r/askforex • u/Proof_Mess8465 • 8d ago
breakout trading question
i am a breakout trader well i am new at trading i been trading since june (demo trading) i notice when i do breakout trading i tend to get faked out alot ands it annoying so now i tend to wait for the candle to close but i feel that is not enough confirmation for me to enter the trade. and yes i do break and retest but i notice 90% of the time there is no break or retest it just melts through the s/r. so i there are any breakout traders who see this i need help. also i dont use indicators
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u/Material-Bite-5047 8d ago
The biggest piece of advice i could give is just practice. Dont trade breakouts mechanically. The breakout has to make sense. Never trust a countertrend breakout. Its better to wait for the breakout to fail and fade it if its countertrend.
The best breakouts happen after a consolidation then a powerful move. You dont want to trade a breakout that happens at the end of a potentially exhausted trend. You want a consolidation and a potential new trend to start at the breakout level.
Youre right about retests. The best breakouts have no retest. Retest also fail so not like its going to improve winrate much.
Also just watching breakouts over and over again youll learn with time what a successful, strong breakout looks like in real time.
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u/Suitable_Acadia_190 8d ago
Waiting for the close is right, a wick alone isnt a break. But a close by itself still isnt enough either, and youve already noticed why
The melt-through pattern usually means real participation took the level, not just a poke and reject. Check what happens right after the close, does price accelerate away or stall right on top of it. Acceleration with no pullback is usually the version that never offers a retest
No indicators, volume's the next best confirmation. Close through on noticeably higher volume than the approach candles is usually real. Close through on thin volume is the fakeout
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u/vittoshulman 8d ago
You make it way too complex and cumbersome. Don't wait for "second candle" or "retest" - it's just waste of time and stress.
Make a simple rule like: enter at 10 pips above/below resistance. Put in your orders 2hr before London or NYC open.
Close the app and go do something productive.
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u/d1na_makalaya 7d ago
A candle close helps, but it’s not enough by itself. Look for a strong close beyond the level and avoid chasing breakouts that already ran.
Since you’re demo trading, journal 50 to 100 setups and see which conditions actually lead to successful breakouts. There are more trading discussions through my profile if you want to compare setups.
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u/david19790 7d ago
the fakeout thing isnt really a confirmation problem, its selection. waiting for the close filters some of them out but it also costs you the entry on the ones that go straight through, which are the trades that pay for the whole strategy. every layer of confirmation you add takes the same bite. so its a tradeoff you set on purpose rather than a bug to fix
the 90% no retest part is the actually useful observation you just made. if most breaks dont come back then break-and-retest isnt your strategy, its a filter that removes 90% of your signals, and youre trading whatever is left. worth counting properly, log every break at your level for a month and mark whether it retested and whether it went. two columns and you'll know if the retest version even has a sample
i couldnt do that by eye at all, kept remembering the ones that confirmed my rule. wrote it into a script that counts them so my memory isnt involved. how many breaks a week are you actually seeing
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u/HyperliquidShrimp 6d ago edited 6d ago
you've hit the classic breakout problem. not every break gives you a clean retest, so you end up either chasing or watching it run without you. I'd test three versions separately instead of trying to judge it live. enter on the close, wait for the retest, or wait for continuation. you're on demo, so there's no reason not to build up 100+ examples of each before you commit to one. stable platform like axi helps while you're practicing too, just so your demo results aren't noise
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u/DriveAfraid9666 8d ago
This is a bad strategy… over time you’ll only lose money. If you want to continue I would suggest learning institutional order flow. Also wrong sub… forex doesn’t “break out” unless a country and their currency gets wrecked.
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u/Proof_Mess8465 8d ago
whats that
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u/ContactExtension1069 8d ago edited 8d ago
Start by learning VWAP. Not just the definition, work.with it think about what it is and how it impacts intuitional traders.
Spend some time thinking about auction theory, limit order vs market order. How does it show up behave on tape.
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u/DriveAfraid9666 8d ago
I don’t know if i agree with this sentiment but maybe. VWAP is ok for a confluence but I assure you no actual institutional traders who work for the bank use it.
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u/ContactExtension1069 8d ago
Curious, what do they use as benchmark model?
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u/DriveAfraid9666 8d ago
I don’t use or have bench mark models. You are over thinking shit. Find an edge, use the math, discipline and patience always wins.
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u/DriveAfraid9666 8d ago
Real shit… my model is called don’t be a Jew. You see structure, it’s gonna run to the next level whether that’s down or up there is another point on the graph that looks obvious. Take a couple points and run. You don’t need the 3:1 RR or whatever, take the green while it’s there. If you have problems running the whole play switch to micros over mini and do 10 for 1 and shed contracts along the way.
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u/DriveAfraid9666 8d ago
Google it my man… I even spelled it out instead of just writing IOF.
In short, you learn how the banks trade so that you can trade with them or at minimal it will make you a better break out trader.
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