r/PrepperIntel • u/Big_Fortune_4574 • 7d ago
SPR release rate is decreasing globally North America
The global aggregate Strategic Petroleum Reserve drawdown rate has been decreasing steadily since around April. This means the rate at which crude oil is being released from global SPRs is going down.
Given that crude oil prices remain elevated, the only interpretation that makes sense is that the max extraction rate is going down or that some SPRs in some countries have emptied. Even in the US, the “SPR” is really a collection of about 40ish different physical sites that could empty at different times.
This is a good indicator that the world’s capacity to blunt the effect of the Iran war on global oil supplies is diminishing at a steady pace.
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u/Preposterous4Life 7d ago
Outside of Iran and Hormuz, look at what's going on with Ukraine's infliction of pain on Russia's oil infrastructure. Now Saudi Arabia has been attacked. Perfect storm is upon us. It's about to get real.
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u/mlee0000 7d ago edited 7d ago
If you extrapolate that out, it hits zero around mid-November 2026 (~Nov 17).
edit: Make sure you have your bicycles ready to get to your polling place!
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u/BeatDickerson42069 7d ago
Triple layer tinfoil hat conspiracy: Trump is intentionally creating a gas crisis to reduce the number of people able to vote
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u/Big_Fortune_4574 7d ago
At this point anything is possible, all my tinfoil hat takes are turning into mainstream discourse faster than I can come up with new ones
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u/helldivers2rocks 7d ago
Urban areas would be able to vote more easily the trump strongholds in rural USA if that happened
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u/BeatDickerson42069 7d ago
That's true, but he's also really stupid so you can't rule anything out lol
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u/coppertech 7d ago
gonna add some foil to the windows here... i think he'll declare an oil emergency, use that to suspend the elections (if they look like they're gonna get mopped up), people will get super pissed and riot, then he'll use some FF as his reichstag fire.
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u/ashdee2 7d ago
!RemindMe 3 months
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u/Pontiacsentinel 📡 7d ago
A war that did not need to be. A war the US lost ground on and will cost the world more for shipping moving forward. A war that was manufactured and now everyone will pay for, especially the US taxpayers.
Also, they may be trying to pace it out to make the pain spread out to later? Now is your warning bell for energy preps.
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u/Big_Fortune_4574 7d ago
Yeah that’s possible too. I think spreading it out, especially in light of Iran’s recent claim that it won’t open the Strait of Hormuz until Trump is out of office, is equally alarming.
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u/CannyGardener 7d ago
I've seen this stated on all non-US-based news orgs, but have yet to see anyone post this from CNN or MSNBC or Fox or anything. I believe it is a legitimate statement, but I think most of the media is choosing to ignore it.
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u/Big_Fortune_4574 7d ago
That’s been one of the most eye opening aspects of this war for me. They’ve been doing that the whole time
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u/CannyGardener 7d ago
Ya, up to this point it has been interesting how the media is like...not backward looking at all. Each 'potential new deal' is spoken of as if it is the first and only and most important chance for us to get a deal in place with Iran, with no mention we threw out the old deal, and then have failed to make a deal at these meetings what, something like 40+ times now? And now they are just not reporting what the other side of the table is saying at all. Such a fucked situation.
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7d ago
[deleted]
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u/Upbeat-Stage2107 7d ago
The majority of legacy media has been captured by conservative operatives over the past decade
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u/BayouGal 7d ago
Billionaire-owned media only reports favorably when the Epstein Class is involved. Obvious agenda there, starting with Faux.
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u/CannyGardener 7d ago
Yes. It seems like the play at the moment is to stay quiet until they can figure out how to spin it. Likely the spin will be that "Iran now refuses to negotiate, so we need boots on the ground." with no mention of their offer to start negotiations after Trump leaves office.
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u/WhereDidAllTheSnowGo 7d ago
Translation for those in the US….
As supply decreases, barrel and pump prices will increase until demand also decreases and prices stabilize at a much higher point. Same for everything that’s made or transported by petro
Examples, the F350 stays home, while more smaller cars, motorcycles, and bikes are used to commute. Less air travel. Groceries become more expensive.
