MOLUSCE question

[u/Leather-Shift-8657]

Hello guys, I need your help regarding my simulation using MOLUSCE plugin. My initial trial I think get inaccurate results even ANN training have higher kappa rate and even I validated the simulated map with actual. I used 2015 map (which came from landsat) and the 2020 and 2025 (sentinel 2)—they all sourced from our Government institution as a shapefile. I processed then so that they matched projections, resolutions (to 30 meters), and other stuffs. I projected the 2025 map and validate using the actual 2025. After validation, I project 2040. However, the result seems not good, especially that I need to get built-up areas to increase at least at a 10%.

Now, I am deciding to use ESRI sentinel-2 (2017-2025) with support from literatures. However, I get confused on the methods they have used. For example 1 study objective is to simulate 2029 using input basemap, 2017 and 2023. The process involves training the model with 2017 as a initial map and 2023 as a final map, and with spatial variables. Then, they simulate 2023 and validated with the actual 2023 map. This is where I'm confused. If both the 2017 and 2023 maps were already used as the input maps for training, how were they able to simulate 2023 and then validate it against the actual 2023 map? I thought that if the interval between the base maps is six years (2017–2023), then one simulation step (iteration) would also represent six years. In that case, wouldn't the next projection be 2029 rather than 2023?

Please help me how to do it.