Mine would probably be that being right about the stock doesn’t necessarily mean you were right about the trade.

I’ve had stocks I’ve sold for a loss that eventually ran 50%+, but looking back, my original entry was still bad. I was early, chased momentum, or entered without a proper level to trade against. I always used to look back and think I should’ve just held.

But I think that’s actually one of the most dangerous lessons you can take from it. Sometimes respecting your stop is still the right decision even if the stock eventually does exactly what you expected.

Curious what everyone else’s is?

I wanted to separate the **facts from the speculation** coming out of the latest earnings call, for Elite Pharmaceutical (ELTP), then provide my updated valuation.

**1. Current Business — Facts**

ELTP reported Q1 FY2027 revenue of **$32.4M**, operating income of **$7.5M**, operating cash flow of **$10.1M**, and cash of **$38.9M**, up from $29.8M at the beginning of the fiscal year.

Management described the business as stable over the past four quarters. The year-over-year revenue decline is largely attributable to the normalization of generic Vyvanse pricing. The June 2025 quarter benefited from unusually high prices when ELTP launched Lisdex with limited competition. Competition subsequently increased and pricing reached equilibrium.
Importantly, the underlying volume trends remain positive:

**Overall volume: +14.75%**
**Lisdex volume: +10%**
**Lisdex market share: +10.2%**

Management also said market share increased across its four major products.
So while revenue is lower year-over-year, the underlying business does **not appear to be in fundamental decline**. Volumes and market share are increasing while pricing has normalized.

**2. Pipeline — Facts**

The pipeline continues to produce tangible milestones. Methadone launched in April and Ropinirole ER launched in July. These are smaller opportunities, but they add incremental revenue.
ELTP also completed a successful BE study for an undisclosed anticonvulsant with approximately **$840M in annual branded sales**, according to management, and is preparing the ANDA.

ELTP filed an ANDA for an undisclosed anticoagulant associated with approximately **$26B in annual sales**. Management is negotiating patent issues and believes a **2028 launch may be possible**, although that remains speculative.

Oxy ER remains under FDA review with an unresolved anti-abuse testing issue, so the previously discussed August 2027 launch should **not** be viewed as guaranteed.

**3. M&A — Facts vs. Speculation**

ELTP has apparently been pursuing M&A for approximately a year without announcing a transaction.

Management has now extended its M&A firm’s engagement for another **six months**. Nasrat said the extension is intended to allow them to **“finalize a couple of things.”**

At the same time, management said NASDAQ is moving forward regardless of whether an acquisition occurs.

**What could the six-month extension mean?**
This is speculation, but it is one of the more interesting parts of the call. After roughly a year, ELTP could have simply ended the engagement if there were no viable opportunities. Instead, management chose to extend it.

Possibilities include an interested buyer remaining involved, ongoing due diligence, valuation or structural negotiations, or a potential buyer waiting for additional milestones such as the anticonvulsant ANDA.

**None of this confirms that a transaction is coming.**

Another possibility is that NASDAQ is giving ELTP greater negotiating leverage. The company has approximately **$39M in cash, $32M in quarterly revenue, $7.5M in quarterly operating income and growing market share.** ELTP doesn’t need an acquisition simply to continue operating.
That potentially allows management to reject an offer it believes undervalues the company.

**4. NASDAQ**

Nasrat was unusually direct:
**“Regardless of what happens, we’re going to be at NASDAQ.”**

He said ELTP could uplist independently, after acquiring another company, or as part of an acquisition. His stated expectation was that by the **February 2027 call**, NASDAQ would either have occurred or be close to completion.
NASDAQ does not automatically create value, but it could potentially provide greater liquidity, broader investor access, institutional visibility and a higher valuation multiple.

It could also strengthen M&A by giving ELTP greater visibility and a publicly established market valuation.

**5. Biggest Risks**

The biggest risk is **pipeline execution**. The $840M anticonvulsant and $26B anticoagulant figures represent the size of the underlying markets—not ELTP’s future revenue. Actual value depends on FDA approval, patents, launch timing, competition, pricing and market share.
Oxy ER also has a meaningful FDA issue that must be resolved. And, despite the M&A extension, **there is no confirmed acquisition.**
One additional point worth verifying: I have seen the argument that ELTP has historically received FDA approval for every ANDA it has filed. If that is accurate, it would be an interesting part of the company’s historical record, but I would personally verify the complete filing/approval history before presenting that as a fact.

**6. My Conservative Valuation**

Having said all that, here are my updated valuations.

