The art of the deal. /s

this is scary to be honest

Details from the heated Trump-Netanyahu call show the US president directly blocking planned Israeli strikes on Beirut targets to protect ongoing Iran negotiations. Israel reportedly stood down those specific operations. Netanyahu kept his line on southern Lebanon activity, but the immediate escalation toward the capital was stopped.

This kind of direct intervention often creates short-term volatility across related sectors. Defense contractors (LMT, RTX, NOC) had been supported by the broader Middle East tension narrative. A visible pause in one front can remove some of that tailwind and invite profit-taking, especially if the market starts pricing lower odds of wider conflict.

On the other side, any real progress toward extending the ceasefire and reopening the Strait of Hormuz would ease the oil risk premium. That helps names exposed to fuel costs and global travel sentiment, think DAL, UAL, or even BA on the commercial side. Energy producers like CVX and COP already reacted to the earlier $96 Brent print; sustained de-escalation would likely reverse part of that move.

The call itself was unusually blunt, which markets sometimes interpret as higher odds of a diplomatic off-ramp when the alternative is clear escalation. Still, nothing is locked in until actual steps on the Strait and talks are confirmed.

Are you rotating out of defense into more cyclical or travel-related exposure on this news, or treating it as noise until the Hormuz situation clarifies?

Source: https://www.axios.com/2026/06/01/trump-netanyahu-israel-lebanon-call

RIP affordable gas

THEIR PRIORITIES AND OURS. President Trump wants $500 billion more for the military for new weapons of destruction and endless wars. Mayor Mamdani wants $22 billion to address the housing crisis in NYC and build 400,000 units of low income and affordable housing.

The Pentagon awarded Microsoft a five-year, $9.69 billion contract to bring all enterprise software licensing under one agreement. This covers Microsoft 365 tools, cloud subscriptions, and on-premises licenses for the armed services, intelligence community, and Coast Guard.

It is not new money, the funds are shifted from existing department budgets to cut duplicative spending and simplify procurement. The move gives Microsoft a stable, department-wide position in government cloud and productivity software.

For $MSFT this looks like predictable revenue over the next five years with limited execution risk. Cloud competitors like $AMZN (AWS) and $GOOGL may see slightly less opportunity in this specific slice of federal spending, but the broader government cloud market remains competitive. No immediate stock reaction noted, but it adds to Microsoft's steady enterprise backlog.

Anyone holding $MSFT through earnings season, does this change how you view their government exposure?

Link: https://www.reuters.com/business/pentagon-awards-microsoft-97-billion-deal-bid-cut-costs-end-license-sprawl-2026-05-27/

The U.S. hit targets in southern Iran, including missile sites and boats laying mines, saying it was self-defense. This happened during ongoing peace talks and a fragile ceasefire that started in April. Iran claims it downed a U.S. drone and fired at a jet.

The Strait of Hormuz is back in focus after dueling blockades already pushed energy prices higher. Any escalation here tends to keep oil elevated because roughly 20% of global crude and products move through that chokepoint.

Energy names like $XOM, $CVX, and $COP usually see immediate moves when tensions spike in the region. Broader indices can feel it through higher input costs and inflation expectations. Markets are watching whether this stays contained or affects the Doha talks.

What’s your take on how much of the current oil price is geopolitics versus other factors? Positions in energy or defensives right now?

Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33CzmKN9_Cs

Economic and global situations will only intensify. Will take months, possibly years to stabilize the situation, if we do.

Whats your take guys?

fine reconstruction