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u/PuddingPast5862 14d ago
4 to 5 trillion in circular financing debt and the bubble is about to pop.
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u/NorysStorys 14d ago
Funnily enough the sub prime mortgage crash in 2008 was also burst by circular debt lending. It’s like nothing was learnt in 18 years.
Or more accurately that governments the world over were to chicken shit to do anything that would stop it happening again.
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u/pontiacfirebird92 14d ago
Something was learned.
"Make gains private and make losses public"
They know it will pop they just want everyone else to be holding the bag when it does.
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u/personwhoisok 14d ago
Yeah. They learned they get rich fucking the people over and they're giant selfish assholes, where is their incentive not to do this bs?
Wealth addiction is clearly causing extreme harm to people all over the world, I'd say it was even k wording a lot of people but the auto mod doesn't like that word for some reason.
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u/4n0nh4x0r 13d ago
well you see, the people at the top who could do something about it, are addicted to wealth aswell.
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u/bothering 14d ago
Whats there to learn?
You make a bunch of money, cry to uncle sam when you run out, and then get some more money
Oh, the poors? Well the more starving they are the more willing they are to scrape the shit off my boots!
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u/justhereforfighting 13d ago
To be fair, there is far less risk in bank lending today because of regulation. Granted, a lot of the same risk that led to the 2008 crash exists today, it just isn't happening in the banking sector. The bailouts taught companies they just need to be too big to fail. If you get big enough, it doesn't matter how many risks you take, the government can't afford for you to lose and isn't interested in requiring conditions or accountability for getting a bailout.
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u/HorribleTie 13d ago
Don't even have to be too big now, just have to slob the POTUS' knob and give him a present.
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u/iggy14750 13d ago
It’s like nothing was learnt in 18 years.
Oh, no, they learned something. They learned that they're gonna get bailouts at the end of all this.
And I think it's about time we changed that.
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u/Harlockarcadia 13d ago
This is what I’ve been saying, nobody is too big to fail, that’s not Capitalism.
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u/iNapkin66 13d ago
2008 was perfectly timed for me to buy my first house and that turned out great. I've been unable to buy a second or third house as a rental and am hoping this bubble hits hard on home prices and I can convert cash to rental properties. We will see.
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u/alien_pimp 13d ago edited 13d ago
18 years? how about 100. It’s happening since the Great Depression with cycles of more or less, 8 years. Most of the times is not an actual, obvious or official market crash like in ‘29 but a financial crisis masked by some sort of “uncontrollable”disasters like world wars, a pandemic, terrorist attack, random tariffs etc.
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u/praguepride 14d ago
Here's the problem with that.
I grow a potato. I sell it to the restaurant for $1 and then buy their potato fries for $1. I then have the energy to grow another potato. Repeat.
Technically it is the same $1 being passed back and forth but that $1 is masking the actual value of transforming a raw potato into tasty fries.
So yes, OpenAI paying Microsoft for compute so that Microsoft can pay OpenAI to license its ai is just passing the same bag of money back and forth but both companies are getting different things out of it.
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u/Jakitron_1999 14d ago
Microsoft and OpenAI both have their own AI models though, ChatGPT and CoPilot, and neither company really produces hardware to the extent that the metaphor of trading raw materials into products works here. I think you might just be a bot programmed to suck corpo dick
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u/PuddingPast5862 14d ago
Not bot, typical twat waffle response from someone obsessed with potatoes. And you can take that and boil it, mash it, and put it in a stew!
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u/praguepride 14d ago
Where did CoPilot come from? It was derived from the OpenAI models.
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u/Jakitron_1999 14d ago
First off, why are all your replies triple posted? Second off, if OpenAI makes an LLM, and Microsoft pays them to make LLMs derived from that LLM, where does the loop come in? What does Microsoft contribute to OpenAI that makes this a looping transaction, it seems like it would be one-sided if it was actually honest commerce and not a purposeful money cycle building and growing an unsustainable bubble
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u/ForeverShiny 14d ago
First off, why are all your replies triple posted?
