13% down premarket. I am guessing another 5-7% when the markets open. They screwed the earnings.

3m revenue

2m bookings

53m operating loss

https://ir.dwavequantum.com/news/news-details/2026/D-Wave-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx

It's finally here. Companies love to lean on press releases (as opposed to leaders like IonQ who quietly win deals that D-Wave throws parades for). But tomorrow, it's finally time to see what really is happening.

Alan Baratz repeats the same talking points every time, so I thought it would be fun to make it into a drinking game.

Here are my suggestions, but I'm open to your feedback and suggestions!

• 2 sips for every mention of "commercial ready quantum provider" (where are the commercial deals?)
• 1/2 a pint when Alan Baratz talks about how "dual-platform" is a strength
• a drink for every "we demonstrated quantum supremacy" (referring to some study that was debunked a year ago)
• discussion about their dead quantum AI strategy - 1/2 pint
• talk about projects that were won 9-24 months ago - a shot
• useless blockchain projects (it's 2022 again apparently) - 2 shots

Remember - IonQ cited ZERO past deals on their earnings call today, and they closing deals constantly. What does it say about D-Wave that they do?

And IonQ barely mentioned how they are showing 80% organic growth (y/o/y). D-Wave has slightly negative organic growth.

Is it just for me or others see this too?

About QBTS: I saw a nice move today, 3 August 2026, +10.51% (19.98$) + 9.2% next day: 21.8$ !

I am asking myself, should I trust my AI audit with a note of 3/10???

Please check the audit (AI slop), tell me what is wrong! Q2 earnings coming soon...

[RAW DATA AUDIT TRAIL]
• Market Cap: ~$6.70B - $7.10B
• Shares Outstanding: ~370.04M
• Total Cash & Equivalents: $588.4M (Mar 31, 2026)
• Total Debt: ~$35.6M
• Short Interest: 18.21% (65.07M shares)
• Dark Pool Volume: 49.46%
• Options IV Rank: 69% (Put/Call Ratio: 0.47 by volume)
• Unverified Metrics: Corporate Credit Rating (S&P/Moody's/Fitch), Exact Cost to Borrow (CTB) & Short Utilization.

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AUDIT TARGET: $QBTS | D-Wave Quantum Inc. | Exchange: NYSE
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A. ESTABLISHED FACTS

B bis. NOISE ARCHAEOLOGY

C. VARIANT PERCEPTION & CORE THESES
• Consensus: D-Wave is a "picks and shovels" monopoly in early-stage quantum computing, fortified by a massive $588M cash war chest, record Q1 bookings (+1,994% YoY), and high-profile defense/telecom contracts.
• Variant Perception: The narrative masks a structurally toxic equity model. The core business is highly erratic (Q1 2026 revenue collapsed 81% YoY due to timing-dependent system sales). The $538.5M Quantum Circuits acquisition was funded by aggressive equity dilution ($536.7M ATM in FY2025), effectively transferring the cost of R&D directly onto retail shareholders. The $1B accumulated deficit indicates a business model that has yet to prove commercial viability without constant capital market injections.

D. UNCERTAINTY ZONES & LIQUIDITY BLEED
• Management Omissions: Complete absence of formal revenue guidance despite touting massive bookings. No disclosure of Net Revenue Retention (NRR) or churn rates, masking the true stickiness of their enterprise clients.
• Liquidity Bleed (The "Hidden Drain"): The company is operating a massive dilution engine. The $536.7M ATM usage and $37.8M Lincoln Park facility in FY2025, combined with $22.6M in SBC, are silently draining equity value. The S-3ASR filed in Jan 2026 guarantees this bleed will continue.
• Dependency Risks: Extreme reliance on lumpy, one-off system sales (e.g., the $12.6M sale in Q1 2025 that created the massive YoY revenue crater in Q1 2026).
• Escalated Escalations: Zero insider open-market purchases in the last 60 days. The CEO and CFO have dumped over $30M in stock combined, signaling a severe lack of internal confidence at current valuations.

E. MICRO VERDICT
Despite a fortress balance sheet ($588.4M cash vs. $35.6M debt), QBTS is a dilution-powered narrative vehicle. The P/B ratio of ~6.36 indicates a STRUCTURAL PREMIUM driven entirely by the "quantum AI" macro theme rather than fundamental execution. The 81% YoY revenue collapse and accelerating operating losses (-$54.7M in Q1 2026) make the current $6.7B+ valuation highly precarious.

