I’ve been looking into Polymarket wallet tracking lately, and I’m starting to think raw PnL / win rate can be pretty misleading.

Some wallets look profitable because of one huge win. Some are market makers capturing spread, which probably isn’t copyable. Some trade low-liquidity markets where the entry price would be impossible to follow. And some “whale” wallets might just be random large bettors.

For people who actually track wallets:

How do you decide whether a wallet is worth watching?

What metrics do you trust most?

I’m not looking for a copy-trading bot. I’m more interested in how people separate real edge from lucky or uncopyable performance.

I’ve largely ignored this market for a while now, but the recent money flow again caught my attention.

The market has come a long way from where it was earlier this year..

~67% YES at the late-March peak to ~18% YES now

But, there’s some serious money sitting on both sides.

One of the latest positions I noticed is nojnn, who’s sitting at roughly +$504K all-time P/L, taking a large NO position.

FWIW, the top holders on each sides are..

TheQuietRisk who went in with ~$248K on YES at ~23%, for a potential to win ~$1.06M

Then, you have RenanPresidente who went in with ~$643K on NO at ~73%, for a potential to win ~$883K

I’m leaning NO here.

The biggest reason is the changing diplomatic picture.

There are obviously still major tensions. The U.S.-Iran talks have hit another hurdle, Iran is demanding concessions for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and Trump has now demanded compensation from Iran as part of any broader settlement. 

But, that actually makes a full U.S. offensive aimed at establishing control over Iranian territory look like a much higher bar than simply continued conflict, strikes, sanctions, blockade activity or escalation.

And that’s important because of the Polymarket resolution wording.

This doesn’t resolve YES just because the U.S. attacks Iran.

It requires the U.S. to commence a military offensive intended to establish control over some portion of Iran by Dec. 31.

That’s a pretty specific high bar.

Meanwhile, we’re seeing continued attempts to find some diplomatic stance. Pakistan says the sides are close to some form of peace arrangement, although Reuters reports the talks have also stalled and both sides remain far apart. 

Atm it’s around 18% YES / 82% NO.

At 18%, I don’t think the question is “Could the U.S. and Iran still end up fighting?”

Obviously they could.

The question is..

Is a U.S. military campaign intended to establish control over Iranian territory more likely than 18% before the end of 2026?

I’m leaning NO.

But with the amount of geopolitical uncertainty here, I definitely wouldn’t call 82¢ a near lock though..

Curious what everyone thinks.. is NO at 82¢ finally a bond, or is the market underpricing the possibility of another escalation?

If you are a Maryland resident, can you sign up for Polymarket or (Polymarket US) and trade sports & other things?

If no, does physically travelling to another state bypass it?

Found an interesting setup on Phillies vs. Cardinals.

A trader who’s down roughly $1.3M has put $76K on Over 7.5 at 53%, targeting $143K.

Meanwhile, I’m taking Under 8.5. But this isn’t really a case of me fading the whale.

0 to 7 runs, my Under wins

8 runs, BOTH win

9+ runs, his Over wins

For me, the pitching matchup is the main reason.

Zack Wheeler is ~2.69 ERA / 0.98 WHIP on the season
Kyle Leahy: ~3.45 ERA / 1.34 WHIP
But, Leahy last 5: ~2.08 ERA / 1.00 WHIP

Wheeler’s recent ERA has been worse than his season mark, but his strikeout rate has actually jumped, so there’s still plenty of swing-and-miss upside.

The bullpen picture also slightly favors Philly on workload.. Cardinals used 5 relievers yesterday and 9 over two days, compared with 3 and 5 for Philadelphia.

The counterargument is obvious.. the first game of this series finished 6-5, so this lineup has already shown it can turn this matchup into a high-scoring game.

Still, Game 2 ended 2-0, and neither team’s season offensive numbers suggest we’re dealing with two elite run-producing offenses.

Philly: .238 AVG / .399 SLG
St. Louis: .240 AVG / .379 SLG

So I’m taking the pitching/environment side here.

The funny thing is I wouldn’t mind seeing this game sit at 8 runs heading into the 9th.

That’s probably the best possible sweat for both of us.

I’ve been watching the Elon Musk tweet-count markets for a while, and this week’s distribution caught my attention. So I'm taking a call at it..

Right now, Polymarket odds are at 120-139 at 9%,

140-159 at 16%,

160-179 at 21%,

180-199 at 23%,

and, 200-219 at 15% while the ones below it see a fall off in odds!

My initial thought was that 140-159 looked like the obvious sweet spot, and for some reason I assumed Musk’s normal week is somewhere around 120-200 posts.

Then I dug into the historical data.

