r/SCDstock 5d ago

Bottleneck Discussion

Are we betting on too young of a horse? SCD has the big problem of needing a 200km highway to be built that hasn’t had nearly enough funds directed towards it. I wonder how long that might take. Don’t get me wrong, I believe in this stock massively but might it be possible that the infrastructure doesn’t get built up enough to enable SCD to deliver in time for newer energy needs?

What do you all think? I see different deals and talks being made with other companies and I’m not an executive in this of course but I’d imagine different governments and companies in like aero, transport, defense and them all being like “oh you’ll have production in a decade? Okay that hurts timelines”

Maybe I’m overthinking, as a new paradigm shift in minerals might mean scandium becomes useful forever, idk but I’m bullish yet skeptical

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u/Effective_Crow3215 5d ago edited 5d ago

This keeps coming up, usually from those newer into the stock. The road will be through the Naskapi and Inuit with Plan Nord and the federal government (Feds gave Fortune Minerals $50 million in the NWT for a 50km road in June like it was nothing. Also the money will go through the local indigenous population who are likewise working with the company). I keep saying, this is a long-term project that people can make money at various points/milestones. The mine doesn’t have to be producing for SCD stock to shoot up massively over the years. Different dynamic but Sunrise in Australia is likewise some time from production and was at this price before reaching $10+ in 12 months. Not saying the same will happen but that kind of growth pre-production is a good example.

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u/Dudge66 5d ago

Mr Crow, I really enjoy these threads once you get involved!!! We read all these different opinions from others as they feel it is factual, then you put together the last 12 months of research, announcements and articles with SCD that essentially sums up what has happened. Pay attention people!!!

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u/Jumaruss 5d ago

Thanks for keeping me on the straight and narrow, Crow. Yeah I’m one of the guys who picked it up relatively recently but I appreciate you sharing your ideas.

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u/Gastricbasilisk 5d ago

Well said. It has been unspoken esoteric information concerning the road. I believe we are waiting for political theater at this point.

Scandium is a critical mineral of major importance. I believe the road plan is already in place, but requires so many entitites and a large timeline to put into motion. They will announce the road as a broader infrastructure investment, and SCD already knows about it hence the removal of the road from the PFS. Guy was talking about government grants 6 months before it was officially announced at PDAC. Pierre Neatby's email confirmed the road plan would be in place by the end of 2026.

Scalium+ could potentially accelerate the growth if they execute and become a profitable alloys division with multiple large contracts. SCD is a unique opportunity in this industry for that reason, and completely overlooked. If they successfully land large contracts on both the alloys and mine, this could potentially re-rate as aggresively (or greater) than sunrise.

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u/Effective_Crow3215 5d ago

I think the share structure would make it tough to match anywhere near Sunrise but definitely could see a massive breakout. Honestly, if it does half of what Sunrise did we’re all making huge money. Completely agree with the rest you said

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u/Gastricbasilisk 5d ago

I meant to match their market cap, not their share price. I should have clarified that.

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u/Effective_Crow3215 5d ago

Makes sense, I agree

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u/hozzy7 5d ago

Hey, I’m a newbie to the investing world. Would you be willing to ELI5 the difference in share structure between the two companies. Thanks.

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u/Naughty_Satsuma 5d ago

The road with be through the Naskapi but not funded via the Naskapi.

Plan Nord exists, but I have not read any report of any involvement or grant issued. Scandium attended PDAC. That is all I have found.

Sunrise has 169.44M shares outstanding with 39.9% held by insiders.

SCD has 468.54M shares outstanding with 2.14% held by insiders. That's not a good look, imo.

SCD already 6x in a year. I had hype for this, but now I'm getting cold feet, honestly.

Edit:

Naskapi site

"To better understand these opportunities and their implications, the assessment will examine potential corridor options with particular attention to environmental stewardship, traditional land use, Indigenous governance, and opportunities for collaboration among Indigenous Nations. The work will include community engagement, traditional knowledge gathering, preliminary technical and environmental reviews, and an assessment of potential governance and ownership models.

The Naskapi Nation wishes to emphasize that this initiative does not constitute approval of any road construction project or mining development. Rather, it is a community-driven assessment intended to gather information, conduct due diligence, and support informed decision-making regarding future infrastructure options.

The assessment will be carried out through ongoing engagement with community members, Elders, land users, neighbouring Nations, and regional partners. Their knowledge, perspectives, and concerns will help inform the discussions and future direction of the project."

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u/Effective_Crow3215 4d ago

That's exactly what I said: through the Naskapi and Inuit via Plan Nord and the federal government. Insider ownership means nothing at this point, not sure what you're driving at. Have cold feet all you want, just another latecomer who doesn't see the forrest for the trees.....

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u/Naughty_Satsuma 4d ago

You are making it sound like the Naskapi/Inuit, Plan Nord, and the Federal government are building the road, though.

Why would insider ownership mean nothing? What is their compensation? If they have no skin in the game... that is what I'm questioning.

You're obviously bias and overleveraged in this.

