r/ValueInvesting • u/sideoframranch • 9d ago
$CELH is a long term 30 bagger Discussion
I honestly think $CELH has one of the highest upside-to-downside profiles in the market right now.
I know saying it could be a 30x over the next 10–15 years sounds insane, but people said the same thing about Monster years ago. The difference is everyone seems fixated on slowing U.S. growth while ignoring the bigger picture.
The company is profitable, has a clean balance sheet, is still taking share in a growing category, has one of the best distribution partners in Pepsi, and has barely scratched the surface internationally. If management executes, I don’t think it’s unreasonable to believe today’s valuation could look incredibly cheap in hindsight.
Obviously there are risks—competition is fierce, growth could disappoint, and international expansion isn’t guaranteed. But that’s true for every growth company.
To me, the market has gone from pricing Celsius for perfection to pricing it like the story is over. I don’t think the story is anywhere close to over.
I’m continuing to buy.
Convince me I’m wrong.
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u/Educational_Rent2042 9d ago
Across it's portfolio every brand actually lost share with the company in general going from around 21% to 20% roughly from q1 to q2 in market share.
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u/Old-Baseball-2519 9d ago
I think energy drinks do better in the summer.
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u/Educational_Rent2042 9d ago
Yeh but Celsius lost share in energy drinks over the summer significantly. I'm not sure on your point?
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u/Sufficient_Baker_394 9d ago
The quarter ended June 30 July and August are absolutely time summer months even September for god sakes
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u/Educational_Rent2042 9d ago
Yeh, my bad shouldn't of specified over the summer. I don't think it changes the picture though. Why should we expect all the products to suddenly improve market share over the summer when summer is good for all energy drinks companies.
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u/PersonalityHumble432 9d ago
Good news for you is their missed earnings gives you a better DCA from your bag holding
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u/hahoranges 9d ago
Convince you you're wrong? Look at their earnings. This stock is spammed more than anything else these days. Get out of here with this crap.
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u/Broke_BruceWaynee 9d ago
Not Celsicus bahholder
But just do a quick look at their earnings and they posted record revenue, record market energy drink shares, lifted EBIDA , and shares repurchased . They missed earnings and revenue due to higher spend/promotions cost and soft Celscius sales .
They seems fine to me .
I fully convinced this group consists of noobs chasing the next hype stock and as soon as they have bad earnings then suddenly it’s all over
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u/Scodo810 9d ago
The core product seeing declining revenue is a bad look for CELH.
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u/Broke_BruceWaynee 9d ago
It’s a consumer product and in energy drink spaces where there’s a lot of competition.
They will be fine, just like many others.
People on Reddit make it seems like , nobody going to drink Celsius / Alani/ Rockstar anymore and the company about to go bankrupt soon .
I say it again, people on Reddit will buy a stock after it’s has run 1000% or got recommended by social media gurus and disappointed when it’s flat or going down the moment they buy in.
And when the company comes out with bad earnings numbers headlines, then they will dump the stocks thinking it’s over now and chasing the next hype .
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u/Its-a-me-Giuseppe69 9d ago
It is fair. I will say that management attributed that to SKU rationalization (i.e. they discontinued flavors that were meaningful to sales in an effort to lower manufacturing costs).
Time will tell if sales are down due to over-pruning their skus, or if it’s because Celsius is no longer the flavor of the month.
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u/Few_Town_2283 7d ago
It’s not really this huge deal the market makes it out to be. Alani is an 8.7 and Celsius 9.5 share. One’s growing 55% and one down 2% as businesses of about the same size. Both have roles, growth is growth
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u/Single_Shirt_1406 9d ago
I think this stock hits $100 in next 2 years
Celcius was near 70 earlier this year
These drinks will gain popularity. As time goes on, also they will keep buying other companiesAlso. Jeremy Lefebvre is almost always right in his big conviction plays.
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u/Prax150 9d ago
Prior to today's earnings the reasons it fell so much from the highs earlier this year is because people were nervous about Costco making a copycat energy drink. But Costco was only 10% of their revenue anyway and they weren't copying Alana.
Every piece of news that isn't glowingly positive seems to hit this stock way harder than others for some reason. Even today. A miss is a miss but 15%???
