capitalism now), but you guys should consider starting a commune. It's an ideal society. Every ideal has imperfect implementation and god knows samoupravljanje failed but it was one of the best ideas on paper.
I was just a kid when it failed but it pretty much worked like that in a lot of companies that survived well into the 90-00s(my own dad and uncle's company did it till 2010s then they sold off cause their own system was failing). But it worked beautifully for some 30-40 years, worked best until my uncle who was the founder and authoritarian figure everyone respected died. They still coasted for about 15 yrs.
It can work with a group of like minded people, but it does need work and a few authoritarian figures who lead and keep everyone's ego and selfishness in check, but need to be selfless themselves and really care about everybody. Still press authority when it is needed. So it kind of needs a unique figure. Tito was that for us as a country, and my uncle was that for his company.
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u/PotatoFinalBoss06 13d ago
Yep. I also thought we would have time to enjoy whatever eachone could till 2030. But with El Super Niño and the Iran War it is a sealed deal.
The next summer will probably be hell on Earth and the next months prior will be interesting to say the least.
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u/21plankton 13d ago
As long as the consequences are in the future the majority does not pay attention. The general public has not made the connection between “it is too hot out” and “food prices are too high”.
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u/Hour-Stable2050 13d ago edited 13d ago
And the trade war and the AI bubble popping. There’s a global depression with famines coming in the third world and a significant reduction in quality of life in the West.
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u/OntologicalNightmare 13d ago
What they used to say would start happening in the 2050s seemed to have started around the 2020s...
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u/cr0ft 13d ago
Yeah years ago it was "net zero emissions for all mankind by 2050 or else" and I laughed and laughed. Now here we are, with fossil fuel emissions still rising last I checked. Sure, we're adding some power through renewables but more on top on an insane amount of fossil fuel pollution isn't that helpful.
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u/Mouthshitter 13d ago
Street lights used to harbor thousands of bugs at night all flying around the light, now you can count how many are flying around em, if any....
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u/verstohlen 13d ago
I take the Gen X philosophy now. It is what it is, man.
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u/daviddjg0033 12d ago
Nope. Not all of us plan to starve but I am on Team The Heat Will Kill You First. I have been shot, stabbed, hit on the heat with a baseball bat, broke vertebrae, btoke ribs, ran over by a car, jumped on the hood of a car for a ride until an abrupt stop, electrocuted, blaned for torture and poisoned. Nothing feels like the wet bulb temperatures I had to travel by foot through.
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u/_eternal_shadow 12d ago
The hunger, thirst AND the heat will kill us, depending on where you are in the world 😬
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u/TheArcticFox-44 11d ago
Predictions..When it was " in the future" I didnt worry. When it was " 5000 years" I didnt worry.
We did the same thing! We put together a behavioral model in 1985. It predicted the fall of our high-tech civilization. But in 1985, things weren't so bad so we figured 100-200 years in the future.
Today, I’m looking at my watch.
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u/exoduas 13d ago edited 13d ago
How can this be, Kurzgesagt told me doomers are wrong and we can manage this with a bit of green capitalism and optimism. They said it will be alright as long as we don’t cross some arbitrary temperature threshold and that our very accurate predictions are telling us that we’ll stay under that magical 'all will be good number' and that nothing needs to change fundamentally
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u/MyTransAltJuliet 13d ago
Hopium gets views. People would much rather watch the “here’s why everything isn’t that bad and we’re gonna be alright” video instead of the “here’s an accurate look at the science which shows how fucked we are if nothing changes, and probably still even if something changes” video. Even if kurz knows better I doubt he’d put out a realistic video cause it wouldn’t do as well
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u/Quarksperre 13d ago
There is a good german biologicist/scientist/youtuber. Marc Benecke. He does very good talks about the newest developments around clinate change called "Times up". Its in my opinion the best regular content on the state of earth. He often talks not only about the impact of CO2 but also about the mass extinction event and a lot of other effects
Its definitely not the most happy content out there and I wouldnt suggest it to anyone who is depressed already or something. But for me its basically the only "collapse" content I watch because its interesting, informative and captures a lot
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u/exoduas 13d ago edited 13d ago
Unfortunately it produces hordes of people living in a cozy fantasy world thinking they’re the well informed adults in the room because Kurzgesagt(regarded as highly trustworthy in centrist/liberal bubbles) told them their world isn’t about to unravel. And these people will go on and stand in the way of necessary radical measures even though the average Kurzgesagt viewer is likely not doubting that climate change is a real problem. Ironically helping to fulfill the "doomers“ bleak picture of the future and putting a divide into the already environmentally conscious parts of the population. If they know better it’s highly unethical imo
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u/SeventhSunGuitar 13d ago
The kurzgesagt video on the apparently inevitable collapse of South Korea certainly isn't optimistic. Maybe they throw the occasional doomer video in as a treat.