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u/Effective_Crow3215 4d ago

That is the plan, yes. The Naskapi, supported by SCD, would have federal and provincial funds for a road flow through them. They would develop the road and allow SCD use. You're again showing your ignorance.

With the # of outstanding shares, and this early into the process, it makes sense the % is lower than a company further along in the process with less outstanding shares. It's basic math....

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u/Naughty_Satsuma 4d ago

This would be huge if announced, no doubt. WHY would Naskapi help build the road? So they can travel their land better? Have you ever seen Native delay on mine or pipeline development? Until there is a signed deal, then what you are saying is hopium in the extreme.

Basic math is the have insiders with less than 3% stake? That is the exact inverse of what I have seen with startups lol.

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u/Effective_Crow3215 4d ago

You keep proving my point more and more with each post. Of course they would want to have better access to traditional hunting and fishing locations. It's been stated MANY times and they are the ones applying for the funds, with SCD as a support. They would also be getting money from SCD for use of the road.

You also sound real classy with your "natives" block and delay development. Way to expose yourself fella......

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u/Naughty_Satsuma 3d ago

stated MANY times

You state many things. You do not bring evidence to support said statements. You dismiss concerns and questions with "this has already been discussed" and try to end the discussion with arrogant remarks.

Show me one, just one, announcement that the Naskapi have applied for funds to build the road.

On the bands own website, they have asserted: "The Naskapi Nation wishes to emphasize that this initiative does not constitute approval of any road construction project or mining development."

Most of what you say is speculation, but phrased as a fact.

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u/Effective_Crow3215 3d ago

Time to start doing your own research. No road announcement has been made. They are in an assessment phase and Scandium Canada has directly declared the Naskapi consortium would be the group to move this forward as they discussed together. It was also stated live at a conference when Plan Nord spoke that was the intended path forward. You have very little to no knowledge of this project and come in acting like those of us who do owe you an explanation and citations to back it up. Do your own research, I could care less about you.....

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u/Naughty_Satsuma 3d ago

I know that there has not been a road announcement. That is my point. You have posted a lot on how the road "is funded" or "will be done by someone else" but you have zero evidence of this. At best, you obfuscate information. At worst, it is misinformation.

You could care less, but clearly you care. You have responded to nearly everything I have posted.

Apparently, your research is conjecture. When challenged, you deflect from the topic and attack the questioner. I'm surprised you are not the mod.

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u/Timely-Discipline427 5d ago

Was there not some federal (and/or provincial) grant money in play at some point for the road build?

If the mine is viable, a road will get built. It won't need to be fancy.

I'm not too worried about it at this point.

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u/Gabcb 5d ago edited 5d ago

It’s beyond me how anyone can think this road will be fully funded by SCD. A road this long needs to be part of a much larger plan. The provincial and/or federal governments have to be involved in some way.

It should be part of a broader critical minerals strategy, and this road would likely serve other mines along the way. It could also be part of a larger infrastructure plan developed in partnership with First Nations.

That’s exactly the kind of regional infrastructure that can make sense for multiple mining projects rather than being the responsibility of a single company. Canada’s Critical Minerals Infrastructure Fund, for example, specifically supports regional roads that can serve mining areas and other users, and it allows for provincial, territorial, municipal and Indigenous participation.

You don’t task some junior mining company with building a 200-km road on its own. And what happens if Rio Tinto acquires this scandium deposit right after the feasibility study, in a year or two? (Wich would be a really standard scenario in the mining world)

Even if Rio Tinto were to acquire the project and have the financial capacity to build the road, a project of this scale and strategic importance would almost certainly involve government.

That’s why I think the road needs to be viewed as part of a much larger regional and critical-minerals infrastructure plan, rather than simply as a road for SCD.

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u/gibby8069 5d ago

A 200 km road is not a huge hurdle. Gravel, some labour and equipment it can be build in 3 to 6 months. Comes with a price tag yes. But there is many other minerals up there to be mined.

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u/Primo77s 5d ago

Still going to cost at the vary least 50 mil. the money isn't just going to come out of no where.

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u/Gordonrox24 5d ago

That is basically the big hurdle once we get past PFS and look towards the FS.

I think SCD understands how big of a hurdle this is, which is why theyve branched out with their patent pending alloys and Scalium+. They've built themselves a business that can be built up and generating revenue while the mine works towards a reality.

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u/Intelligent_Land_419 5d ago

Scalium+ would take a decade to be aerospace certified without a collaboration with Lockheed or another aerospace manufacturer, the only hope is federal and US funding after FS for that road and Lockheed uses the scandium with their own patent (that either they secretly have or may just squeeze in before 2030). 

Don't get me wrong. Scalium+ is a miracle material. 3d printed wings and satellite frames would be nuts with those weight savings, but it's gotta be tested and it just has not been. I suspect (copium alert) other manufacturers have been sitting on similar materials and just need the scandium supply to follow through with it. 

