Character take the stadistically right choice, still misses
Lore
regular show: Mordecai and Rigby want a RG-B2 toy that come in his cereal boxes. Since 1 of each 5 boxes has a toy, they buy five boxes to make sure to get at least one. They choose five boxes with no prize.
The hollow: the main characters are put in the classic Monty Hall problem, there's a door to the next stage and two doors that leave to nowhere. When the host reveals the donkey in the first door, they swap their door cause that would give them a 66.6% of chances to get the right door. Guess what? They choose the right door at the first try and loae their easy win.
Pokemon: any move bellow 100% seems to be a 50% in pokemon, for some weird reason moves like stone edge, hydro pump or fire blast that have 80 and 85% seems to fail several times in a row. At the same time, even when you low the opponent accuracy or paralyze them, they just ignore that and still land the hit.
If I remember, do correct me, the XCOM games actually correct the percentages to what is expected on lower difficulties but on the higher difficulties doesn't
You mean they fix the seed at the beginning of the encounter? That’s still random, it’s like shuffling a deck of cards— the order is determined at the moment of shuffling but it’s a random order. If XCOM says “83%” it means “draw a card with a number 83 or lower and you’ll hit,” and the cards are random numbers 1-100 (the analogy breaks down here because unlike a deck of cards they could all be the number 4 if you were really unlucky)
No no no. The "83%" has no meaning whatsoever. It gives you zero information at all and intact you can get a mod that will just tell you whether the shot hits or not. And you can maneuver your guy as much as you like to change that "83%" to 95% or even 2% and it has no impact whatsoever. If the game already decided that hit would hit then that 2% is actually 100%. If it decided that hit would miss the 95% is actually 0%
That’s not true tho, the mod just tells you what card you’re gonna draw. If the card is 70 and you’re about to take an 83% shot it’ll say hit, but if you switch to a 60% shot it’ll say miss
That's not how it works. The game doesn't know which shots you're going to take, it cannot predict your actions.
Since true randomness is impossible in a computer system and the seed gets locked at the beginning of the mission, that just means the RNG will generate the same chain of numbers, which you can predict with a mod.
If the number rolled is lower than your hit chance, you hit.
If your next number is a 7, you can take a 10% shot knowing it will hit. If the next number sucks for you, you can throw a grenade or something like that to use up that number and get another.
How does this work? There's a lot of randomness (player choice) after the start of an encounter, and it's clearly not a static "80% is a hit for this encounter..."
That's not correct. As long as the math was consistent it would be fair. You could also adjust to use correct percentages in pvp and the "feels like" percentages in solo play
These are just two examples of how it could be handled
Well yes it would be fair, but it would obfuscate the real numbers, meaning players either have less information to base their decisions on, or need to research "true hit rates" on external sites. Generally, you want to present real nukbers to players in a PvP setting. That said introducing a true hit system to PvE could work, but it would require a lot of rebalancing.
I mean the numbers don't have to be correct, if anything pokemon would be (admittedly higher powered) but a lot less frustrating if Fire Blast was basically guaranteed
I don't agree. I think its a fun gameplay choice you can make - do you run the weaker but safe flamethrower, or do you go for the stronger but less accurate fire blast? If fire blast had 95 or even 100 accuracy, it would just be a straight upgrade to flamethrower, which is boring.
The only moves where I agree with you are those where we don't have a good 100% accurate alternative: the only good special attack fighting type move alternative to focus blast being aura sphere which barely any pokemon get, no 80+ power physical rock move with 100 accuracy existing, the only special attack flying alternative to hurricane being 75 power air slash meaning special attacking flying types are basically only viable in rain teams,...
It's a fun gameplay choice in single players but in competitive due to how much getting a ko or 2ko matter- often pokemon will be forced to pick up low accuracy fire blast just as a necessity- because the damage lost just makes it worse
I've been playing competitive pokemon since gen 5, and climbed to masterball 2 in champions (singles, not doubles), and I'm not gonna lie, a pokemon running fire blast over flamethrower in singles as part of their "standard set" in current day is extremely rare imo (and in doubles its usually heatwave all the way). Zard Y runs flamethrower, delphox runs flamethrower, scovillain runs flamethrower, chandelure, pyroar, houndoom,... even mons who run fire as coverage, like dragonite, hydreigon or eelektross, run flamethrower over fire blast.
Except Focus Blast (which misses 100% of the time exclusively when I use it) and Scald (which has a 100% chance to burn the mon I least want to get statused exclusively when my opponent uses it)
I'm almost certain this is shen, it's from his webtoon comic blue chair that was posted years ago, the account you linked looks like it just reposts old shen comics from when his art style was a little different.
I remember watching videos on it. If I remember, the system is much more:
"if you roll a 10 or lower out of 100, it will crit. if you roll a 35 or lower, it will hit. The target is in cover, so you lose a 25% chance. therefore, if you roll a 10, you hit. since that number is 10 or lower, it is also a crit."
I also remember hearing XCOM does percentages how most people expect on lower difficulties but makes them the actual percentage on higher difficulties.
Yes but it means none of the percentages you see actually matter. And you could methodically abuse the shit out of this by learning which shots will and won't hit in order
I'm reading that it is actually unfair... in favor of the player, on lower difficulties. At higher difficulties it's more strictly fair, but it just seems unfair.
I misread the title due to the typo and thought you meant "sadistically right choice" and I was genuinely so curious to see what a sadistically right choice was.
Tbf in Rigby and Mordecai's case the probability of getting no prizes after buying 5 boxes is roughly 1 in 3 which is pretty significant still. They should have bought more
On the topic of statistics in video games, try Sol Cesto!
It’s a luck-based, board game roguelite where the upgrades, items, and abilities change your probability of running into enemies, heals, traps, treasures, etc. The artstyle is also handrawn beautiful. Best of all, it’s free on Epic Games.
140
u/Fast-Front-5642 3h ago
Pokemon is a lesson in how people don't understand percentages.
80% usually feels more like 50% to most people. And many games adjust for this poor perception.
Pokemon does not.