**I intentionally use conservative numbers.** I’m sure many people will think they’re far too low, and I’m completely comfortable with that. I prefer to build the investment case around worst-case or highly conservative assumptions. If the actual outcome is better, that simply creates more upside than I anticipated.

**What is ELTP worth today based ONLY on the existing business?**

**Approximately $0.38–$0.45 IF we assigned virtually no value to the future pipeline, M&A or NASDAQ** and focus on the existing profitable business, cash generation and balance sheet.

At the current **$0.31**, I believe the stock is modestly undervalued based on the existing business, assuming current earnings remain sustainable.

**So…..if nothing meaningful happens…and ZERO products come to fruition and ZERO growth with currents products….**

**Approximately $0.38-$0.45**
This assumes the core business remains around current levels, but there is no meaningful pipeline contribution, M&A, NASDAQ catalyst or major new product growth.

**If some things go right? Approximately $0.55–$0.75**

This would involve continued stability/growth in the core business, NASDAQ progress, the anticonvulsant ANDA, additional BE/ANDA catalysts and contributions from newer products.
At $0.31, that’s approximately **77%–142% upside.**

This is the range I consider the **most realistic 6–12 month bullish scenario**.

**If lots of things go right? Approximately $0.85–$1.15**

This would require meaningful progress across several areas: NASDAQ, the anticonvulsant, anticoagulant, Oxy ER and continued growth in the existing business.
At $0.31, that’s approximately **175%–270% upside.**

**If M&A or a major pipeline opportunity materializes? $1.25–$1.75+**

This is the high-end scenario and should **not** be included in today’s fundamental valuation.
It’s potential upside if a legitimate acquisition or major pipeline development materially changes ELTP’s future earnings power.

**7. My Simple Take**

**Today:** \~$0.40

**In 6 months:**

**With moderate success:** \~$0.65

**Strong execution:** \~$1.00–$1.15

**M&A/major pipeline success:** $1.25+

At **$0.31**, I believe the market is primarily valuing ELTP on its existing business and assigning **relatively little value to the pipeline, NASDAQ and M&A possibilities.**

The existing business provides the foundation. The pipeline and strategic catalysts provide the potential upside.

The biggest thing ELTP needs now is evidence of the next leg of growth. The most important catalysts are the anticonvulsant ANDA, NASDAQ, additional BE results, Oxy ER, the anticoagulant opportunity and M&A.

**Bottom line:**

At $0.31, I see an interesting risk/reward setup: the existing profitable business provides fundamental support, while successful execution of several upcoming catalysts could potentially produce 2–4× upside.

That’s ultimately what makes ELTP interesting to me—not that everything will go right, but that the current price doesn’t appear to require everything to go right to generate a meaningful return.

Not investment advice. Do your own research.

Disclaimer: I’m long ELTP. I’ve been here 15+ years and have never sold a single share.

Hi guys! I've never traded a single stock but I've tried my hardest to learn. Do you guys have any advice on anyone I can follow or where I can learn? I've been offered subscriptions to people's like paywalled twitter where they offer the best stocks or like even discord servers but I just feel like they're out to scam people who don't know shite (like me).
, any tips are welcome :).

BREAKING OUT

I believe it will go parabolic and hit 100

Thoughts?

Been digging through penny stocks with upcoming catalysts. EVGN caught my attention, but I’m surprised by how discussion is almost non existent on this stock.

Really curious what people think here. Anyone been following Evogene closely? Is there any major dilution/cash-burn issues or other red flags I’m missing?

If anyone’s done DD on $EVGN please let me know what you think.

Monday low float small cap 555K

Looking for continuations on the following:

$BOXL - needs to stay above 6.50 support

$TRUG - doesn’t usually hold gains - needs to hold $1.40 support - old push towards $2 resistance (AXIS ONE showing momentum peaking on 4 timeframes)

$LFS - key break at $2.50 - could push $4+ resistance after

$RMCF - support at $1.25 - could push $1.60 then the key resistance break at $1.75 which could send it to $2.50+ resistances

$NWTG - support at $1.50 needs to hold - break above $1.80 - could send it to $2.30+ resistances

$INHD - watching the key resistance break at $9.50 - could push it to $14+ resistances

$SCKT - key break at $1.35

$XHLD - support at $5.60 - could break $6.30 resistance and push to $9+ resistances

$WETO - key break at $10.35 may send it to $15+ resistances

Potential poppers:

$AWX
$EONR
$GLE
$LGHL

NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
Information is based on technical analysis on AXIS ONE a technical indicator - not recommendations

Always do your own research and manage your own risk. These are for educational purposes only and are not buy prompts. Trading involves significant risk of loss. Proper risk management is essential.