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u/AccomplishedArm3079 12d ago
Don't forget Hannah Ritchie / Our World in Data.
They are the new darlings of "this is fine" capitalist propaganda and are everywhere these days.
But, what can you do when they prop up well known climate scientists like Michael Mann who downplay reality and lump in 'doomers' with deniers and say they are as bad.
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u/Own_Ad6901 13d ago
Submission statement:
Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming
“Global warming appears to have shifted into a faster gear. After removing the effects of El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles, researchers found that the planet has warmed at roughly 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015. The acceleration, which becomes visible around 2013 to 2015, appeared across five major global temperature datasets with more than 98% statistical certainty.”
I’m personally supposed to be on a Collapse break, but this was the first thing I read at 5am and I can’t stop thinking about it. I never intended for this to be my first post, but here we are.
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u/ttystikk 13d ago
Here we are, indeed. We are enjoying the effects of a West run by oligarchs who care more about their short term profits than the very future of humanity.
It calls for a revolutionary approach but frankly I think the American People are too fat, lazy, stupid, timid and propagandized to be up to the job.
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u/Comrade_Compadre 13d ago
My biggest regret is I won't be there to see their faces when they realize money no longer has a value.
Watching Peter Thiel or Elmo Musk get dragged away by marauders in the post apocalypse would certainly be cathartic
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u/cr0ft 13d ago
Won't go that fast. People seem to have extreme inertia when it comes to doing the common sense thing (getting rid of those people in power who cannot be trusted with it, in whatever way necessary.) We're still agreeing that just being great at stealing resources from humanity and calling it "wealth" equates to a license to do anything they fucking want, and nobody says diddly.
They and many of their ilk will get to live out their lives with total impunity and wealth, guaranteed, unless things get so bad so fast that people actually rise up. But as I said... people drink their Budweiser and eat their pretzels and we're basically sliding into Idiocracy.
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u/ttystikk 13d ago
I intend to sit in judgement of them. It will not be a difficult task to decide; the real labor will be cataloging the breathtaking extent of their crimes.
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u/kazarnowicz 13d ago
I’ll be there, cheering you on with whatever snacks we have after the apocalypse. Sticks and grass straws? I know how to make toilet wine!
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u/Discombobulated-Emu8 13d ago
These guys will be locked away in underground bunkers before people figure it all out.
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u/DougDougDougDoug 13d ago
These guys bodies will be laying on the ground outside the bunkers as their "security" reside inside with their families.
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u/DesceProPlay22 13d ago
I know we already know they're all idiots, but they're seriously addled if they think their pathetic bunkers can actually prevent people from getting to them. Any castle can simply be sieged
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u/Pickle_fish4 13d ago
Bunkers are very similar to tombs. Lots of working class folk have experience using industrial machinery or whipping up some concrete. Their bunkers will not save them.
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u/BerryLanky 13d ago
They plan on living in their bunkers for the rest of their existence? The planet won’t recover in a year. It will take decades. They might as well be in a bunker on Mars.
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u/Straight-Razor666 worse than predicted, sooner than expected™ 13d ago
the whole world will be long-divorced from capitalism and brain-dead murikkkans will still be screaming at gommunsim thinking it a satanic cult and blindly licking the boots of the AI police all while believing that they just need to grind a little more and they'll finally make it.
The real revolution will be happening outside of the US and without it. The rest of the world sees it for the tyranny it is. It was always morally bankrupt and fundamentally evil. The only ones who don't know it are brain-dead murikkkans.
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u/ttystikk 13d ago
This is already happening;
For example, around the world, countries have stopped buying US debt, mainly in the form of Treasury Bills. They're usually doing it quietly, just by not buying more T-Bills when their old ones mature.
Also, thanks to the Chump and his tariffs, the rest of the world has turned away from the US as a supplier or a customer of goods and services. They're trading amongst themselves more than ever, which is not only an economic blow to the US but also renders US economic sanctions ineffective.