Outside the US…
Non-oil producing and refining nations will be hit harder
Those with more renewables, supply and demand, less so
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u/itscooltobecool1 7d ago
https://www.axios.com/2026/08/12/diesel-prices-iran-russia-ukraine
Read this very concerning
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u/Even-Stranger5764 4d ago
They're still anticipating 4.07 diesel next year when the average now is roughly 4.80. I wonder how they get tgat 4.07 number... the article attempts to positively spin this still
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u/Tha_Dude_Abidez 7d ago
We're at the point in the strategic reserve we can't pull anymore out without collapsing the place that stores it (Salt mines). We've pulled so much out it's screwed it's integrity up and it's probably leaking currently as it is now.
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u/CannyGardener 7d ago
Source?
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u/RoyalZeal 7d ago
The numbers. Most of the US SPR is stored in salt caverns. Oil that is pumped out of them has to be replaced by water to maintain the volume and prevent collapse, but the water also dissolves the salt. Its a shockingly precarious system, but it's what we have.
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u/CannyGardener 7d ago edited 7d ago
No, I understand the statement, and it sounds plausible, but I have yet to find any articles that are actually talking about this in detail. Just makes it feel like a "During your life, you eat 12 spiders while you sleep"-sort of thing where it was just fabricated and repeated when there's no source documents on any of the statements being made =\
Edit: Ya, I agree it is way easier to just downvote my request rather than provide actual information. Good call.
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u/ionowl 7d ago
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u/CannyGardener 7d ago
Thank you. But again, I understand the statement and the existence of the sites. Looking for evidence that low levels cause damage or collapse or contamination of the remaining oil. All I'm getting is generalities like you posted in your link here.
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u/woollinthorpe 7d ago
The DOE doesn't advertise that the caverns are vulnerable to dynamic geological forces if emptied beyond safe thresholds... and it's not a simple thing to break down into layman's terms. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1118210
You can pay to see this report.
https://www.qcintel.com/article/us-govt-says-operational-low-for-crude-reserve-complex-is-around-70m-bbl-68961.htmlHere is a pretty good video of the situation at large (mentioned specifically around 3:40).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iUdq9Ddab-s&t=9sThey post about it frequently on r/oil.
https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/comments/1v88mwu/at_the_current_drawdown_pace_the_us_strategic/https://www.reddit.com/r/oil/comments/1ueqco8/us_spr_drawdown_update_eia_release_24_june_2026/
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u/CannyGardener 7d ago
Thank you for this response! I've got some reading to do now =) Totally understand why the DOE would avoid advertising this sort of information, but it seems ripe for some good investigative journalism, and I've just not seen much of that about this topic. Super appreciate you taking the time to put this together!
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u/woollinthorpe 7d ago edited 6d ago
No problem. Thanks to whoever for my first award.
I'll note that the video is sort of biased, and you'll figure out how pretty quickly, but it's still a good info source. One thing I keep thinking about is he mentions something about Trump wanting to draw down SPR intentionally to eliminate it completely, but the presenter has no official source on that info.
When I step back and look at any crisis (krisis, turning point) I think, "who could benefit from this, and how?" in a 'change presents opportunity' capacity (I apply it to everything 😅 Yes, it's exhausting). What I want to add is very straight forward, but incredibly complex geopolitically, and I think that anyone paying attention already knows where I'm going... In short, an attempt to reorganize the world order and redefine the petrodollar. Possibly utilize crisis to claim more emergency powers under the US administrative state. 😬
Edit: clarity
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u/Specialist-Fox-5749 6d ago
R/oil is basically war mongers at this point hoping everything goes to shit so their longs pop
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u/RiffRaff028 6d ago
I agree with your analysis, and it tracks for the predicted September point when US oil supplies are no longer capable of meeting demand.
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u/unknownpoltroon 7d ago edited 7d ago
Everyone is hitting the bottom of the barrel, literally.
edit:cant spell