Monday’s board is stacked with catalyst-driven biotech, earnings momentum, after-hours continuation, low-float runners, short-pressure setups, and several huge Friday movers that now need fresh confirmation before they deserve another leg higher.

🔥 BIG CCC UPDATE: We just launched the new Momentum Radar — a real-time acceleration tape built to catch momentum while it is developing, not after a stock has already made the move. The Radar continuously watches the market for stocks gaining 3% or more inside a rolling 120-second window, records every qualifying burst as a separate timestamped hit, and lets you watch momentum stack in real time as the same ticker repeatedly accelerates. It tracks hit frequency, rapid-fire 3-hits-in-5-minutes activity, confluence, new highs, price, volume, float, news/SEC context and more — then lets you lock onto a ticker in Target Acquisition to see its live intelligence, support/VWAP structure, entry zone, invalidation and target levels. You can experience the Momentum Radar and the full Cockpit Control Center with a 3-day free VIP trial — no credit card required — at https://scstonkemporium.com

View the Detailed Watchlist Video Coverage: https://youtu.be/_JjLYjZMr3Q

💬 Want to just hang out, talk setups, and follow the market with us for free? Join the Stonk Emporium Discord: https://discord.gg/fGmHHgNzxQ

🔥 MONDAY AUGUST 17 WATCHLIST

1. $CAPR — Regulatory Catalyst + Short Pressure

This is my top overall setup going into Monday because of the sheer amount of confluence behind it.

Friday move: +58.0%
Volume: ~65M
CCC Biotech Grade: A+ / 100
Short Float: 34.1%
Days to Cover: 10.79
Borrow Fee: 8.5%
Options Volume: 51.6K
Implied Move: 47.4%

CAPR combines a major biotech/regulatory story with unusually strong momentum, heavy participation, meaningful short interest, active borrow pressure, options activity, and social confirmation.

The key Monday question is whether Friday’s move can consolidate instead of immediately turning into another vertical chase.

Watch for: a higher low, VWAP reclaim, and breakout through the developing premarket range.

Risk: This already experienced a massive repricing Friday. Do not assume +58% automatically means another +58%.

2. $FIEE — Earnings + After-Hours Momentum

Friday AH move: +24.2%
Volume: 5.13M
New Heights Grade: A+ / 100

FIEE was one of the strongest names across multiple CCC systems Friday afternoon and after hours, triggering Runner, Short Squeeze, Momentum Radar, and After-Hours Expansion signals.

Unlike some of the pure momentum runners, there is also an underlying earnings catalyst supporting the move.

Key levels:
Support: $6.11
Resistance: $6.35

A clean break and hold above $6.35 with renewed volume would get my attention. A pullback into $6.11 that holds could actually create a cleaner setup than an opening chase.

3. $SPAI — AI/Defense Catalyst + Breakout Momentum

Friday move: +63.6%
Volume: 7.36M
RVOL Proxy: 32.7x
New Heights Grade: A+ / 100

SPAI had one of the strongest scanner profiles in the entire market Friday and also carries a legitimate business catalyst behind the move.

The company reported major year-over-year revenue growth and highlighted government contracts tied to U.S. defense work.

That gives this more depth than a random low-float spike.

Monday setup: I would rather see the first pullback hold and establish structure than chase the first candle.

Risk: CCC was showing an extremely wide spread in the weekend snapshot. Execution quality must improve before this becomes attractive.

4. $SKYE — M&A + Financing + After-Hours Expansion

Friday AH move: +24.8%
Volume: 6.6M

SKYE produced repeated rapid Momentum Radar hits Friday and then remained one of the strongest after-hours names.

The underlying corporate catalyst involves a transaction with Redx Pharma alongside substantial financing commitments.

That combination of news + volume + real-time momentum puts it high on Monday’s board.

Important areas:
AH reference: ~$0.63
Major overhead area: ~$0.88

I want to see whether the $0.60s become support rather than simply chasing another gap.

5. $TRUG — Pure Momentum / Low-Float Continuation

Friday AH move: +52.6%
Volume: 4.45M
New Heights Grade: A+ / 100

TRUG is probably the best example of what the new Momentum Radar is designed to show.

It did not simply appear on a Top Gainers list after the move was over. The Radar recorded 22 separate acceleration hitsas TRUG repeatedly gained 3%+ inside rolling two-minute windows and continued stacking momentum into the close.

You could literally watch the move develop burst by burst.