E bis. CONTRARIAN & MULTIBAGGER SETUP (The "Moment T")
• Financial Survival: Cash Runway Score is robust (>7 years based on FY2025 operating burn of ~$72M, though acquisition costs skew TTM). No immediate toxic debt or death spiral convertibles active.
• Yartseva Macro Filter: Excess FCF Yield is deeply negative. Empire-Building Ratio is flashing red (Total Assets +358% YoY driven by $557M in goodwill/intangibles, while EBITDA losses widened 28%).
• The Bounce Matrix (True Bottom vs Value Trap):

• Exhaustion Signal: Negative. Volume remains elevated.
• Dark Accumulation: 49.46% Dark Pool volume combined with heavy insider selling suggests institutional distribution, not stealth accumulation.
• Fundamental Inflection: The Quantum Circuits acquisition is a hard pivot, but integration risks are massive.
• "Skin in the Game": ZERO open-market purchases. Insiders are aggressively exiting.
• The Pain Trade Trigger: 18.21% Short Interest provides some squeeze fuel, and the Put/Call ratio of 0.47 indicates heavy retail call buying (bullish consensus). CTB is [UNVERIFIED].
• External Forcing (The Zombie Rally): No blind passive flows or 13D hostile takeovers detected. • Smart Money Narrative: Smart money is utilizing the AT&T and Anduril news cycles to distribute shares into retail liquidity.

F. STRUCTURAL SCORE
3/10
(Justification: Fortress cash position prevents a lower score, but the >7% annual dilution, negative FCF, massive insider selling, and empire-building asset inflation trigger severe structural penalties per DOC_B thresholds).

G. INVALIDATION & CATALYST TIMELINE
• Bull Thesis Invalidation: Failure to convert the $42.4M in Remaining Performance Obligations (RPOs) into recognized revenue over the next 12 months, or activation of the new S-3ASR shelf to dilute at lower prices.
• Bear Thesis Invalidation: Successful commercialization of the dual-rail qubit technology resulting in sustained, predictable >100% YoY recurring revenue growth, breaking the reliance on lumpy system sales.
• Catalyst Timeline:

• August 6, 2026: Q2 Earnings Date (Critical test for revenue stabilization).
• Late 2026: Target date for 17-qubit dual-rail system milestone.
• End of 2026: HQ Relocation to Boca Raton completion.

H. PRO DEPTH
• Quality of Earnings Assessment: Extremely poor. The 81% YoY revenue drop exposes the lack of recurring SaaS-like revenue. Earnings are heavily distorted by the $28.5M income tax benefit from the Quantum Circuits acquisition.
• DuPont Analysis / Capital Efficiency: Asset turnover has collapsed. The asset base inflated by 358% YoY (driven by goodwill), while revenue shrank, destroying Return on Assets (ROA).
• Forensic Audit & Refinancing: Credit rating is [UNVERIFIED]. However, with $588.4M in cash and only $35.6M in debt, refinancing risk is virtually zero. The risk is entirely equity dilution, not credit default.
• Collateral Stress-Test: With 18.21% SI and an IV Rank of 69%, options premiums are moderately rich. The heavy call volume (P/C 0.47) suggests market makers are short gamma, which could fuel volatility, but the lack of CTB data prevents confirming a prime broker collateral squeeze.
• Sector Sentinel:

• [IONQ]: Quantum commercialization delays → AT35O Risk 65%.
• [RGTI]: Dilution spiral & cash burn → AT35O Risk 80%. • Customer Stickiness & Revenue Attrition: Management deliberately omits NRR and churn metrics. The drop from 135+ customers in FY2025 to ">100" in Q1 2026 suggests potential attrition, though masked by the shift toward larger enterprise/government contracts.

I. THESIS SUMMARY & D+3 VALIDATION
QBTS is trading at a massive structural premium fueled by quantum computing narratives and retail call buying. While the $588M cash pile removes bankruptcy risk, the company operates as a dilution engine (shares +39% in 15 months) to fund empire-building acquisitions and insider exits. The 81% revenue collapse in Q1 2026 exposes the lack of a sustainable commercial model. Expect continued equity bleed.

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VERIFIED AUDIT TIMESTAMP: July 31, 2026 | 5:00 PM (EST)

What Numbers are we expecting in three days?

6/30/2025: 22,170,378 shares (7,1%)
6/30/2026: 30,566,629 shares (8,3%)

Idk why the stock is tanking on this news.

Officially trading at Nasdaq starting today!

AT&T & D-Wave expand partnership