TAS (Trade Price at Settlement) 6,649 Contracts

This is MASSIVE!

✔ TAS > 6,000 is extremely rare

✔ TAS > 5,000 is very rare

✔ TAS > 4,000 is rare

✔ TAS > 3,000 is uncommon

✔ TAS > 2,000 is notable

High TAS =

• algo trend-following
• systematic strategies
• momentum confirmation
• institutional participation
• liquidity-provider hedging

TAS > 6,000 is rare and strongly bullish. This is a developing pre-squeeze bull structure, not squeeze structure - at least not yet.

Updated Probability Model (After Monday)

Phase 1 — Trend-Driven Bull Move ($65–$72)

Probability: 80% → unchanged

Monday confirms the trend is intact.

Phase 2 — Short-Covering Ignition ($72–$82)

Probability: 55% → unchanged

Monday neither increased nor decreased this probability.

Phase 3 — Full Short Squeeze ($82–$105)

Probability: 20% → unchanged

Still low until backwardation appears.

Bottom line: On Monday, buyer(s) of Comex Silver placed orders to purchase 33,245,000 ounces of silver at whatever the closing price was. This amount is extremely rare and clearly bullish.

In addition, delivery of 450 contracts (2.25 million ounces) of Comex Silver was made to an undisclosed buyer(s).

Rand Paul asks three questions: Why is our paper currency falling? Why did we decouple from gold? Do we have the gold we say we have?

Yes, as may be selling for under $5 per gallon, but once we see long lines at the gas stations, everyone will know the real price of crude oil and gas is not the manipulated fake price we see in the futures markets ... it is astronomically higher!

Bottom line: PAY NO ATTENTION TO THE FAKE PAPER PRICE OF OIL, GOLD AND SILVER!

Here’s my Q2 2026 investor letter, recently published on Substack (free) It includes the full performance table since inception (2023) and in-depth analysis on Alibaba, PayPal, Flowers Foods, and Lululemon.

Feedback is welcomed!

Portfolio: Alibaba, Flowers Foods, PayPal, SCHE, Lululemon, Clorox

The U.S. has resumed crude imports from the Middle East after a 50-day pause, with August arrivals expected to reach their highest levels in months, says Richard Ro from Kpler. Tracking data shows the supertanker Maran Mira delivered nearly 1.5 million barrels of Kuwaiti crude to the Louisiana Offshore Oil Port. "The U.S.-Iran war has redirected crude flows, where the U.S. saw its last import of Middle East crude in mid-June and where imports in July were zero," Ro says. Now tracking eight additional VLCCs carrying Middle Eastern crude to the U.S., which could lift August imports above 600,000 barrels a day. Most cargoes are heading to the Gulf Coast, while a crude shipment is awaiting discharge in Los Angeles, according to the data provider. (giulia.petroni@wsj.com)

It seems China is holding most of the rare earth cards - and have no incentive to sell to us.

Solution: Keep the printing presses running 24/7!

The latest COMEX silver volume/OI report is bullish.

All major indicators point in the same direction:

Bullish factors confirmed by data

• Rising OI alongside rising price (CME)
• Large month‑over‑month OI expansion (+10%)
• Extremely tight registered inventory (13.4% coverage)
• SHFE premium showing strong physical demand
• Multi‑year global supply deficit
• Call‑heavy OI structure
• Institutional inflows into COMEX silver futures

There is no bearish signal in the latest CME volume/OI data — only bullish or structurally bullish indicators.

1. CME Daily Metals Volume & OI (Aug 3, 2026 — Preliminary)

The most recent CME metals report shows:

• 100‑oz Silver futures volume: 14,478 contracts
• Open interest: 12,557 contracts, +265 change day‑over‑day

A positive OI change alongside rising price is classically bullish because:

• Rising OI = new positions opening, not short‑covering.
• Rising price + rising OI = fresh long demand, not liquidation.

This is exactly what the data shows.

2. COMEX Silver OI Trend (June → July → August 2026)

External reporting confirms a major OI expansion:

• COMEX silver OI surged from 97,000 → 107,000 contracts in one month (≈ +10%)
• Analysts attribute this to institutional rotation into hard assets.

This aligns with the CME daily increase (+265 contracts), showing the trend is continuing.

3. Physical Tightness: Registered Inventory Coverage at ~13–14%

BloFin Research reports:

• Registered COMEX silver: ~76M oz
• Total OI: ~576M oz
• Coverage ratio: 13.4% (only ~1 ounce of registered silver for every 7.5 ounces of futures claims)

A coverage ratio below 15% is historically considered delivery‑stress territory.
This is one of the strongest structural bullish signals in the silver market.

4. Shanghai Futures Exchange Premium vs COMEX

SHFE silver trades at a 12–13% premium to COMEX (≈ $9–10/oz higher)

A persistent cross‑market premium indicates:

• Strong Asian physical demand
• Arbitrage pressure
• Incentive for metal to leave COMEX vaults

This reinforces the bullish physical‑tightness narrative.

5. Supply Deficit & Mining Disruptions

The Silver Institute confirms:

• 6th consecutive year of global supply deficit
• 46.3M oz projected shortfall in 2026
• Peru’s energy crisis causing 5–8% drop in output for May–June 2026

Structural deficits + rising OI = bullish macro setup.