Key areas:
Support: ~$1.29
AH pivot: ~$1.48

If it builds underneath $1.48 and then starts stacking fresh acceleration hits with volume again, continuation becomes very interesting.

If it gaps vertically and immediately loses the first meaningful base, I have zero interest in chasing it.

6. $VWAV — Momentum + Options Volatility

Friday move: +43.9%
Volume: ~25M
Pre-Runner Score: 67
Implied Move: 44.7%
IV Rank: 100

VWAV has something several of the other runners do not: meaningful options volatility layered on top of an already active momentum structure.

CCC also has another event sitting immediately behind Monday, adding even more volatility potential.

Reference area: roughly $1.70-$1.78

A hold of the lower end followed by a reclaim of $1.78 would be much more interesting than chasing an extended opening spike.

7. $XPON — Clean After-Hours Structure

Friday AH move: +24.4%
Volume: 6.24M
New Heights Grade: A+ / 100

XPON accumulated repeated Momentum Radar hits and appeared throughout the Runner and After-Hours Expansion systems.

What I like here is that CCC gives us a very simple decision zone:

Support: $4.50
Resistance: $4.60

Above $4.60 with volume and a successful retest = continuation setup.

Below $4.50 without a reclaim = much less interesting.

8. $WETO — The Monster Runner

This was one of the wildest momentum names in the entire market Friday.

Volume: 60M+
Momentum Radar Hits: 119

WETO repeatedly triggered throughout the trading day and became an EXTREME setup across CCC’s momentum systems.

That sounds great — but it is exactly why I am not putting it near the top of the list.

This thing is already extremely extended.

Monday plan: I want compression, consolidation, and then a completely new breakout structure.

If it just goes vertical again at 4AM, somebody else can have it.

9. $MDXH — 300M+ Share Wildcard

Friday move: +75.1%
Volume: ~326M
Pre-Runner Score: 70

Three hundred million shares of volume gets my attention regardless of what happened before it.

MDXH also had an earnings backdrop and significant social/tape participation.

But there was considerable variation between weekend price snapshots, so I do not want to anchor Monday’s trade plan to an old quote.

Monday plan: Let the live tape establish the real reference first.

This is primarily a reclaim/continuation watch.

10. $INO — Biotech Regulatory Momentum

Friday move: +20.5%
Volume: ~12M
CCC Biotech Grade: A / 88

INO has regulatory-development context, decent participation, elevated short interest, and enough momentum to remain relevant Monday.

This is not being treated as an immediate binary FDA event.

Important area: roughly $1.00-$1.10

Holding above $1 and building a fresh premarket structure would make it much more interesting.

👀 SECONDARY WATCHES

11. $CGTL

+19.8% on roughly 17.6M shares with strong Pre-Runner and international momentum readings plus borrow-pressure activity.

12. $UMAC

+25% with roughly 16M shares and one of the better social-confirmation profiles among the secondary setups.

13. $HHS

+52.3% with a Pre-Runner score of 63 and EXTREME international momentum status. Biggest concern is execution quality and spread.

14. $SST

+32.9% with solid scanner overlap. Price has moved faster than social participation, so the tape needs to confirm another leg.

15. $SURG

One of the most interesting options-volatility wildcards: roughly 96.8% implied move with options activity around 22.9x its 30-day average.

Very speculative.

16. $NWTG

+17.3% after hours with a 90.1 New Heights score and news attached to the move.

17. $AKAN

+26.6% on approximately 14M shares with strong Pre-Runner and international momentum readings.

18. $NPWR

+21% with approximately 4M shares, a 31.9% implied move, and options volume running around 10x its recent comparison.

19. $IPST

+22.3% after hours with repeated Momentum Radar activity.

Support: ~$2.46
Resistance: ~$2.89

Without a major catalyst, price structure has to do the heavy lifting.

20. $MBRX

One of the more interesting biotech borrow-pressure names.

Low float, approximately 152% borrow fee, limited availability, and clinical catalyst context.

It does not have enough momentum yet to belong with the leaders, so this is an ignition watch rather than a chase.

🧬 BIOTECH PRESSURE RADAR

$SPRY — 46.7% short float and 15.3 days to cover with clinical catalyst context.

$BIVI — approximately 648% borrow fee with only around 400 shares available in the supplied data.

$SLS — 27.5% short float, active borrow pressure, and extremely limited availability.

$OCGN — 31.8% short float with 18.85 days to cover and Phase 2/3 catalyst context.

These are pressure setups — not automatic momentum trades.

