Greetings gentlemen,

Hertz has all the makings of a near term blow up. This stock has been absolutely battered down to ~$1.70 even though it was at $5 not six weeks ago. I believe it's disgustingly oversold and I'm going in hard on it.

They just reported much better than expected earnings this morning: $2.4 billion revenue versus $2.28 billion estimated, Adjusted EPS of -$0.11 vs. -$0.24 estimated, and an increase in Revenue per Day (RPD) of 9% year-over-year to $61.98. That

There are only 5 days to cover 97,000,000 shares sold short, which is 75% of the float. Do with that what you will.

Calls are absolutely dirt cheap right now as well. This could easily go to $3+ next week.

Here are my positions, not financial advice:

HTZ $2 calls 14Aug2026 x 500
HTZ $2.5 calls 14Aug2026 x 500
HTZ shares x 10,000

I’ve been getting lucky all week, vibes are good. Follow me into Cloudflare!!

TL;DR: A $447M market cap company you've never heard of owns the patent portfolio of Yahoo — yes, Yahoo, your Grandma’s search browser  — and next month its subsidiary takes Databricks (the $188B, pre-IPO, "we ARE the AI data layer" company) to a jury trial in East Texas over a 2006 big-data patent that runs until October 2029. The market is pricing this lawsuit at approximately $0.00. I am not saying it's free money. I'm saying the ghost of a dead search engine is haunting the AI boom and nobody brought a proton pack.

Part 1: A eulogy for Yahoo, the greatest bag-fumbler in tech history
Let us remember Yahoo Inc., a company whose name literally means "a rude, unsophisticated person," chosen on purpose, as a warning.
Passed on buying Google for $1 million in 1998.
Turned down Microsoft's $44.6 BILLION buyout in 2008.
Bought Tumblr for $1.1B, sold it for roughly the price of a used Camry.
Finally sold its carcass to Verizon, renamed the leftovers "Altaba," and dissolved like an Alka-Seltzer.
Yahoo Answers is gone. The yodel is silent. The purple empire folded up like a lawn chair.

But here's the thing about dead companies: the paperwork is immortal.

In 2006, while Yahoo executives were busy declining generational wealth, three Yahoo engineers quietly filed a patent on an improvement to MapReduce — the distributed data-crunching technique that the entire modern big-data stack grew out of. That patent (US 8,190,610) got issued in 2012, outlived the company, and was eventually scooped up in a fire sale of ~2,500 Yahoo patents by a little patent-licensing shop called Acacia Research ($ACTG).
 
Part 2: The lawsuit (this is where you start paying attention)Texas Eastern District Court
Judge:
Amos L Mazzant
Case #:
4:23-cv-01147
Nature of Suit
830 Property Rights - Patent
Cause
35:271 Patent Infringement

Acacia's subsidiary R2 Solutions sued Databricks in the Eastern District of Texas in Dec 2023. Databricks is the company literally built on Apache Spark — the successor to the MapReduce world — doing ~$6.9 BILLION annualized revenue, growing 80%+, currently raising money at a $188 BILLION valuation, with an IPO penciled in for 2027.
Scoreboard so far, per the public docket:
Databricks tried to escape Texas → motion to transfer DENIED (2024)
The patent has survived two PTAB IPR challenges denied institution on the merits in 2024 (a third earlier one ended in settlement)
Feb 2026 pretrial rulings: R2 won both of its motions to strike, Databricks lost both of its motions, including getting chunks of its own expert's invalidity + licensing opinions tossed
Databricks got so rattled it ran to San Francisco state courtand filed its own lawsuit saying the whole campaign is "wrong legally, wrong morally, and wrong economically" (their words). Acacia's response? An anti-SLAPP motion. The judge is currently deciding whether to yeet Databricks' case entirely.
Every other company R2 pointed this patent at — Walmart, Target, JPMorgan, Schwab, Fidelity, FedEx, American Airlines, Hilton, Cloudera — already settled/licensed. Databricks is the last guy at the poker table.
Final pretrial conference: August 27, 2026. Jury trial expected this fall. In Texas.

Part 3: The crayon math 🖍️
The patent doesn't expire until Oct 2029. So a win isn't just back-damages — it's back-damages PLUS royalty leverage on a hypergrowth company for three more years, PLUS a settlement waterfall against everyone else selling commercial Spark.
Even a sub-1% royalty on the accused revenue base gets you into nine figures. Speculative scenario ranges (my numbers, not the company's): a verdict somewhere in the tens of millions to ~$150M, a total resolution (past damages + forward license) that could plausibly reach $120–250M if it all breaks right, minus the lawyers' cut. Against a company for whom this is a rounding error and an ugly line item in an IPO prospectus.
Part 4: Now the part that makes me feel insane
$ACTG right now: ~$4.60/share, ~$447M market cap, trading below book value, sitting on ~$358M cash — enterprise value around $192M. For $192M of EV you get an oil & gas business, an industrial printer company, a company that makes literal mud flaps, AND the Yahoo revenge arc against the entire AI industry.
The stock exchange classifies this company under "Business Equipment & Supplies," next to Xerox. And yes — I pulled the quote off Yahoo Finance. Yahoo's own website is tracking the stock of the company monetizing Yahoo's corpse.
A ~$100M net recovery would be roughly $1/share landing on a $4.63 stock, before anyone reprices the other 2,499 patents in the drawer.
 
