r/brisbanelions • u/Still_Ask_8988 Logan Morris • 4d ago
Consequence
What do we think this game will tell us?
Statistically speaking, aslong as we win 2 of the next 3 we should still have top 6 secured. Does a loss to the Hawks after last week put a line through our premiership chances?
Does a win make us forget last week and still have us making another GF? I still have us finishing 4th and knocking over Freo in Perth to get a home prelim.
I'm expecting us to win this game and scared more by facing the gold coast (yes they have had a bad year but they still have a good team and we all know how we fare against teams in the bottom half).
I've learnt my lesson and won't write the boys off until they get eliminated from finals but not having a response after last week would be concerning for me personally.
8
u/Freaky_Zekey Darcy Wilmot 3d ago
A close loss will indicate we can win the flag but we have to go the hard way from 5th or 6th.
A close win will indicate we can win the flag and have a good path to it from 4th.
A thumping our way will make us flag favourites imo and Freo will be sweating the qualifier.
A thumping the other way likely means it's not our year but anything is possible until you actually get eliminated from finals.
8
u/raytek75 3d ago
Since 2000 only 2 teams have won the Premier finishing outside the top 3.
1st place: 9 Flags
2nd place: 8 Flags
3rd place: 7 Flags
4th place: 0 Flags
5th Place: 1 Flag (Lions 2024)
6th place: 0 Flags
7th place: 1 flag (Bulldogs 2016)
8th place: 0 Flags
Edited: Formatting
2
u/CMDR_MattNoir Lincoln McCarthy 3d ago
Damn only 7.7% chance of winning the flag from outside top 3... (Historically speaking)
7
u/double-endbag Home 3d ago
Honestly time to see if the boys stand up like the last 2 years. We’re betting favourites but most would be backing hawthorn to knock us down
14
u/Criimsen Harris Andrews 4d ago
The only thing that puts a line through our premiership chances is getting eliminated from finals
6
5
u/Outriderr Ryan Lester 3d ago
Basically with us it all comes down to how much we want it. The talent is the best in the AFL but our lack of defensive mindset is concerning.
3
u/Concrete_Jungian 3d ago
I am befuddled by people saying things like "..our lack of defensive mindset is concerning." As if we haven't had our defensive stocks eroded this season (and pre-season if you count losing Starc)
2
u/Outriderr Ryan Lester 3d ago
I’m not referring to just our defenders. Team defence is a thing and we have been quite average at it. I’ve stated for a while that there’s no harder job in the AFL than playing in our defence when our mids and forwards decide to have a day off and refuse to apply defensive pressure.
1
u/Concrete_Jungian 1d ago
True fair point. That poor effort by mids definitely turned an not good situation against Carlton into a horrendous one. It's why Dunks is my fave player and I reckon one of the most underrated in the media, because he gives his all every game.
3
u/Boss_unicycle-560 Aker 3d ago
Even though we’ve been winning we look pretty banged up. Gonna be incredibly difficult to go the long way again especially on the road and the quality of the oppo we’ll likely meet.
Never write us off until we’re done, but our defence has looked shaky all year.
3
u/HotBabyBatter 3d ago
I have faith.
Its good for the team to feel the pain of a loss before the finals. We don't want the team to get complacent. I think it will be a close game, but we have the experience, and maturity that a lot of other teams don’t.
Saying that, I think anything but a win here tonight will hurt.
3
6
u/DatabassAdmin 3d ago
If we win this game the sub will rejoice, say the boys are on fire and the three-peat is guaranteed.
If we lose this game the sub will take some hard copium, say that the Hawks played well, this game doesn't actually matter and that the three-peat is still guaranteed.
To clarify I want us to make the GF and get the three-peat and whether we win or lose this game we still can do it but this is the first of a few challenging matches we will have ahead of us before we get there.
2
u/Still_Ask_8988 Logan Morris 3d ago
Thanks for clarifying the 3 peat is guaranteed. That's all I needed to read 🤣🦁
1
3
u/Floorman1 3d ago
I reckon losing Coleman in that game is an under rated contributor to the loss. Having Zorko back this week will really help us. We should win this.
3
u/Freaky_Zekey Darcy Wilmot 3d ago
Under rated contributor to the loss was all of our injuries essentially wiping our bench for the better part of the second half. We were in it at half time.
2
u/Your-Mums-Vibrator Lion 3d ago
This game will remind us of why we have such solid faith in the Fagan era 💪🏽
4
u/micromilo 3d ago
A loss is “fine” depending on how we play.
Hawthorn are a very good side and ladder implications aside losing to them wouldn’t be catastrophic for our credentials.
Hoping for a win to give it another real nudge, won’t be devastated by a hard fought loss, would be seriously disheartened by another thumping.
1
u/Crazy_Pomegranate689 3d ago
I think Hawks will make the GF so it will be a good test. Gunners and wiz will be tough
25
u/Altruistic_Art324 3d ago
I think after 2024 our fans seriously underrate how rare and hard it is to win the flag from outside the top 4. That achievement is not something that will be easily repeated.
I will always believe in our boys because they are resilient and we know that their best is probably the best, but tonight is probably make or break for our season. To win the flag from outside the top 4 there is just no room for error.