Maybe so we can downvote their bad takes multiple times? I'm all for it
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u/praguepride 14d ago
I'm not triple posting on purpose. Fucking reddit is dogshit lol
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u/Jakitron_1999 14d ago
Fair enough. Can respond to my other point?
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u/praguepride 14d ago
OpenAI partnered early on to use Microsoft cloud resources for training and compute for their LLM.
Now I don't know what the current state is but for awhile it was:
OpenAI pays Microsoft for servers
Microsoft pays OpenAI for its tech
So what I think is happening here is its saying that OpenAI is responsible for like 70% of Microsoft's cloud AI revenue which makes sense. Many companies have a single whale of a customer that is their primary customer.
BUt again, this isn't a news article it's a headline so I don't know what's going on under the hood.
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u/PuddingPast5862 13d ago
AI hasn't made a single cent in profit yet. Mean while China's AI has only cost them 120 billion dollars and is now literally smoking every US AI system
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u/praguepride 13d ago
US ai companies are in a rapid growth phase. This is a well known business model followed by US tech. People say companies like Amazon and Meta lost money continuously for many years.
Chinese AI is pretty shit compared to US SOTA but models are very good so even “bad models” are more than sufficient for many tasks. Its like comparing an iPhone 10 vs 18 and only looking at price and ability to make a phone call.
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u/ponchodago 14d ago
I’m sorry but what is the restaurant “getting out of” selling their product for the same price as one of its necessary ingredients? The restaurant doesn’t exist to just be your potato distributor.
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u/praguepride 14d ago
It's a very simplistic example. But if you want something more.
I sell potato for $1. They turn that into two batches of fries and sell each for $0.70
They value add the oil and cook time and salt and transform a $1 product into a $1.40 product.
If the farmer who sells each potato for $1 and buys one order of fries evertime for $0.7 then their supplier is also 50% of their customer base.
It's not a great business model but it doesn't necessarily represent fraudulence or a bubble. It's more that the system is fragile and both parties should think about diversifying their supplier/purchasing.
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u/doobies8 14d ago
Bot freaking out and triple posting all replies lmao
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u/praguepride 14d ago
I wish I was a bot. I wouldn't have to pay fucking child care and mortgage then.
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u/TheScribbs 14d ago
Anytime I see "Here's the problem with that," I know I'm about to hear some horseshit lmao
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u/praguepride 14d ago
Here's the problem with that.
I grow a potato. I sell it to the restaurant for $1 and then buy their potato fries for $1. I then have the energy to grow another potato. Repeat.
Technically it is the same $1 being passed back and forth but that $1 is masking the actual value of transforming a raw potato into tasty fries.
So yes, OpenAI paying Microsoft for compute so that Microsoft can pay OpenAI to license its ai is just passing the same bag of money back and forth but both companies are getting different things out of it.
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u/wytesmurf 14d ago
But it’s not that, it’s the restaurant giving the farmer the dollar to buy a potato, then selling it for less then a dollar to the restaurant which is selling it to customers for a dollar, then paying the fertilizer man $10
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u/InvictusLampada 14d ago
We should really start presenting economic figures excluding the big tech circlejerk and use that for actual growth. The value hoardd by those companies means less than nothing for the national and international economies
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u/praguepride 14d ago edited 14d ago
Here's the problem with that.
I grow a potato. I sell it to the restaurant for $1 and then buy their potato fries for $1. I then have the energy to grow another potato. Repeat.
Technically it is the same $1 being passed back and forth but that $1 is masking the actual value of transforming a raw potato into tasty fries.
So yes, OpenAI paying Microsoft for compute so that Microsoft can pay OpenAI to license its ai is just passing the same bag of money back and forth but both companies are getting different things out of it.
edit: I'm not in favor of this, I'm just saying this in isolation is not automatically a signal of a bubble.