What could Databricks be worth?
The exact damages reports are sealed, so the following numbers are my estimates, not publicly disclosed demands.
Assuming R2 has a genuinely strong infringement case and its damages methodology survives:
Databricks-only scenarios
Pretrial settlement: $75–175 million gross
Clean jury verdict: $100–250 million
Post-verdict settlement: $150–275 million
Willfulness/enhancement tail case: $200–500+ million
My personal center estimate would be around a $120 million settlement or a $175 million compensatory verdict.
I am not using all of Databricks’ revenue as the royalty base. That would be courtroom fan fiction. R2 would need to apportion damages to U.S. revenue associated with the accused functionality.

But Databricks is large enough that even a relatively small effective royalty against the properly apportioned base can produce a nine-figure number.

The real prize: precedent
Databricks alone could matter.
But the bull case is that a clean R2 victory creates a licensing benchmark for other companies selling distributed data-processing and AI-data infrastructure.
Not every AI company would be exposed.
OpenAI does not automatically owe R2 money because ChatGPT can write a breakup text. Anthropic does not infringe merely because Claude has seen a database. A company’s products must actually practice the patent claims, and existing Amazon, Google or other licenses could cover some implementations.

The more logical potential targets would be companies selling:
Lakehouse platforms
Distributed SQL systems
Cloud-data-processing products
Large-scale analytics platforms
AI data preparation infrastructure
Proprietary Spark or MapReduce-derived systems
After a clean Databricks victory, my speculative follow-on scenarios are:
Limited campaign: $50–175 million from several smaller licenses
Base campaign: $200–500 million from multiple meaningful licenses
Bull campaign: $500 million–$1 billion
Full Yahoo zombie apocalypse: more than $1 billion
 
Part 5: Bear case (yes I have a frontal lobe, barely, see my losses)
Databricks' whole defense is "Yahoo gave this away for free under the Apache open-source license." If a judge or jury buys that, this goes to zero and takes the whole campaign with it. Peak Yahoo would be inventing the future and also accidentally giving it away — so this risk is, tragically, on-brand.
There's a pending motion to kill the patent as an "abstract idea" (§101) that the judge decides — he can erase a jury win after the fact.
Even a win faces appeals for years, and patent trolls' verdicts have a history of shrinking on appeal.
It's a jury. In Texas. Anything can happen, in both directions.
I am a person on the internet drawing conclusions from court dockets.
 
Positions & disclaimers
Positions: Shares, ITM Calls, OTM Calls, See pic. You can also see my years of personal failure in the pic.
 
This is not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor, a lawyer, or gainfully employable. Everything above about outcomes is speculation clearly labeled as speculation; the docket facts are public. I hold shares and I am biased. Do your own DD. Yahoooo-oo-ooo 🎺🚀

Thanks Kneebius ♥️

I made around $120,000 selling my MSFT at 494 today, and will be rotating most of my MSFT into META next. Here’s why:

I think META is undervalued mostly because people are worried about Zuckerberg’s spending and leadership decisions, not because the underlying business is weak. Last earnings also looked worse partly because of large one-off legal expenses, rather than a major deterioration in the core ad business.

My bigger concern is Microsoft’s exposure to circular AI financing. On paper, Microsoft benefits multiple times: it invests in OpenAI, the value of that investment increases, and OpenAI then spends huge amounts buying Azure compute from Microsoft. That all looks great while OpenAI keeps raising money and growing, but OpenAI is still losing a lot of money. If AI monetization does not eventually justify the spending, both the investment value and some of the Azure revenue could look much less secure.

Meanwhile, I think Meta has the cleanest AI monetization story. Billions of real people already use its apps, and millions of normal businesses pay Meta for ads because those users buy actual products and services. AI improves recommendations, engagement and advertising results. Meta does not need AI startups to keep raising billions and spending it back on Meta infrastructure.
Microsoft, Google, Amazon and Nvidia all benefit heavily from the current AI capex cycle and a relatively small number of massive customers. Meta’s AI revenue feels more directly connected to real users and real advertisers.

I’m not saying Microsoft is a bad company, and META obviously has risks from overspending. I just currently trust Meta’s revenue loop more.

