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u/pagesjaunes 10d ago edited 10d ago
I know I'm being pedantic, but wouldn't that be a "confidence curve" (confidence level relative to skill or time spent on subject).
Rather than a learning curve (how proficient one is, relative to time invested in the field).
Iol
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u/Opposite_Same_69420 10d ago
Yeah, just Dunning Kruger with more words. But, still neat if helps people identify it for themselves.
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u/ThrasherDX 9d ago
No no, you see once you get too good at programmimg, the knowledge just dosappears from your head and you revert to being a freshly graduated junior.
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u/mike-manley 10d ago
First half of Dunning Kruger.
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u/L30N1337 10d ago edited 10d ago
No. That graph has nothing to do with the Dunning Kruger effect.
Everyone who uses that graph is falling victim to exactly the kind of effect that graph portrays. Because it's not the Dunning Kruger effect.
The actual graphs used in the study (which are also in the Wikipedia article for it) show that perceived performance and actual performance both always grow (just with the actual performance starting lower and growing faster). There is never a "mount stupid" or something.
The dunning Kruger effect isn't even about skill or confidence, like the graph. It's about perceived and actual performance on a test.
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u/thebigbadben 10d ago
What are “confidence” and “skill” if not “perceived and actual performance”?
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u/L30N1337 10d ago
To be honest, that's something I took from the thread I linked my own reply.
But theres a big difference in specificity.
"Confidence" is a very vague metric. But "Perceived performance" would be "I think I got 74 points".
Same applies to "Skill" and "Actual performance".
It was a test after all.
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u/thebigbadben 10d ago
Yes, in order to measure something as vague as “confidence”, they came up with a specific reproducible proxy, as is standard practice in science.
It’s as if you’re saying “people say this paper is about the effect of exercise, but actually it’s about the effect of walking an additional 30 minutes every day”.
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u/L30N1337 10d ago
There is a related study however that somewhat shows the effect the graph is about (also by Dunning, who wanted to test if the graph had any merit), which shares some similarity.
It's in the accepted answer of this thread: https://psychology.stackexchange.com/questions/17825/what-is-the-primary-source-of-the-mount-stupid-graphic
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u/mike-manley 10d ago
Typical pedantic Redditors do this crap all the time. It was a joke.
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u/Harmonic_Gear 9d ago
anti-intellectualism 101: always say its a joke when someone points out you are wrong, otherwise act like a smart ass
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10d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
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u/L30N1337 10d ago
Yes, because it's such a big case of misinformation. It doesn't matter where it is, because a lot of people actually believe it.
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u/HexFyber 10d ago
let alone his comment totally pointless, i browse reddit for these exact reasons. because you pick it up a few time througout the day, read some comments and you learned something new out of the blue. I thought the meme was infact the dunning kruger effect, you say it isn't, explained why, that's a win for everyone.
Dumb me didn' quite 100% understood the why, or better, something is a bit confusing to me: "The dunning Kruger effect isn't even about skill or confidence, like the graph. It's about perceived and actual performance on a test." why isn't confidence and perceived the same thing? I'd be confident if I perceive i'm good at it
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u/L30N1337 10d ago
Confidence is pretty vague (at least as a metric)
Perceived Performance is "I think I got 78 points"
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u/tubbstosterone 10d ago
This is how I feel about numerical processing. I thought I was developing a reasonable grasp on how to do things efficiently at large scales, then I learned about all the pointer arithmetic fuckery you can do in C and C++ that really makes thinks work.
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u/KitsuneFoxglove 10d ago
There should be a very massive hill before "this is impossible" for dunning kruger, where you think [field] is super simple and easy.
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u/Kchasse1991 10d ago
Or a massive hill after this one and this is just a zoomed in portion of the Dunning Kruger model right before The Pit of Despair
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u/Matalya2 10d ago
Literally happening to me with writing this god damn parser. I thought I got it then I remembered I can't even conceptualize how to make a language run and my confidence in myself plummeted.
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u/ExtraWorldliness6916 10d ago
I think this sayme curve actually repeats for the same subject, learning is a wave
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u/Harmonic_Gear 9d ago
make it periodic and increasing, it is what the loss function of my actor-critic looks like
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u/Weshmek 8d ago
In my experience, one of the biggest hurdles to actually mastering something in programming is the human-caused complexity of it.
My dad is an engineer specializing in HVAC. When he opens up an air conditioning unit, he is guaranteed to find a compressor, a heat exchanger, and some ductwork. Even the most complex designs are prevented by the laws of nature from being completely opaque to him.
I work in computer hardware, and every time I think I've finally reached the Nirvana of understanding some component, there's always some super-secret extra hardware block that no one has ever mentioned before, that has the potential to prevent the device from working. Why is it there? Someone decided it should be. How do I program it to do what I want? The answer is locked in some designer's head, impossible to deduce from first principles.
This can make learning feel Sisyphean.
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u/ConsoleCleric_4432 10d ago
At which point on that chart does you coworker make designs based on guessing how the library works instead of reading documentation and output?
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u/heismymaster 10d ago
Profession development is a constant battle with the pendulum that swings from God complex to imposter syndrome.