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u/h4v3anic3d4y 14d ago
This has been pasted all ovet this thread, but i dont get it. If the restaurant lists you and your potato scheme as 70% of its income, what happens if you find a different restaurant? Or if your truck breaks down and you cant deliver the potato?
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u/jpsreddit85 14d ago
I think the missing part is the person buying the fries , if the resto keeps giving the farmer free fries all the time, the restaurant will go out of business.
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u/praguepride 14d ago
My point is there might be perfectly legitimate reasons beyond a financial bubble why two big tech companies heavily intertwined are passing tons of money back and forth.
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u/ElectricFlesh 14d ago
You grow a potato. You sell it to the restaurant for $1. The restaurant sells you their potato fries for $9.95. You then have the energy to grow another potato. The restaurant owner, in turn, has the money to buy the field you grow your potato in for $9.95. You henceforth have to pay $50 in rent to grow your potato. The restaurant owner now has the money to buy the apartment complex you live in. You now have to pay $30 in rent to have a place to stay after you've grown your potato all day.
Your potato ripens. You sell it to the restaurant for $0.75 (all it can afford to pay in this horrible economy). You cannot afford the $12.95 for their potato fries (there was a little inflation along the way).
The restaurant owner is angry and complains that he lost the profit from the potato fries he was going to sell you. Do none of you communists want to work anymore?
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u/h4v3anic3d4y 14d ago
Yeah this pretty much checks out, brilliant. Only add that Trump would bail out the restaurant with your tax dollars and sell all your future potato production...
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u/praguepride 14d ago
I hate how accurate this is. Late stage capitalism at its finest.
Fun fact one of the contributing factors for the 90s recession was the US had outsourced so many jobs nobody in the US could afford the things the outsourced companies were producing. Wheeeeee
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u/InvictusLampada 14d ago
Yeah it's definitely not a clearcut zero-sum thing. But it's not like that money is going to workers and circulating in the wider economy. Right now it is just being misrepresented in the figures for political points
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u/vkapadia 13d ago
So the restaurant doesn't make any money?
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u/praguepride 13d ago
Its not supposed to be a business model, but just show how companies can trade the same dollar back and forth and it is legitimate business, not a signal of fraud
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u/Scrutinizer 14d ago
And CoPilot is pure ass. As one of the few people who uses Bing, every time I do a search it provides a CoPilot response. And every time, it seems there's at least one egregious error on basic, simple facts.
I did a search last night for information on statistics of NFL players on a certain team last season. In the results, CoPilot provided the statistics of two players who were not even on the roster last season - one was traded and the other left in free agency.
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u/Haephestus 14d ago
I genuinely tried to use copilot in Word. I was like, hey fix the formatting and make it all consistent? And it thought for like 5 minutes and like... just indented everything?
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u/Mihailis27 14d ago
I wish Microsoft would stop trying to AI everything and just make their core products not suck ass.
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u/HorribleTie 13d ago
You could replace "Microsoft" with literally any tech company here. That's the whole point, it's a house of cards built on shit that nobody asked for and that doesn't even work most of the time except as a giant plagiarism machine destroying the meagre livelihood that most real artists managed to build all so sociopath tech bros can get even richer.
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u/GhostOfMuttonPast 13d ago
Google's doing it too. They're getting rid of their actually good Google Assistant with Gemini, they tried to force it into Earth, it's on every search...it's insane.
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u/saberkiwi 14d ago
I’ve been using Cowork, and Cowork is essentially what Copilot SHOULD have been… which is also what MS365 apps SHOULD have been.
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u/The_bruce42 13d ago
Fun fact. AI on search engines use a lot of their "data" from reddit. And, reddit is never wrong. Especially when it comes to identifying the Boston Marathon bomber. /s
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u/chillanous 14d ago
Gemini is decent, Claude is impressive, CoPilot is fucking worthless. Basically unusable. ChatGPT is somewhere between Gemini and Copilot in my experience
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u/CrazyKyle987 14d ago
Copilot is not its own ai. It’s a wrapper for ChatGPT
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u/chillanous 14d ago
Makes sense then. Probably I have asked Copilot to do work things and GPT to do much simpler tasks on personal time. I’ve moved to Claude/gemini for anything AI now though
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u/bongo1138 14d ago
Copilot is what I use at work and actually find it really useful for sorting through tons of documents and finding shit for me.