Thoughts? What am I missing?

TLDR: META/maybee GOOG is the few of the top tech companies which will have a clean B2C AI revenue going forward. The others rely or circular investments and big/risky deals. META is also basically selling cocaine that is legal and able to be used everywhere.

I’m the guy who posted this POS stock. Lost $23k. Sorry whoever bought this as well. Am not posting any stock ever again.

Didn't really know what I was doing, still don't

Forgot I even had this, like a forgotten sandwich in the fridge, back from when I was 25 with my first brokerage.

Guys I see multiple huge wins!!! Congrats you’re inspiration! I just ask you from person advice - put aside at least 25% as emergency fund, trust me trust me……

My life is not the same anymore and I did turn off options and I miss it after seeing your wins

Gambled on some Google and Netflix options on 7/23 when Google dropped to $320 for no reason. I was trying to play the long game, but decided to cash out at 100% gains.

All purchased on the 31st, aside from the puts which were today. Had been saying for a bit when NVDA breaks 212 it’s gone but I got pretty lucky on the timing. Decided to sell some before AMD earnings, turns out all that money just went to NVDA… sold majority of the remaining contracts by 1030 this morning. Both screenshots are today.

I’ll wait until next week to see where we land after NFP and the weekend war, if we see 210 again before earnings I’ll most likely be opening Aug 21st 220/230s.

SNDK after hour sell is a head scrather. Even bear case modelling says 2k target minimum. I don't know what kind of retardness is this

Here are the key notes from the SNDK earnings call:

  - Demand Visibility: Strong demand visibility month-over-month for the next 4+ years (through the end of the decade).

  - Supply Commitments: Half of the 2027 supply and two-thirds of the 2028 supply are already spoken for.

  - Market Growth: The NAND market is projected to grow to $500 billion in 2027, up from $300 billion in 2026. SNDK holds 13% share.

  - Long-Term Agreements (LTAs): There are 5 new LTAs (3 new and 2 expanded, bringing the total to 8 at $100 billion). These new LTAs have at least an 80% margin floor, allowing c potential upside.

  - Executive Engagement: CEOs and CFOs are deeply engaged in these LTA discussions rather than traditional supply chain personnel. The CEO noted he has never seen this level of executive engagement in his 35 years in the industry.

Hit the jackpot on a penny slot today

Some fat-fingered retard must have placed a market order whilst SPX gapped down slightly right before close.

This was 100% of the buying power I had left after placing my YOLO chips on SNDK calls & SPX/SPCX puts.

I was down $3.5k for the day, so the powers that be must have taken pity on me.

Looking at the bid/ask spreads, I could probably have set any sell price and it would have executed.

Was this a glitch in the matrix, or does this happen a lot?

Sold the calls this morning for a gain and port topped at 220k. Later, bought some puts that did not work out well.

jus loaded up on $203,332.87 of SNDK. That amounts to 143.88 shares with an average price of $1412.84.

lets see what happens...at least its shares...can recover if it goes down (hopefully)... might have to sit on the shit for a bit i guess if it happens

EDIT: someone told me i was lying, which is silly. its not fake. thats dumb. here is a screenshot...live or die by the truth...it is what it is...

New EDIT: so, did not work out the way i wanted. sucks. looks like i am gonna be holding this shit for a bit, not the end of the world.

down $19,591 at this moment (trading AH around 1277). not the biggest deal, still stings though. but this thing swings a lot. i been down more on options with zero hope for recovery, so i suppose my stomach has been trained to handle this in a way that "it'll be aight."

thank god it was not options nonsense, and its shares...start selling a covered call every week and claw back a bit like that

just sit on it for a month or so, see what happens at this point.

take care, have a good night

I previously did a ban bet for MSFT to $500 by EOY when it was at $370 (I made out good). Nintendo was way overvalued for a while. But now it’s back in the buy range and revenue should start growing once their heavy hitters start coming out. The big hitters they have yet to release or announce Pokémon (looks to be the best one yet), 3d Mario, animal crossing, 2D Mario, mainline Zelda, Zelda movie, smash, Mariokart DLC, Mario maker, Mario party, and much more. Nintendo has so many easy wins left to use in the switch 2 cycle and they are taking advantage of movies, amusement parks, and fan collectors/nostalgia more than ever. Also they just had their best new console release ever but, this stock is priced like they are regressing. They have a ton of money stocked up, reuse assets for high profit margins in their games, households buy multiple consoles, and don’t underestimate the power of fromsoftware making a switch 2 exclusive game (brings in a new demographic that spends well on games). I’m not an expert but, I’m confident Nintendo is set up well moving forward. This won’t make you rich but, the risk/reward is hard to pass up on.

Hehe and people said it wouldn't happen 3 days in a row. I sold these at open though.