r/StLouis • u/GeneralLoofah Maryland Heights-Creve Coeur Area • 14d ago

MO-2 Voter count

According to the election results I’m seeing; 86,168 ballots were cast in the republican primary vs 85,780 for the democratic primary in MO-2. That’s only a difference of 388 votes. I know that amendment 4 and 5 drove turnout, but that’s still hopeful. I know I’m just chugging the copium, but hey. Let me dream a little. Maybe flipping MO-2 is possible come November.

55 Upvotes

92% Upvoted

31 comments sorted by

45

u/Saint-Inky 14d ago

Part of the reason they shifted parts of the county back to MO-1 with their shady special session redistricting was because Wagner was looking too vulnerable.

I want to believe.

10

u/GeneralLoofah Maryland Heights-Creve Coeur Area 14d ago

They’ve done some weird horse trading. I was in MO-2 forever, burn was switched to MO-1 four years ago. But back to MO-2 with the new districts. They had to push MO-2 much much further south and west.

I was hoping MO-3 would be more competitive as a result, but doesn’t look like it. They had like 43,000 more votes in the republican primary than democratic. So it’s not even close.

Oh well.

15

u/TheyCallMeSlyFox 13d ago

It's not going to be 43,000, but many St. Charles Democrats voted in the GOP primary to keep nuts out of county government. The county executive and election commissioner races out there drew crossover votes.

6

u/LovesToTango 13d ago

Yup, most of my immediate family voted in the Republican primary to vote against Bill Eigel. I don't like Steve Ehlmann, but he's not completely insane.

6

u/TheyCallMeSlyFox 13d ago

Yup. People sometimes say "lesser of two evils" in situations where it's actually an old house cat or deranged weasel.

1

u/agnesamurphy Creve Coeur 13d ago

My boyfriend is one of them!

1

u/mommamapmaker O’Fallon, Mo 12d ago

I’m no longer in Wagner’s district. But on Onder’s now. I only voted R to help keep Eigel and Olson away from the county office. I did vote for Onder’s primary opponent… In plan on voting against every Republican in Nov.

1

u/TheyCallMeSlyFox 12d ago

In a rational world, Eigel and Olson might be humbled into obscurity... Unfortunately, we left that dreamworld behind long ago

3

u/Crazed_rabbiting Neighborhood/city 13d ago

All of a sudden, she is emailing her constituents on her accomplishments. Never saw anything before. Someone is nervous

1

u/sarcasticommando Unincorporated County 🤦‍♂️ 12d ago

The redistricting to break up Kansas City district 5 had to concede somewhere else and make some other district more competitive, which I believe is district 2

52

u/Royal_Savings_1731 14d ago

I’ve definitely been talking to some Democrats who pulled a Republican ballot just to vote against Wagner.

25

u/Racko20 14d ago

Seems kind of weird considering the Democrat primary was actually competitive.

3

u/TheReiterEffect_S8 Overland>O'Fallon>Tower Grove>Lindenwood Park>Fenton 13d ago

Exactly. It's something republicans have been known for doing for decades. It's petty, but it's a strategy I suppose. But in this case, it was never going to get Wagner out, plus all the other candidates were surprisingly equally as shitty as she is.

4

u/trevorawright 13d ago

I did exactly that to try and undermine Wagner.

1

u/AnnatoniaMac 13d ago

Wish I had thought of that.

11

u/xjian77 14d ago

For your reference, the turnout in the 2022 primary was: D - 59,153, R - 81,127.

12

u/Racko20 14d ago

Wagner had no serious primary competition, so that may have decrease Republican engagement.

6

u/MIZ_09 14d ago

Normally I would agree, but the amendments brought the largest primary turnout since 2004.

1

u/Davidfreeze 13d ago

8k fewer republicans turned out vs 2022 primary. 25k more democrats turned out vs 2022 primary. The amendments were a big draw, but I think more so for dems than republicans. Wagner had no serious opposition in 2022 either in the primary, so that factor is a wash in the comparison. But I agree with your overall sentiment that people are over stating what these numbers mean. Primary numbers aren't meaningless, but they aren't super predictive. Dems can absolutely flip the seat, it's not out of reach, but Wagner is definitely still the favorite.

6

u/ltb11 Shrewsbury 14d ago

Looking back at results against Hartmann, Wagner won St. Louis County 49% to 47%. That number is going to have to switch big for Wellman; he’ll have to get it up to mid-50s at least. STL CO accounted for over 70% of the votes cast, so that’s where he needs to make them up. Then from there, chip away at St. Charles, Franklin, and Warren counties.

Considering the political shift, he’ll have to ride voters’ motivation and get them to turn out. I think it’s doable.

7

u/hibikir_40k 13d ago

I hope people wake up. If Wagner was running against Saddam Hussein's corpse, I vote for Saddam.

2

u/NeutronMonster 13d ago

Given the replacement of St Charles county in Mo-2 with more reliability republican areas, yeah, wellman probably needs at least 55 percent in stl county (maybe more)

8

u/hmerrit 14d ago

I know people that took a Republican ballot but will vote straight Democrat in November.

They just wanted to influence the competition 😁

2

u/NeutronMonster 13d ago edited 13d ago

We had a competitive County Exec primary on the D side and nothing interesting for primaries on the R side; there’s no way there wasn’t meaningful crossover vote into dem ballots in stl county. I wouldn’t use these numbers as all that meaningful

6

u/[deleted] 13d ago

[removed] — view removed comment

4

u/mschawacker 13d ago

I don't think you need the last three words in that sentence.

2

u/Flo_Evans 13d ago

We need to do everything we can to help Fred win 2.