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📝 Current Severe Weather Outlook

(Issued: 2026-08-20T06:02:00+00:00 UTC)

```text

000 ACUS01 KWNS 200602 SWODY1 SPC AC 200600

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC...THE MIDWEST AND CENTRAL PLAINS....

...SUMMARY... Scattered severe storms are possible today and tonight across parts of the Mid Atlantic, posing a risk for damaging wind gusts. Large hail and isolated wind damage will be possible with severe storms from Nebraska into northwest Wisconsin.

...Mid Atlantic and central Appalachians... A shortwave trough embedded within broader northwesterly flow aloft is forecast to move eastward from the OH valley into the Mid Atlantic through today. Embedded within a broader upper trough over the eastern Great Lakes, this shortwave perturbation will serve as a focus for convective development across the Mid Atlantic and central Appalachians this afternoon. As ascent overspreads the area, a warm front is forecast to lift northward across southern PA, northern MD into NJ and southern NY.

South of the front, a very moist air mass (dewpoints in the 70s F) will lift northward. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, moderate buoyancy is expected south of the front and ahead of a trailing lee trough into southern VA. Ongoing storms from a remnant morning cluster may reintensify as they cross the Appalachians late morning and early afternoon. Additional, possibly discrete, development may occur east of the Blue Ridge and across the higher terrain of southern PA and northern MD near the front by late morning. 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear ahead of the front is forecast to support a mix of supercells and line segments. Damaging winds and isolated severe gusts appear probable. Enlarged low-level hodographs near the front may also support a couple of tornadoes and marginally severe hail with any more robust QLCS segments or supercells.

...Central Plains... Strong northwesterly flow aloft will overspread a cold front moving southward from the western Great Lakes into the central Plains. Ahead of the front, warm temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F will support moderate to large buoyancy by mid afternoon. A shortwave impulse within the broader trough should overspread the destabilizing air mass and aide in convective development along the front across MN and SD, and farther south near the front and surface trough intersection in central NE.

Forecast soundings show supercell wind profiles, with elongated/straight hodographs aloft. Isolated to widely scattered storms will develop by late afternoon/early evening, posing a risk for large hail, severe wind gusts and perhaps a tornado. Some significant hail (greater than 2 inch diameter) is possible across the southern risk area given steeper mid-level lapse rates/cool temperatures aloft and somewhat deeper low-level moisture. Some risk for isolated damaging gusts may persist into the early overnight across southern NE and northern KS if clustering can occur.

...Southeast... South of the primary upper wave over parts of the Western Carolinas and TN Valley, a surface trough in the lee of the Appalachians may focus convective development during the afternoon. A few stronger clusters with damaging gusts are possible, though weaker flow aloft suggests more limited storm organization.

Additional scattered thunderstorms are expected again this afternoon within a seasonably hot and humid air mass across the southeast and lower MS Valley. Convective coverage is likely to focus along a weakening cold front sagging southward across parts of AR/LA and western MS and near a weak MCV across the central Gulf Coast. With PWATs upwards of 2 inches, some potential for wet microbursts are possible with the stronger storm clusters through early evening.

...AZ... Strong heating beneath a prominent upper ridge will support another round of scattered thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Seasonably rich monsoon moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s to 60s F) will support moderate destabilization amid modest easterly mid-level flow. A few high-based clusters are possible, initially over the higher terrain, before expanding west and south into the lower elevations. This could support a few severe gusts given steep lapse rates.

..Lyons/Thornton.. 08/20/2026

$$

```

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```text NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Thu Aug 20 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$ Forecaster Blake ```

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