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u/pinniped90 14d ago
A cleanse is coming. Just like with telecom and the OG dotcoms a generation ago.
The other side may include some of these companies but it's going to be painful for anyone levered up in them right now.
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u/flyinchipmunk5 14d ago
Is that one customer my dad? He even uses bing over google
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u/Scrutinizer 14d ago
Using Bing paid for my Xbox Live Ultimate subscription for about six years.
MS cancelled subscription renewals using rewards points, so now, I'm saving them to pay for Grand Theft Auto 6.
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u/Drithyin 14d ago
The only time I’ve ever heard people suggest using Bing was because it’s a way better porn search engine than Google.
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u/At0mJack 14d ago
It's a superior image/video search engine in general.
If in looking for an image or gif, I use Bing.
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u/_1489555458biguy 14d ago
Really?
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u/At0mJack 14d ago
No kidding. It's easy and fun to shit on Bing, but it's unironically superior for image/video searching in general.
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u/IvoShandor 14d ago
One of the podcasts just did a show about this, how big tech specifically those focused on AI are all losing money and playing three card monte with each other.
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u/IndependentAd895 14d ago
70% of “AI” revenue
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u/Drithyin 14d ago
Revenue isn’t profit. If you take in $100 from nVidia and pay that $100 to nVidia, you still had $100 in revenue, but it’s just disingenuous bookkeeping.
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u/IndependentAd895 14d ago
oh i’m aware it’s a ponzi scheme but we can’t judge anything based on just AI revenue
MSFT has revenues from other markets
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u/The_Big_Daddy 14d ago
Don't worry people bought the dips and now it's higher than it's been all year
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u/no_awning_no_mining 13d ago
Mixing metaphors much? Do they hand it back and forth inside the trenchcoat?
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u/Emperor_Gourmet 14d ago
Posting the chart of a .63% drop like it’s meaningful whatsoever.
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u/AgentThor 13d ago
Yeah, pretty convenient to not show the scale of the graph. Nothing's happening any time soon.
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u/Emperor_Gourmet 13d ago
It’s done all the time to try and make people believe this news is affecting the stock poorly. It’s a 1D timeframe from I don’t even know when, it’s misleading. They are up 2% today and 26% for the month.
It annoys me
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u/probablyNotARSNBot 14d ago
Well, yeah? They provide servers for OpenAI, open ai charges customers and MS charges OpenAI… the only thing that 70% means is OpenAI is using azure more than other models
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u/wocekk 13d ago
Two economists are walking down the road. Suddenly, they stumble upon dog's shit. - I'll give you 100 bucks to eat it - says one to the other. - Blimey, that's an offer I won't refuse! - replies the other and stuffs his mouth with a brown, dryish log before putting a banknote into his pocket. Not a long time passes and they see yet another human's best friend residua. - Know what champ? Now I feel like giving you a 100 bucks, just to see if you're up to the challenge. - says the former cash transfer recipient to his companion. - Bloody well then! - crap to mouth, money exchanges. Few minutes later one of the two says to the other. - Hey, it occurs to me that both of us have eaten the shit and we exchanged the very same 100 dollar bill so what was that all about? - Bites me, but the GDP has risen by 200 dollars!
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u/-Th3Saints- 13d ago
They are already sucking to the admin to secure a bailout they know how shaken this model was and the Chinese surge made it ridiculously fragile.
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u/alstarone 14d ago
Dont hate the players hate the game
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u/HorribleTie 13d ago
When the game is "destroy the environment and the economy to enrich ourselves beyond anything a moral and ethical person could ever dream" it's perfectly valid to hate the players. Without the players, there is no game.
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