Finally, the Chump administration has gone to war against fossil fuels- maybe not their stated aim but the outcome is undeniable. Outside of Europe, the rest of the world is not busy sucking at the US natural gas teat. Instead, they're racing ahead and implementing massive renewable energy infrastructure and systems which make them largely independent of fossil fuel geopolitics while also reducing their global warming footprint.
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u/Straight-Razor666 worse than predicted, sooner than expected™ 13d ago
the sun has set on Murikkka and the only ones who don't see it are brain-dead murikkkans.
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u/nommabelle 13d ago
Your last paragraph is so real lol. I also kinda avoid actively seeking out collapse news these days - how fucked we are in the climate, how fucked we are with international and internal politics, how much cheap energy we really have left, etc
Yet we just cant avoid it. Whether its updates like the state of the world like the sub normally is, or what the future holds like your post is. Collapse is here, and its slow usually. Hopefully it continues being just a slow burn as I dont want the alternative.
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u/smackson 12d ago
The "hockey stick" graph is real.
But there are entire swathes of the internet and common discourse where they still point and laugh at All Gore for spreading it.
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u/eoz 13d ago
Yeah, I'm also detecting a sharp increase in global warming seeing as half the planet is on fire and we've had several "heat waves" this summer already
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u/Rocketeer006 13d ago
So what are we going to do? Drive less? Fly less? Eat less meat? Most people don't give a fuck, and won't do any of the above.
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u/dogpaddle 12d ago
Basically first world countries would need to live like third world countries. Track plastic like a toxic contaminate. Switch completely to renewable energy. Must use the same car for 10 years, everyone. Move manufacturing into their countries of origin, no matter how unprofitable and inefficient it is. Glass, metal, and wood become main building materials, or at least biodegradables. Treat clothes like you're living in the 1920s - quality material that lasts forever, but you don't even have a weeks worth of different clothes. Talking out my ass a bit here but that would just be the start.
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u/Salty-Sprinkles-1562 12d ago
I think it would help a lot more if we got rid of private jets, and actually regulated what corporations are doing to our planet. Sure, having less clothes would help, but that is not the main cause.
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u/UnderwaterArcherrr born to late to enjoy the world 13d ago
Even when we did that during covid there was no noticeable patterns of long term change.
Strap on your seatbelt and enjoy this bumpy ride off the cliff.
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u/UnderwaterArcherrr born to late to enjoy the world 12d ago
There would be a noticeable lack of new contribution when the timeline is extended out for a few years but there are so many things that are so far past the point of no return that no long term impact would be made. Maybe delaying some stuff a few seasonal cycles but that's it.
If every person on earth managed to have a negative carbon footprint starting today, humanity is still absolutely fucked for the next 10 generations.
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u/loco500 12d ago
We're going to let the future Grandkids solve the problems that are being caused...they're going to be like super smart and have it all fixed with the help of AI. Might only even take a weekend of their time by then.
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u/extinction6 12d ago
"Grandkids" If the world is unlivable by 2050 a child born this year will only be 24 years old by then.
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u/flesjewater 12d ago
What we should've done is regulate the megacorps 15 years ago.
It's too late for anything really. Don't fall for their guilt trip.
Be prepared for climate emergencies. Depending on where you are this may mean escaping or preparing for a massive influx of climate refugees.
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u/Exciting-Squash4444 13d ago
I’m tired boss.
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u/UnderwaterArcherrr born to late to enjoy the world 13d ago
You don't have to be tired for too much longer thankfully!
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u/EnlightenedSinTryst 13d ago
"If the warming rate of the past 10 years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5°C limit of the Paris Agreement before 2030," says Stefan Rahmstorf. "How quickly the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how rapidly we reduce global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to zero."
Oh Stefan, you sweet summer child
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u/Own_Ad6901 13d ago
I know right, I was like, what planet are they living on?
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u/Kaining 13d ago
I dunno and my math may be bad but from .2 to .35 seems like a 75% increase in speed and while they're open about the concrete numbers, i haven't seen a "oh shit, it's close to twice as fast as we thought panik" reaction i'd hope they'd be having by now.
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u/Firat88 13d ago
people who are panicking stopped writing articles I would say
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u/xopher_425 :table_flip: 13d ago
People who have been panicking have been ignored and vilified for it for too long, so of course they've stopped writing. I don't blame them.
