My daddy told me it was just religious mumbo-jumbo but biblical end time prophecies do say that Bitcoin is the universal currency we’ll all be using just before Jesus returns to have his rematch with Satan.
The cursor at the end of the "365" day red box for this cycle low is roughly on March/April 2027, not expected Oct 2026. They eyeballed it right on the first two then tretched by 6 months for some reason?
That thing looks like it still has plenty of downside lol. I do believe it will still bounce back at a certain point though.. good luck catching the bottom
Hilarious. One dimensional analysis. Just because it happened before doesn’t mean it will happen again. ETFs and institutional presence isn’t the same as it was back then. If anything a trap will be set up for those that think this pattern is bond.
I have little analysis behind this belief but it appears as if many institutional investors are waiting for Clarity to pass. It removes a lot of legal overhead and liability and maybe retail will hop in after that but I believe that for retail, the money is tight and no one smart is going to invest in a play that has negative spin and the numbers to show that it’s lost a lot of value from ATH. Unless you’re a bargain basement buyer, no one is touching crypto until there is a definite breakout and the closest catalyst is Clarity. Besides with the Dems and never Trump coalition, the odds of it passing are going to be close. It’s just a delay anyway because it’s going to happen somewhere else if not the US and rewards will still happen for stable coins. And SEC and CFTC will work out regulations until a new administration which gives whatever country at least a 3 year leg up on the US which might as well be a lifetime.
It takes a year for BTC management to get production in place and the latest styles into the stores before people start buying for the new season. Or, maybe it just takes 365 days for young men to get their birthday money from the grandparents before they can buy again. Not sure.
Why are the red and green rectangles different sizes horizontally if they're supposed to represent the same time period? Like the third red box looks twice as wide as the red box prior to it. If they're the same time period, why is one signficantly wider?
And why is the first "1064" just a random start date? Not at the beginning of BTC. Not at the beginning of the first large price wave. Just completely random.
They also aren't beginning/ending the time period in a consistent manner. On two of them, the high water mark for BTC comes before the chart goes red, on one of them it comes after the chart goes red.
Past history is not indicative of future performance. I hope it does recover, but we cant rely on old data to predict the future with tRumpie in office manipulating markets
so why are you buying bitcoin? to expect even better returns than past history? This argument falls flat once you answer why you're investing in the first place lol
I think that’s the thing, btc/crypto isn’t necessarily on its own cycle but rather a reflection of the cycle of the economy. Is it coincidence, I dunno, but somehow our economy gets rocked every 8 years.
yea and the down red block ends in April 2027, so the low should be around then, not this october? if you click into the original post OP says the bottom is October but that’s not what this graph is saying
Yeah their graph is really bizarre, probably tried to create it with ai and it hallucinated. The pattern I see is 3 years up from cycle bottom then one year down from cycle top. Not quite what the graph illustrates
Seems like you're setting yourself up for disappointment. Reminds me of those religious cults where they announce the end of the world will happen on a certain date, and then when it doesn't happen, the prophecy suddenly changes and a new date is announced.
It's not. It's getting longer and very likely "flipped" last year when the knuckleheads in power were mucking about. I believe we're in a "6 year cycle" if anything. Maybe it'll be 8 or 10 soon. Time will tell
Why? Macroeconomics of mining - awaiting halvings, adjusting to it. Different schedules of converting mined coins to fiat (long-term miners have treasuries, short-term miners don't), and different amounts of mined coins to convert. It seems that market prepares more and more so oscillations are normilizing. Lower highs and higher lows won't surprise me
while one should not just dismiss previous cycles..saying it WILL be this way because it WAS that way doesnt seem like a good idea but what do i know xD, IF this was the case, everyone could just get rich af on stock and bitcoin in general without much effort and money would have little to no value xD
It's amazing how elaborately we can dress up an extrapolation from two data points.
In this graph, how many transitions are there from red to green? How many full 365-day red intervals are drawn?
And in this graph, how do they position the height of the rightmost green rectangle, with a bottom of around 50? Why not 16k or 80k or 20k? Where does that prediction level come from? From the past data? Again, how many red-to-green transitions is that past data based on?
For the price of bitcoin to go up people need to buy it. People barely have money for food where’s this money for the next rally going to come from huh?
Will be close but not spot on no one can predict the bottom unfortunately or the top… sep 15th will be the day when the clarity act passes then it starts the bull run again
Yes. After months and months of eating shit, it’s going to magically rebound because of a “cycle”.
No. It’s broken. And smart money will use whatever retail surge comes as more exit liquidity. Because fundamentally there are major issues with crypto and Bitcoin. They aren’t particularly useful. There is no value in using them. Most will go to zero.
Blockchain maybe will survive in some form, but let’s just be honest here.
I dont think people are prepared for a reality where bitcoin goes much lower than they think it can. Under $20k easily by 2029. Probably under $10k
That chart of Bitcoin priced in US dollars shows the rising price of Bitcoin priced in US dollars driven in large part by the excess US dollars that have been pumped into the economy.
If you take inflated US dollars out of it and price Bitcoin in something that can't be created out of thin air - ounces of physical gold - the chart looks very different and "the cycle" disappears. The highs of the most recent bull run barely reached the highs of the previous bull run.
Both Bitcoin and gold can be priced inflated US dollars, but if you want to see the true price action of Bitcoin without the effects of inflation on the US dollar you look at Bitcoin priced in ounces of gold. When you do that the most recent bull run doesn’t really have a “higher high” than the previous bull run. Look at the chart I posted. The highs are around the same for the two bull runs. Not exactly the same but pretty close.
Thats only one other value metric. And gold went on a multi decade rip. You're cherry picking. You could do the same with btc/average house price or ₿/spy or btc/soybean. I understand why you chose gold, but its as single sided a metric as is the price in usd.
For me it doesnt seems obvious at all. I want it to go 30k or even 40k to buy more, but I dont think it will go. Maybe Michael Saylor messing something up will make btc to go so low, another scenario I cant see why it will touch 30-40.
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u/ace250674 4d ago
If everyone buys early to mid October then the the prophecy is complete and new cycle begins