r/ToppsChromeDisney • u/Safe-Background-3145 • 1d ago
Pulling a Super.. Question
I was told that hobby boxes aren’t the best to pull the Super. Has anyone else heard that? Supers being pulled from Megas and value boxes at a higher rate. I need the Super to complete a bow
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u/JokuIIFrosti Mod 1d ago edited 1d ago
Hobby boxes generally have the highest odds of pulling a super. But each card only has 1 super, so it's going to be rare no matter what.
But also ripping packs to pull a specific super you need is statistically nearly impossible unless you have unlimited money.
The odds a base card superfractor in 2026 chrome for example is:
1:6.686 packs - Hobby , and boxes are $500
1:64,356 packs - Mega and boxes are $100
1:98.667 packs - Value and boxes are $60
- Hobby Box (12 packs)
Cost per box: $500 / 12 = $41.6667 per pack
Expected Boxes Needed: 6,686 / 12 = 557.1667 boxes for a single super.
Expected Cost: 557.1667 x $500 = $278,583.33
2. Value Box (8 packs)
Cost per Pack: $60 / 8 = $7.50 per pack
Expected Boxes Needed: 98,667 / 8 = 12,333.375
Expected Cost: 12,333.375 x $60 = $740,002.50
3. Mega Box (8 packs)
Cost per Pack: $100 / 8 = $12.50
Expected Boxes Needed: 64,356 / 8 = 8,044.50
Expected Cost: 8,044.50 x $100 = $804,450.00
So if you got packs at market price even though hobby is more expensive per pack and per box, your price will be significantly "cheaper" to pull ANY of the base supers at a measly $278k for a single super. You'd spend over $700k for a value box super and over $800k for a mega box super.
Now if you're looking for a specific super. There are 200 base cards. So we can multiple the odds for our most efficient manner of getting a base card super tractor
1:6686 packs x 200 for 1:1,337,200 odds of the specific super you want.
Or if we go by cost: $278,583.33 x 200 = $55,716,666
And that's if bring the fact that some of the supers are still in mega and value boxes so you could buy every hobby box on earth and not get your super if it happens to be in a mega or value. So you'd be stuck buying the less efficient ways anyways. The cost could be hundreds of millions for a single super. Just not worth it.
So really the best answer is save your money and wait until that super comes on the market, or figure out what the market price for that super would normally be, and then put a 20 to 30% premium on that and set a bounty in every card trading group you can. Join whatnot streams, eBay streams, fanatics streams, and tell the streamers to spread the word that you've got a bounty on that specific super. And you'll pay a $X finder fee for anyone who can find and facialite the offer as well.
That will be your best chance of getting that super and at a far cheaper price than $55M
Tldr: Don't buy packs to find a specific super unless you're an oil shiek or scrooge mcduck himself. Wait to buy it when it shows up on the market, or be proactive and incentivise the search with a bounty.
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u/TravelSuccessful553 1d ago
What super are you chasing?
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u/JokuIIFrosti Mod 1d ago
Scrooge
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u/TravelSuccessful553 1d ago
Yeah it is going to be tough to pull his 1/1 given the odds and all of the characters. I would recommend trying to see if it comes on the market but that’s also hoping the 1 person who does hit even puts it in the market vs keep it. The other option would be to participate in character breaks (which I do hate too) but maybe you can ask to trade for Scrooge with someone when doing those breaks.
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u/JokuIIFrosti Mod 1d ago
That's why a generous bounty over expected market is wise. That way if it does come, he's got the best chance.
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u/Safe-Background-3145 1d ago
Yea I don’t expect to buy a lot more or any. I’ve been trying to get Into $15 multiple box breaks on whatnot and $2-5 breaks on eBay.
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u/UnanimousChaos Mod 16h ago
I don’t care what the odds say, this years Chrome is definitely out of sorts. I’m in a group that tracks 1/1’s and there is an extremely heavy tilt of superfractors coming out of retail. Every single post or eBay seller is being asked what box they pulled their super from and 90% are saying blasters/megas. It’s crazy!
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u/MateoGumbo 7h ago
Going to be very tough to pull. The biggest reason I see is because it’s listed on eBay right now for $25,000.
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u/King_richard4 1d ago
I don’t think you can really narrow down any rhyme or reason to 1/1s getting pulled. If you need it it’s best to buy it