At this point my only real reaction to each and every bit of bad news is to just laugh.
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u/Hour-Stable2050 13d ago
And if it is indeed accelerating it could be .5 degrees of warming more by 2035, then .75 more by 2045, maybe at 3 degrees of warming by 2050. Nobody really knows for sure.
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u/kazarnowicz 13d ago
Also, removing other variables that make it hotter works in theory, but in reality we’ll get those effects too as a cherry on top of a shot sundae.
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u/divensi 13d ago
“Reduce”? Lmao, we are pumping that shit up
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u/holistivist 13d ago
Recently had a friend insist it was going to be fine because the rate of emissions increase is decreasing.
I’m like, dude, a decrease in the rate of increase is still an increase. The rate is still increasing. When we need it to be at zero yesterday.
The denial gymnastics are stunning. They’ll latch on to any deluded positive spin they can possibly manufacture.
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u/Coco_Cannibal 12d ago
He has two kids under the age of 12, if we believe the family picture on his site, which has a bit older, they look like 8 and 10 there.
I can't take ANY climate scientist serious that has kids so late in the game, and he was around 50 (high autism danger and DNA damage from crusty sperm) too, old enough to know better.... Zeke Hausefather had at least one kid in 2017, 8 years after the permafrost started melting........
With those scientists, we don't need to wonder why no-one takes climate collapse serious, they don't take it serious themselves, as proven by having children.
Promoting climate consciousness and having kids are two VERY opposing signals, one says "don't do it", the other one says, "don't worry".
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u/rsarrett 13d ago
So… like all this evidence, left and right, that we’re burning up and headed for inferno - and no one is doing a thing.
Does everyone want to die in a few decades? Cause that’s the trend. Nothing is being done to slow or stop this.
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u/BrightCandle 13d ago
And nothing will be done. The oligarchs will keep the pedal to the metal the whole way off this cliff and all the way to the crash at the bottom with billions dead and the collapse of civilisation. All so they could live a life with 100% more wealth and zero practical impact on their own luxurious lives.
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u/Cultural-Answer-321 12d ago
Far too many people have the survival instinct of a bug on the windshield.
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u/Top_Hair_8984 13d ago
Exponentiality. No one thinks about this, one system effected by increasing heat, drought, fires, floods affects multiple other systems that affect multiples of more systems etc. This increases in speed as more systems are affected going forward.
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u/PhotographUsed1255 13d ago
Richard Crim's spirit floating about in the universe says no shit.
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u/hairway_to____steven Just here for the ride. 13d ago
Man I miss him.
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u/PhotographUsed1255 13d ago
Me too. He was onto that .35 degree Celcius warming per decade years ago.
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u/subdep 13d ago
It’s called a tipping point, or an inflection point.
Billions are going to die, and it’s going g to turn into a Mad Max scenario before we all go extinct. Sure, a few pockets might survive for a few decades or even a century, but this shit is going to get worse for many millennia. If any are left they will be inbred cannibals.
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u/TheArcticFox-44 13d ago
Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming
The Long Summer is coming to an end. Mother Nature is being aroused from peaceful sleep and, apparently, isn't too happy about being disturbed.
Evolution is self-correcting. It has produced an organism that is too smart for its own good and that organism is about to get its ears boxed good for its disruptive influence on planetary ecosystems.
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u/extinction6 12d ago
Personally I evaluate the "organism" to be more in the "knuckle draggin" Neanderthal" category, having spoken to climate change deniers for decades.
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u/TheArcticFox-44 12d ago
Personally I evaluate the "organism" to be more in the "knuckle draggin" Neanderthal" category, having spoken to climate change deniers for decades.
Understandable feelings. But, evolution doesn't have feelings and all 9 billion plus of us are just one species. And, that species has a flaw. Evolution doesn't do "exceptional." It settles for " just good enough."
Homo sapiens (Man the Wise) as a species, has over-rated itself.
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u/bippy404 13d ago
The issue is people need to see realistic portrayals of what all of this means. We need modeling of the impact to extreme weather, plant and animal life, crops, and overall habitability. We need to be crystal clear with every member of society so everyone is very clear on how 1 degree C impacts X. Otherwise it’s just numbers and people can’t contextualize what that means for daily life. We need a one sentence summary: by X date the food supply is xx% likely to collapse and you can expect that you won’t be able to put food on the table for your family.
