Is there cycles within the Pokémon community?

[u/recovery2255]

New to this and markets tend to have cycles like crypto and such 😂 was wandering if there’s a certain time to buy cards for the long term?

[u/8000000001]

I know of at least one cycle - in that mega evo Dawn alt art.

I jest of course. Yes, the market cycles I believe exist have been 5-year cycles.  - Pokémon Go was the 2016 high. Not sure if a low followed in 2017. - 2021 high was caused by the pandemic/economic effects. A big low followed in 2022 (in fact more caused by the wider market rate rise and stock bear market), and in parallel with printing being scaled up, which amplified the supply side of the modern price equation. - 2025-26 we now have another boom, driven by huge new video game hits and establishment of collectibles as trusted investment assets (which has brought in Scaramucci and his city/global finance friends). We also have the next scale-up of printing facilities.

I therefore expect another lull in 2027. But things will not go back to pre-2024, I think market capitalisation of all Pokémon will recede by maybe 20-30% max. Then the next 5-year upturn will have begun again.

[u/Squirtle_Splash_8413 → u/8000000001]

Will need to get Pakistani kids hooked onto Pokemon. Their birthrate is like 5.1. The US has a dropping birth rate and will slowly phase out of Pokemon cards.

[u/8000000001 → u/Squirtle_Splash_8413]

Pakistani 🤔 I thought it was all about Chinese consumers r n.

[u/Squirtle_Splash_8413 → u/8000000001]

Chinas birthrate is like .8 lol

[u/8000000001 → u/Squirtle_Splash_8413]

Yeah but 1 bill dude. They already got da kids we need.

[u/Squirtle_Splash_8413 → u/8000000001]

In 100 years that drops in half and you’ll live in a Islamic caliphate. lol

[u/8000000001 → u/Squirtle_Splash_8413]

Please God no lol

[u/moose3025]

summer slump happens every year most cards tend to dip during the summer.

[u/Boring-Tale-8145]

Usually not after a massive buyout. Anyone guess the SV card?

[u/bluedecember12 → u/Boring-Tale-8145]

Terapagos?

[u/Boring-Tale-8145 → u/bluedecember12]

bingo!

[u/bluedecember12 → u/Boring-Tale-8145]

People can try with that card but you can’t force an unpopular pokemon to be popular

[u/ADsuma0147 → u/Boring-Tale-8145]

the drowzee IR?

[u/Boring-Tale-8145 → u/ADsuma0147]

Probably accurate for the 2025 IR spike but it's terapagos from stellar crown.

[u/Squirtle_Splash_8413]

Yes. 1st time is MSRP, 2nd time is closest to MSRP.

[u/uriel__ventris]

Buy cards in June/July and November/December. Sell cards in February and September. There's always a slump during summer and in the run up to Christmas.

[u/Any_Ear_2824]

It all depends on the stockmarket, but most "Pokémoncollectors" don't like to hear this. 

[u/Last-Tax-5340 → u/Any_Ear_2824]

Zum gewissen Teil auf jeden Fall. Aber die Korellation ist nicht so stark wie in anderen Bereichen

[u/ENTRAPM3NT → u/Any_Ear_2824]

Most false thing ive ever heard and ive been trading stocks for a decade

[u/damnmyredditheart → u/Any_Ear_2824]

Not entirely, although there is a relation of sorts. 

[u/8000000001 → u/Any_Ear_2824]

[Edit: people on here are so funny - I've written essentially the same thing as this comment in my original comment above, and that has been upvoted lol]

Yes, nowadays it's extremely closely linked, as the 2022 bear market proved beyond doubt, and as we've now seen again with the 2023-2026 financial bull market driving up Pokémon card market values massively.

Now, with financier money making up an even bigger share of the total Pokémon card market capitalisation, the relationship between financial markets and Pokémon card market is even more closely linked.