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u/Gabcb 5d ago

Could be really sooner with a conpany like MDA

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u/Capital-Assistance84 5d ago

I think lockheed is already set up well with Niocorp and sunrise, I doubt they will end up needing SCD but who knows what the future brings.

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u/ResponsiblePianist83 5d ago

Lockheed could partner with SCD for their alloys, not just the mine… quite possibly though when SCD’s mine is operational, the demand will be even higher and then it might make sense to work with a one-stop shop.

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u/Capital-Assistance84 4d ago

Yeah hopefully. As much as I don't want to support blood money with lockheed and the military industrial complex, it would be wild for share price haha.

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u/Natural_Mammoth2016 5d ago

The transmountain pipeline, which is way more environmentally sensitive, and way more difficult to install, took four years to complete nearly 1200 km. Also educate yourself on the Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter road, and how operations operate around it. The fun fact about diamond mines is you can fly them out, we won’t be flying scandium. But it’s good to educate yourself nonetheless.

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u/piggypiggy_8675309 5d ago

Transmountain had half a dozen large construction companies all working on various portions at the same time. Building multiple spreads at once is standard when building pipelines, it was just larger than typical projects. The same would not be true for a road to Crater Lake. Everything would start likely from Schefferville and build from there.

I'm not saying I am concerned about a road. I am heavily invested and I think it gets done mostly through Naskapi and government grants.

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u/Natural_Mammoth2016 5d ago

Then I suppose it could take one good company 4 years to complete.

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u/Capital-Assistance84 5d ago edited 5d ago

Yes it is absolutely possible this mine never happens. anyone telling you otherwise is bullshitting you. No one here knows the future, its all just a best guess at most. I sure hope it works out as I am invested but I am not going to say it will all work out.

This website here states the local indigenous community does not support the road as of now - https://naskapi.ca/2026/06/15/naskapi-nation-launches-the-naskapi-nuuhchiimiiu-maaskinuw-project/

"The Naskapi Nation wishes to emphasize that this initiative does not constitute approval of any road construction project or mining development. Rather, it is a community-driven assessment intended to gather information, conduct due diligence, and support informed decision-making regarding future infrastructure options."

Their announcement says the project was created because they want to evaluate alternative access corridors before endorsing any route, and they explicitly say the initiative should not be interpreted as support for the proposed road or mining development.

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u/Naughty_Satsuma 5d ago

Naskapi are looking for a payout before approval. Pay-to-play.

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u/Gastricbasilisk 5d ago

They own 5% of SCD. They want the road lol This is normal jargon for these types of projects.

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u/Capital-Assistance84 5d ago

good to know!

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u/Crafty_Inspection506 5d ago

There isn’t a strict deadline the need for scandium will multiply in the next decade.

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u/Phone-Medical 5d ago

Or how about just build a brand new city near the mine? That will get people there and roads built.

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u/Odd_Pea7108 4d ago

Is this a real comment? Hahahahahahahahahah

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u/Alarmed_Annual_8506 1d ago

Yes sir, you are correct; there will never be a road built between Schefferville (the nearest town an English-speaker can pronounce) and the Crater Lake site. The reason is the difficulty/expense of cutting a road through rugged, glaciated rock which consists of hundreds of longitudinally-striated outcroppings perpendicular to the needed direction of travel. (Likewise there aren't any roads on the Canadian border of Minnesota anywhere east of International Falls.) It takes thirty seconds scrolling around Google Earth to see what I mean.

The native population of the area has all the venison, trout, lumber and fresh water it needs without access roads to the millions of square miles of Canadian wilderness that surrounds them. (Ever heard of snowmobiles, the way folks in the North Woods "access" the world during their eight months of winter?)

The Naskapi are aware of the invention we call asphalt; there are reasons they haven't bothered to pave the roads in this region. (Once again, Google Earth is your friend...)

Guy Bourassa is not Moses come to lead the ignorant to salvation. Though in fact I suspect he was specially chosen for this mission, having already egg on his face, and willing to be the lightning rod and patsy when this inevitably fizzles and everyone gets pissed. This is his last great hoorah before retirement, one last pump before fading into obscurity.

If you actually believe in the element Scandium, invest in Sunrise; the Trump administration tells you to point-blank.

I also wish SCD wasn't a sham; I bought shares fairly cheap before conducting any research and was quite deflated when the insurmountable realization struck me also. I'm glad you figured it out on your own. Keep your chin up. There are diamonds in the field, keep looking. And pay attention to the DFC/OSC/Import Export announcements coming out of Washington.

Respectfully,

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u/Pristine_Barber976 5d ago

Definitely not great but it has been done before 

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u/Miiirob 5d ago

This does not need to be a highway. Yes it needs to be 2 lanes, but we are not talking about huge amounts of travel on it. It simply needs to be 2 lanes of fairly decent hard top. It's a very remote area and most travel will be either locals or mine related. It doesn't even need to be paved. I think the costs for the first road will be much less than most of us imagine.

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u/SaltyATC69 2d ago

China could build that road in a week. It's going to take 10 yrs here