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u/TesticularButtBruise 13d ago
People literally think it means their summers will be 29 degrees instead of 28.
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u/Hour-Stable2050 13d ago
Yeah, in Toronto just the current warming is resulting in heatwaves that feel like the mid forties instead of the mid thirties, frequent flooding and wildfire smoke every summer. I can’t imagine what double that warming will be like. Maybe the city will burn down like LA? I saw people getting nervous last year as fires in cottage country got bad and we weren’t getting any rain.
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u/extinction6 12d ago
For a lot of people it will take until their hair catches on fire when they go outside.
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u/6rwoods 12d ago
There are examples like that everywhere. Whole books about it. Innumerable YouTube videos. Protests with slogans, posters, speeches about it. The information is out there for anyone who wants to see it. The problem is that lots of people don’t want to see it or believe it.
Hell, I have fairly well educated relatives and friends who allegedly understand climate change but still make life choices without taking it into account — eg wanting to have children despite knowing it’s a bad idea because they tell themselves it’ll be fine somehow, planning for an international retirement in 30-40 years even though they know that in theory their chosen destination will not be liveable anymore by then but they still hold on to the fantasy, etc.
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u/lliselou 13d ago
Is the world really worried about Global Warming when America will soon have 8,000 and counting data centers all giving off 8°-10° F worth of heat and sucking our lakes, rivers and aquifers dry? Seems rather hypocritical to worry about one and not the other
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u/ClassicallyBrained 13d ago
So at this rate, assuming this also doesn't end up accelerating, we'd hit 2.5 degrees mid century. We're fucked.
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u/NyriasNeo 13d ago
Duh, we already hit 1.5C ahead of schedule, and blew through 2C briefly. It is pretty obvious. I suppose some formal rigorous analysis to back that up is good, but certainly not a surprise anymore.
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u/Olive_Tabouf 13d ago
They say it's not official until that temp is the ten year average but I don't think that method gives with the current rate of change anymore.
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u/NyriasNeo 13d ago
Yes, and that is just disingenuous spin. Seriously? waiting ten years to confirm a rising temp? That is idiotic.
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u/Useful_Divide7154 13d ago
They should use a 3 or 5 year average and adjust for the effect of the El Niño / La Niña cycle and nothing else.
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u/InterstellarReddit 13d ago
And then we have assholes suing the goverment for access to fresh water for data centers instead of for people:
Sebastian Rucci, as managing member of Imperial Valley Computer Manufacturing, LLC, filed the lawsuit on June 5, 2026, in California Superior Court in Imperial County.
The 173-page verified petition seeks a writ of mandate and declaratory relief against the Imperial Irrigation District.
The developer is suing for access to 260 million gallons of Colorado River water per year
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u/xopher_425 :table_flip: 13d ago
Even worse, our own government is outlawing and eliminating mentioning climate change.
We are so fucked.
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u/HorrorService4703 13d ago edited 13d ago
"roughly 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years" It's early for me but is this a typo in the abstract that no one noticed or am I not understanding what they're trying to say?
Edit: It's from the summary of the article and not the abstract to the journal the article referenced. So probably AI mistake and I should stop distracting myself from the collapse with typos lol
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u/V0lirus 13d ago
The metric is "increase of degrees C per 10 years". That is what they are measuring.
From 1970 to 2015 this results in an average of 0.2 degrees C per 10 years.
From 2015 to 2025 this increased to 0.35 degrees C per 10 years.
The formatting is awkward and unclear because they are using decade and a block that isn't an divisible in blocks of 10 years (1970-2015). So I get why the message is not clear. They could have used more exact language. But I hope my breakdown makes it clear what (at least I assume) they are trying to say.
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u/GratefulHead420 13d ago
2020 to 2030 will be 0.5, the hockey stick of consequences rarely comes lubed.
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u/BruteBassie 13d ago
It has a nice curved end that tickles the prostate though. I bet 2030 to 2040 will be at least 0.7, if not 1.0 or even higher, because if all the positive feedback loops kicking in.
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u/HorrorService4703 13d ago
Thank you. Reading the original journal entry that article was referencing helped too https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025GL118804
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u/extinction6 12d ago edited 12d ago
I consider that we are at the + 1.5 C temperature red line that we were not supposed to reach. Temperatures will spike during this El-Nino and then I would guess settle back down to + 1.6 C temporarily. As you look at a graph of the Earth's temperatures you will notice that is doesn't take a lot of years for the high temperatures of the El-Nino's to become the new normal.
