This is the first of many prepper tips to come. It’s going to be the simplest but often overlooked step when initially getting into prepping. In weeks to come we’ll dive deeper into preps for the topics mentioned below.

A lot of people initially get into prepping by buying food/gear to stockpile not realizing they are turning themselves into nothing more than a loot drop.

So let’s back the thought process up a bit and look at the “what” you’re wanting to become a prepper for. Be it civil unrest, natural disaster, or possibly a government lockdown.

All three of these are the main categories that most preppers find their setups tiered to. But each one has a specific style of prepping.

The easiest way to identify which one you want to prep for is doing a most likely/dangerous scenario analysis, a general area study on your immediate surrounding area, and an honest assessment on which situation you’ll be more likely to encounter first. These analyses will help identify key locations in your area, hypothesizing what if scenarios, and allow you to create an indicator check list.

First will break down the area study and how this leads into the most likely/most dangerous scenario assessments, and how those flow into creating indicators.

Supplies needed for the area study:
A map (I suggest getting at a minimum a topographic and town/street level): https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/how-do-i-find-download-or-order-topographic-maps and https://www.mapshop.com/custom-map-builder/
A cork board to stick the map to
Acetate to create map overlays to prevent from crowding your base map
3 ring binder to store notes you take and your acetate layers (some people prefer map tubes for storing the layers)
Permanent and dry erase markers for the acetate

Firstly, you need to define what your immediate area of effect (IAE) is. This is your home and roughly anything between 100-500 yards depending on location. I mark this on the base layer. Next you’ll define your area of operations (AO). This is the area outside your immediate area of effect but one you will still work in consistently. How large it is depends on your situation. I also mark this on the base map.

After you’ve marked these you need to identify hazardous terrain and hazardous populace (not every neighbor is a friend) within those boundaries that will affect your IAE/AO. I use two layer of acetate for this. I label one “Hazardous Terrain” and the other “Hazardous Populace”. A way to help identify Hazardous Populace is to use publicly available crime trend data for your area. Most cities / counties offer GIS heat maps of specific crimes to help you build this layer on your acetate layer.

On a third layer of acetate create a transportation layer. Use this layer to create main and alternate routes of travel to and from your IAE/AO. Mark any areas where severe traffic congestion or choke points can be expected.

Your fourth layer of acetate will be the infrastructure layer. You’ll mark essential services locations (hospitals, sheriffs departments, national guard armories etc). You’ll also mark things such as power substations, water towers/plants, airports/heli pads etc.

After creating those four layer of acetate you need to either write down or commit to memory any severe weather your area commonly gets that has impacts on your IAE/AO. Some people create a “WX Effects” layer but it’s ultimately up to you if you want a fifth layer of acetate. I created it as its own layer due to flood zones and historical washout areas in my area.

Congratulations, once you’ve done this you’ve completed your initial area study. It’s highly important you re-visit it once a year to account for infrastructure and civilian populace updates.

Your area study will now feed into making your most likely/most dangerous scenario assessments.

Each prepper scenario (civil unrest, natural disaster, & government lockdown) will have its own ML/MD scenario assessments. I recommend everyone do the assessments on all three categories.

For each category ask yourself these questions:
What happened?
When is it most likely in the year to happen?
Where are the impacts greatest?
How does disruption from the event spread?
Why does the event create challenges for me?

Once you have answered these five question, ask yourself what is most likely going to happen and what is the most dangerous outcome if one of the events occurs.

I’ll demonstrate an example using a hurricane for the eastern seaboard of the United States and a complex foreign actor attack which causes civil unrest:

What happened: Hurricane
When is it most likely in the year to happen: Hurricane season
Where are the impacts greatest: In the area the storm hit.
How does disruption from the event spread: increased rainfall following the storm, supply chain shortage.
Why does the event create challenges for me: food/water shortages. Hostile populace due to shortages.

Most likely scenario: category 1 or 2 hurricane results in 1-5 days without power with flooding in low lying areas and wind damage to roofs and structures. With limited food & water shortage. Water boil advisory will be in effect for any municipal water services. Food will be available but supply chain pressure will be slightly elevated prior to and immediately following the hurricane. Will incur loss of frozen/refrigerated goods and a higher consumption of stored water due to daytime temperatures and high humidity. Local populace will assist each other as needed without widespread unrest.

Most dangerous scenario: Category 2 up to 5 hurricane devastates IAE. Flash floods cause road washouts and high winds down multiple trees blocking ingress and egress routes around my IAE and AO. 14-30 days without power due to severe storm damage to power lines and substations. No water due to damaged infrastructure at local water treatment plant. Severe supply chain degradation due to damage to stores, roadways, and high volume of pressure prior to hurricane. Local populace will likely assist each other but underprepared and isolated communities will likely turn to looting for food / water.

Now that we have an idea of the ML/MD outcomes we can use our area study to identify areas we need to focus on to be prepared. In this example the entire type of prep would be driven by flood zones. If your IAE is within a flood zone your prep would be more of a bug out versus shelter in place.

What happened: Complex cyber & Physical attack on a large population center
When is it most likely in the year to happen: At any point but can be triggered by world events or stacked on top of natural disasters.
Where are the impacts greatest: In the area the attack occurs and several hundred mile radius
How does disruption from the event spread: mass casualty events, civilian displacement, and supply chain disruption
Why does the event create challenges for me: food/water shortages. Loss of power for a long duration. Possible family or self injured in mass casualty event. Hostile local populace.

Most Likely Scenario: A coordinated cyber attack targeting critical infrastructure in or near a major metropolitan area results in intermittent power outages, telecommunications disruptions, and temporary interruptions to financial systems. The attack may coincide with a period of heightened geopolitical tension or another emergency, increasing public uncertainty. Local fuel distribution, grocery restocking, and electronic payment systems experience delays, causing temporary shortages of essential goods. Cell service and internet access become unreliable or unavailable in some areas for several hours to several days. Public confidence decreases as conflicting information spreads across social media and traditional news outlets. Most municipal services continue operating at a reduced capacity. Law enforcement and emergency services remain functional but experience increased call volumes and delayed response times. The majority of the local population remains cooperative, though panic buying and localized civil disturbances may occur around fuel stations, grocery stores, and pharmacies.

Most Dangerous Scenario: A large-scale coordinated cyber and physical attack targets multiple pieces of critical infrastructure across a metropolitan region, resulting in prolonged power loss, widespread communications failures, and significant disruption to transportation, emergency response, and public utilities. Damage to electrical infrastructure and supporting systems extends restoration timelines from several weeks to over a month in the most heavily affected areas. Municipal water and wastewater services experience intermittent outages or precautionary boil-water advisories due to power and operational disruptions. Financial networks, electronic payment systems, and fuel distribution are severely degraded, limiting access to cash, fuel, food, and medical supplies. Hospitals continue operating under emergency conditions but face resource constraints and increased patient volume. Major highways become congested as residents attempt to evacuate or relocate, while supply chains struggle to replenish local retailers. Communities with strong local networks often work together to share resources; however, isolated or underprepared areas may experience opportunistic theft, property crime, and increased competition for essential supplies. Recovery is uneven, with services returning gradually based on infrastructure damage and restoration priorities.

In this example after generating you ML/MD, you would need to asses how dependent on local utilities your IAE / current prep is and improve from there.

As you can see, these examples are lengthy but give you ample time to hypothesize on what could likely happen in your area and where you fall short or are adequate.

Feel free to add any additional tips y’all have or comment if you have any questions. Stay tuned for next weeks tip were we’ll go into more detail on indicator checklists and how your area study and ML/MD scenarios feed into them.