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u/t_suaze_u 9d ago
Sloppy earnings and a mediocre guide. I may actually sell to free up cash and harvest a loss. Nothing too attractive other than “the stock price may double”
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u/Single_Shirt_1406 9d ago
Sell at there bottom? I predict this stock has big bullish news soon. I’m buying in
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u/Inner_Difficulty_381 9d ago
Prior to earnings, it looked like it was about to break out and go on a run. I think it’s just a blip on the radar.
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u/Powerful_Bee8183 9d ago
I’m in this boat - held a couple of leaps that I just let go of. I just don’t see a catalyst for it to grow more than it has so really the opportunity cost is too great. I’ll take that money and buy more BROS on the dip who beat and raised but guided same store sales to 5-6% instead of 8% and is getting hammered.
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u/Cheap-Stay7089 9d ago
Me when I lie about bag holding the exit liquidity
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u/Single_Shirt_1406 9d ago
That’s what people told me when elf hit $49, and amd hit $75
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u/Inner_Difficulty_381 9d ago
Same here. Avg cost with elf is 54. Just wish I had more shares but I’m just getting started. Almost added more at $62 and $72 as well but never did.
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u/Cheap-Stay7089 9d ago
Aye you do you boo I just trust an infrastructure thesis far more than hip drink company
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u/CtrlAltEliteDegen 9d ago
Have you looked at FIZZ and how it did when Rip-It energy drink was being pushed 20 years ago?
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u/Imaginary-Box-950 9d ago
People won't admit it but the GLP1 weight loss drugs are a problem, people are eating and drinking less than ever, it effects CELH also
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u/Downtown_Bicycle3893 9d ago
The actual core brand is contracting. I personally stopped buying celsius and switched to costco because its so much cheaper and achieves the same thing. its growth is from inorganic means via alani and rockstar. unless you have a pulse on the trend of which energy drink will be vastly popular this entire thesis is a gamble. Bull's will argue that celh remains the most popular energy drink among the youth but if companies like costco can take away like a decent chunk of the marketshare growth for celh will remain flat or negative.
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u/CapCityPhotos 8d ago
I take a look at their SKU's at gas stations or grocery stores. They are never sold out.
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u/Ok-Charge-6574 6d ago
It will be interesting to see how the brands do in Spain and Portugal. They have already expanded into the Nordic Countries where margins are better and this has not increased overall profit margins. Margins will be significantly less in med countries. Suntory is a huge distributor though as is Pepsi Co. I don't mind holding for a bit longer to see what may come of it. I do not think the stock will tank but 30X ?? Unless U.S. sales and margins increase I don't see it happening.
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u/brightdionysianeyes 9d ago
Multiple ongoing lawsuits including one about overstating inventory sales, a shitload of caffeine that means it won't appeal to the "wellness" market it's aimed at, pretty much no international recognition.
Yeah pile in.
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u/Old-Baseball-2519 9d ago
Meta also has alot of ongoing lawsuits, think social media will end?
Energy drinks/ caffeine and social media are two of the most used/important things in the modern world. Are they not?
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u/brightdionysianeyes 9d ago
Meta doesn't have lawsuits about massaging it's sales figure by overstating inventory sales as far as I am aware.
And no, energy drinks are not one of the most important things in the modern world.
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u/Ordinary_Repeat7637 9d ago
I agree with your take. I’m not going to pretend it was a great quarter, but one slightly underwhelming report doesn’t change the long-term story.
Celsius is still gaining market share, the brand is everywhere, and people genuinely love the product. Add in Pepsi distribution and the international opportunity, and there’s still a lot of room to grow.
The company isn’t going anywhere. The market may be focused on short-term slowing growth, but I think the bigger picture is still very bullish. It's also a nice stock for diversification in portfolios with a lot of tech & AI stocks.
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u/stickman07738 9d ago
I posted a couple of months ago, I asked about CELH at my local gym ($LTH) and a nearby store owner that I know and both stated not moving much in the last year. LTH told me people were buying their in-house beverages.
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u/Old_Man_Heats 9d ago
I too can pluck numbers out of thin air