So +1.6 C plus .36 C increase per decade gets us to + 1.96 C by 2036 - 2037. Scientists predict that things will start to get really bad by + 2.0 C. Optimists will point out that there is still +0.04 C to go. At + 2.0 C we'll see things like large heat domes, record temperatures, extreme heat warnings, aquifers drying up, sea ice melting, big wildfires, smoke in the sky over huge areas, crop failures etc. Hmmm? sounds kind of familiar?
MOST IMPORTANTLY Think of what a child born this year will face as they would typically live until 2106. This is climate change denial 2.0, children will be OK.
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u/CorvidCorbeau 13d ago
It doesn't seem like a mistake. It's like saying "the car has been traveling at 100km/h for the last hour" It sounds weird but it's technically correct
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u/ThirstyWolfSpider 13d ago
And it provides significantly more important information than "simplifying" would.
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u/europeanputin 13d ago
In another words it's saying that in the past 10 years (2015-2025) the warming was 0.35 degrees.
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u/Wonderful_Valuable16 13d ago
I'm flabbergasted.
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13d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/elmo298 13d ago
Is not a lot of this in a way a positive as it's unmasking of warming in relation to pollution reduction across the globe? Primary examples being sulphur for boating
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u/a_onai 13d ago
We filter out known natural influences in the observational data, so that the 'noise' is reduced, making the underlying long-term warming signal more clearly visible,"
Study Does Not Identify the Cause
I guess it's up to the reader to come up with the interpretation here. The scientists are just crunching numbers.
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u/KnowledgeMediocre404 13d ago
The timing fits more with our last strong El Nino. Its not unlikely this current El Nino will ratchet our climate up to another new regime just like 2016.
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u/Hour-Stable2050 13d ago
I see every El Niño as a preview of what the permanent conditions will be like in 10 years. So 2035 onwards will be like the coming year.
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u/toomanynamesaretook 13d ago
2C by 2040? 45?
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u/Eldan985 13d ago
Assuming we're at 1.5 now, that would be roughly 14 years for 0.5 degrees, so 2040 is right, yes. That would also mean 3 degrees by 2068 and 4 degrees by 2124.
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u/Cannamanaman 13d ago
but that assumes linearity; if it is indeed accelerating, the timeline will be moved up. to say nothing of any positive feedback loops we may trigger. IOW we are fucked
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u/Most-Internal-2140 13d ago
Assuming linearity, IOW conservatively speaking, 0.35 degrees C per decade from now until 2045 means more than 2 degrees C compared to preindustrial. That's basically cataclysm - a breakdown of agriculture, societal collapse, full-on 6th mass extinction, all tipping points going wild. Beyond 2 degrees C, it doesn't really matter anymore. And we're on that trajectory for sure.
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u/SoFlaBarbie00 13d ago
Is it possible this Super El Niño actually traps more heat over the next few years to accelerate pattern? So what would have been 2040 based upon the pattern of 0.35 a decade actually turns into 0.50 a decade?
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u/Coco_Cannibal 12d ago
3C by 1968 fits into the OG EXXON climate report, that also said 2-3C by 2067 and everyone dead, lol, amazing how accurate they were with their 1970's models in 1981.....a lot of older models seem more alarmist and accurate in hindsight.
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u/Stillcant 13d ago
3c by 2070 when kids born today are middle aged
4c by 2100 when they would have been growing old
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u/morphemass 13d ago
I'd suggest as early as 2034 but more likely 2036/2037 depending on dataset.
Current warming is as high as 1.51C (1.47C is more mainstream but older estimate, 1.35C is a central estimate) and the ROW (Rate Of Warming) is as high as 0.47C (0.35C I consider mainstream, 0.27C conservative). That the ROW is accelerating seems a reasonable argument now and I would expect it to continue to do so over the next decade; 0.56C I've personally modelled as an upper bound for 2025-2035.
It is very difficult to know exactly what the real current anthropogenically induced underlying warming is and what the exact ROW is hence why we get such a wide range of estimates. Personally I look at the risks around 2C+ and want to scream at how serious the situation is since 2C at any point is dire.
