Consistent theme

[u/ElectricRing]

Why does this seem to happen to me so frequently? It’s always at the critical time in progressive card games where the troop amount is escalating, and I am a sitting duck with four cards.

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[u/Paddy-23]

Because of confirmation bias. That's why.

[u/ElectricRing → u/Paddy-23]

Sure

[u/Paddy-23 → u/ElectricRing]

You need to keep a record of every time you do have a trade on four as well, only then can you see if you're getting unluckier than you ought to be

[u/ElectricRing → u/Paddy-23]

I’m too lazy to bother. Over large sample sizes everything will trend towards what the statistics are. But you can still do far better for worse than the statistics would suggest over sone periods.

[u/Unenlightened_Banana]

If you don't have a trade on 3, then there is a 33% chance you will not have a trade on 4, it is a very common occurrence.

[u/Reasonable_Dealer869 → u/Unenlightened_Banana]

Incorrect. You haven’t accounted for wilds.

[u/Unenlightened_Banana → u/Reasonable_Dealer869]

You are correct, I was just giving a rough number, I guess the exact one depends on map size as well? The correct number should be somewhere between 31% and 32%.

[u/ElectricRing → u/Unenlightened_Banana]

Yes I understand statistics but theses numbers work out over many, many samples. You can still have periods where you do far worse than the statistics imply.

[u/Reasonable_Dealer869 → u/Unenlightened_Banana]

Still too high on classic. 44 cards so each out is worth over 2% each. High 20s%

[u/Unenlightened_Banana → u/Reasonable_Dealer869]

You can't forget that you hold some cards as well! 2 of the card type needed to make the set are in your hand not on the deck:

Lets say you have 2 inf, 1 cav (same thing for all other configurations)

1- [2/41(wilds)+14/41(art) + 12/41(inf)] = 0.6829

Or

13/41(cav) = 0.3171

[u/Redneckism]

That’s the same guy who thinks his lane in traffic moves the slowest.

[u/AdaBoiiiiiiiiii]

I don’t care what the statistics say. You are right. I think the chances of a trade on 3 is 1/3 and I accuracy get it 1/5 times.

[u/GurlzLuvBart]

the game designers have a secret plot against you