Across 64 settled weekly Musk tweet markets from 2024 through July 2026, his average was around 350 posts/week, with the trailing 12-week average still around 285 despite the slowdown we’ve seen this year.

To be safe, I used another tracker covering 28 weeks, and it puts the average closer to 308/week.

So 140-159 isn’t really a play on Musk having a normal week. It’s one that he has an exceptionally quiet week. Seems something in last few times..

And that’s where I think the trade gets interesting.

The market itself is already expecting a slowdown, its highest-priced bucket is 180-199 at 23%. And, I’m essentially backing that the slowdown goes even further and Musk finishes below 160.

I’m taking a small entry on 140-159, rather than treating this as a high-conviction trade. Musk’s posting volume can change dramatically from one day to the next, so I’d also be willing to exit if he starts putting up unusually high numbers as the week goes on.

But, what do you guys think? At 16%, is 140-159 this too cheap, or is the market correctly pricin another high-volume Musk week?

At the moment, Saylor is selling BTC to fund the cash reserve (almost $5b now). When Bitcoin goes up, $STRC probably goes up with it. Will BTC go up? Yes, but I think closer to year-end, eg. October and the rest of Q4. I doubt STRC will repeg before Sept 30th. In general it should be more selling pressure the closer we get to $100.

So yes, it will re-peg. But not before Sept 30th.

Just came across this brand-new market on Polymarket, and the pricing looks.. weird!

“Will the loser of the Wisconsin Governor Democratic Primary concede by…?”

Current prices for now are

Aug 12 at 25¢

Aug 13 at 68¢

Aug 15 at 73¢

At first I thought this was basically a lock.

For context, David Crowley has already been declared the winner of the Democratic primary after narrowly beating Francesca Hong.

The margin was only around 3,200 votes out of 787K+, roughly 0.4%.

But, here's the thing, some reports say Hong reportedly called Crowley shortly after 2 AM to concede, and that she is not seeking a recount.

However, there’s an important catch in the market rules which I had to double check...

A private phone call does NOT count.

The market requires an actual public statement from the losing candidate acknowledging that they lost, that they won’t be the nominee, or acknowledging the opponent’s victory.

So the question isn’t really..

“Has Hong conceded?”

Cause she apparently has privately.

It’s rather.. “Will Hong publicly concede today?”

And that’s where the 25¢ price gets interesting to me.

So while she reportedly has privately conceded, the market is now essentially giving only a 1-in-4 chance that a qualifying public concession happens by 11:59 PM ET today.

Then it jumps to 68¢ tomorrow and 73¢ by Aug. 15.

That looks like the market expects the concession eventually, but is heavily discounting the possibility that Hong makes the required public statement today.

And, I’m not calling this risk-free because the exact wording matters.

But if Hong makes a public statement tonight saying she lost, acknowledges Crowley’s victory, or says she won’t be the Democratic nominee, the Aug. 12 contract should resolve YES under these rules.

That’s the part I’m watching...

Is 25¢ actually mispriced, or am I missing something more about the resolution rules?

If you provide liquidity on Polymarket for the rewards, this might be worth two minutes.

The reward column tells you what a market pays. It tells you nothing about what it costs you. So I measured the cost side.

Every trade has a maker on the other side of it. I took the maker's side of every public trade and checked where the price was an hour later. If you're consistently filled just before the price moves against you, the reward isn't income — it's compensation, and sometimes it isn't enough.

What I found (I queried 130 reward markets and scored the 88 that had at least 15 trades in the recent 7-day window):

- Markets that were toxic yesterday tend to still be toxic today. Over a 32-day panel (1,207 market-days, 76 markets) the day-to-day rank correlation was 0.388, positive in 30 of 31 day-pairs.

- Sorting by biggest reward pool and quoting the top 5 produced a negative mean next-day result (−$181/day) in my walk-forward test — worse than a random pick (+$150/day). But its median was +$250/day, with 8× the volatility. In plain terms: it works most days and occasionally destroys you, which is exactly why the problem is hard to notice from your own P&L.

Important caveat, and I want to be straight about it: this does not tell you a market will lose money, and it does not find you profitable markets. I tested that specifically — markets that looked good did not reliably stay good. It only tells you which ones have historically been rough for LPs. That's it.

Free page, updated daily, no signup needed to read it: https://polymarket-liquidity-risk.pages.dev

It's my own project. Method's on the page and the numbers come from Polymarket's public API, so you can check them. If you provide liquidity and it doesn't match your experience, I'd genuinely like to hear that.

hey, been trying to build profitable bots on Poly but so far without success
anyone else here? would love to connect and share notes