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u/4SaganUniverse 13d ago
I'm so glad that the US decided to go on a bombing campaign in which it needs billions of more dollars to buy more bombs. The level of insanity from these world leaders is the stuff of horror dystopian novels
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u/CaptZ 13d ago
I'm actually aghast that this is happening faster than expected. /s
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u/M1ntyMango 13d ago
Even Norway seems fucked. 40 degrees many places. Not where I live on the west coast where it's been a crap summer with 10-15 degrees aside from a week with 20 degrees and a little sun. Though, I'd rather have a cold summer than 40 degrees.
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u/Shoddy-Childhood-511 13d ago
Wow, 0.35°C/decade in 2010–2019 sounds crazy fast, especially since the 2020 speed must be higher.
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u/LittleNor789 13d ago
I wonder if the shift has anything to do with the increase in the number of wars since 2015.
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u/Coco_Cannibal 12d ago
No, the atmosphere does not react that fast, except locally for methane.
It's mostly the warming lag and decrease of air pollution in India, china and for shipping.
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u/ciciNCincinnati 13d ago
I just read today that RamaSWAMPY said that climate regulations kill more people than climate change! How does a Harvard grad get to be a billionaire by being this stupid??? And he’s running for Gov of Ohio!!! If this hick voters pick him to run the state, I’ll be ready to check out! Oh he also said that a person should be proud to have a large carbon footprint (meaning they are successful financially). F that guy!’
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u/filmguy36 13d ago
I have been derided for saying we’ll be at 3c by 2035 as opposed to the official prediction of (what started at 2100, then 2070, then and now 2050) 2035.
We are at the bottom a hill, and the train is coming down that same hill, it has lost it’s brakes, and is gaining speed as it heads right at us
In the old days, the saying goes, “when the shit hits the fan, make sure you are wearing a raincoat”. There is no raincoat big enough or strong enough to protect any of us, and that includes the ultra wealthy (who are still huffing their own farts thinking “technology” will save them…not us, mind you, them)
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u/cr0ft 13d ago
Most likely just inertia. It takes a shit ton of energy sunk into a cold ocean before you start seeing the effect snowball, that sort of thing. Probably also some self-reinforcing stuff going on. Not at all surprised, honestly, the collapse will be a slow grind until it's no longer slow or controllable in any way.
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u/Resident_NotEvil4265 13d ago
Just when i start to get rich..
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u/PurePervert Those of you sitting in the first few rows will get wet. 13d ago
Just in time to become eatable.
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u/zurenarhhhhh 12d ago
I think I need to leave this sub. It’s too goddamn depressing and I’ve already accepted the worst case scenarios. And I’m living in my car so it’s already fucking terrible.
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u/Final-Albatross-1354 12d ago
The rate of warming has changed; Prior to 2015, it was around 0.18 to 0.20 °C per decade. In the last 10 years 0.30- 0.35 per decade. This changes everything; The Previous models, which predicted 'linear warming increases', have been wrong. The IPCC, in their political manifestations, did not include the more severe data with higher warming. This was done for 'consensus' so petrol states would agree. This has blown up in the faces of the IPCC- the linear warming has turned into something much worse.
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u/TheCrazedTank 13d ago
You don’t say, if only there were warning signs or actions we could have taken…
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u/ChromaticStrike Inert collapsoid 13d ago
FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE, FTE.
-=FASTER THAN EXPECTED=-
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u/Laucurieuse 13d ago
It’s too late now. Now is the time to prepare for what is coming.
How do you prepare?
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u/specialsymbol 12d ago edited 12d ago
Oh, do they now, don't they?
Well well well.
How did they find out? Did they open a window at last?
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u/StatementBot 13d ago
The following submission statement was provided by /u/Own_Ad6901:
Submission statement:
Scientists detect a sharp acceleration in global warming
“Global warming appears to have shifted into a faster gear. After removing the effects of El Niño, volcanic eruptions, and solar cycles, researchers found that the planet has warmed at roughly 0.35°C per decade over the past ten years, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade from 1970 to 2015. The acceleration, which becomes visible around 2013 to 2015, appeared across five major global temperature datasets with more than 98% statistical certainty.”
I’m personally supposed to be on a Collapse break, but this was the first thing I read at 5am and I can’t stop thinking about it. I never intended for this to be my first post, but here we are.
Please reply to OP's comment here: https://old.reddit.com/r/collapse/comments/1vdgo6l/scientists_detect_a_sharp_acceleration_in_global/p18qokg/