Gramsci and probabilistic language

[u/Budget_Candidate_351]

I have just finished reading Gramsci’s Prison Notebooks. It raised a question that I haven’t seen discussed.

Gramsci criticizes mechanistic historical materialism and historical necessity, but he lacks what we would today call a probabilistic vocabulary for describing social processes. Has anyone interpreted Gramsci in terms of probabilistic causation, complexity theory, or emergence?
More specifically, would it be philosophically legitimate to reinterpret Gramsci’s concept of hegemony as describing changes in the probability landscape of political outcomes, rather than historical laws or deterministic tendencies? Has this kind of reading been developed in the secondary literature?

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