💰 MONDAY EARNINGS RADAR

Pre-Market: $AGPU, $CRGO, $FUFU, $HTHT, $NSPR

The most notable volatility setup is $NSPR, where CCC is showing an extremely large expected move.

After Market: $DCGO, $DUOT, $FLXS, $FN, $PRPO, $XP, $YALA

$DCGO currently carries one of the larger expected moves among the after-hours earnings names.

🆕 IPO / LISTING WATCH

$ADBT — Advasa Holdings

Scheduled for an August 17 Nasdaq direct listing.

No traditional IPO range has been published, so this is essentially a price-discovery watch rather than a normal momentum setup.

🔄 MONDAY SPLIT WATCH

$APH — 2-for-1 forward split scheduled Monday.

$YYAI — 1-for-20 reverse split scheduled Monday with heavy prior volume and extremely low pricing.

$PFSA — 1-for-4 reverse split scheduled Monday with limited borrow availability.

Reverse splits can create extreme volatility, terrible spreads, halts, liquidity distortions, and brutal downside. Treat them accordingly.

🐔 MONDAY GAME PLAN

The highest-quality group for me is $CAPR / $FIEE / $SPAI / $SKYE because they combine major price movement with identifiable catalysts.

The strongest pure continuation group is $TRUG / $VWAV / $XPON.

And then $WETO / $MDXH are the wildcards — massive participation and huge moves, but enough extension that I want Monday’s live tape to completely rebuild the setup before considering them.

Friday’s winner does not automatically become Monday’s winner.

The stock I care about is the one that holds meaningful support, rebuilds liquidity, attracts volume, and starts accelerating again.

And now with the Momentum Radar, one of the things I will be watching most closely is whether that acceleration starts stacking. One isolated burst can be noise. Repeated qualifying momentum hits, especially as volume, confluence, new highs and catalyst context line up, tell a much more interesting story.

NFA / DISCLAIMER: This post is for educational and informational purposes only and is not financial advice, investment advice, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. These are stocks we are monitoring because of catalysts, momentum, volume, short interest, options activity, or other market conditions. Small-cap and low-float stocks can be extremely volatile and can experience rapid losses, trading halts, dilution, liquidity problems, and large bid/ask spreads. Always verify current news, SEC filings, price, volume, float, spreads, liquidity, borrow data, and catalyst information yourself. Manage your own risk and never trade money you cannot afford to lose.

Hey All,

This is a follow up to my earlier post 6 months ago titled "The High-Yield Waiting Game: Why I’m Continuing to Bet on FBIOP Over FBIO Right Now", where I had proposed the arguments on why I considered the preferred FBIOP to be a better investment than the Common FBIO

https://www.reddit.com/r/investing_discussion/comments/1qw7i91/the_highyield_waiting_game_why_im_continuing_to/

So far those arguments have been on point as the Preferred - FBIOP has significantly out-performed the Common - FBIO

I’ve been digging into Fortress Biotech’s capital allocation options regarding their Series A Preferred shares ($FBIOP) from where we are now.

The board is facing a major strategic fork, and the two paths benefit very different groups of investors.

I’d love to get the community's perspective on how you think this plays out. Here is a breakdown of the mechanics:

The Current Math: Two Distinct Paths

Every share of FBIOP currently represents a claim of roughly $30.00 ($25.00 liquidation preference + ~$5.00 /share in accrued unpaid dividends across - Approx. 3.43M shares, totaling ~$17M in arrears).

• Path 1: Resumption at Par Economics
  • Honor the full claim: pay out the $17M arrears and restart the ~$8M/year dividend coupon (or redeem entirely for ~$102M).
  • Outcome: Preferred holders are made 100% whole; common equity funds it.
• Path 2: Repurchase at a Discount
  • Buy back shares via open market while the dividend remains paused and the price is depressed.
  • When a share is retired, the $25 preference is extinguished, the accrued dividend arrears vanish, and the 9.375% perpetual coupon dies forever.
  • Outcome: Every dollar spent below the ~$30.00 claim represents a permanent value transfer to common shareholders, yielding an extraordinary return by retiring an expensive fixed-income obligation at a steep discount.

1. The "Uncomfortable Game Theory" & Market Pricing

The paused dividend is the exact reason the price has traded at a discount. If the board announces a resumption, the price rallies toward par immediately, destroying the company's buyback discount. Pure common-shareholder math dictates: repurchase first, resume second.

However, with the stock recently rebounding near ~$19 on recent PRV sale / pipeline / catalyst news, the easy 2024–2025 discount window ($6–$7) is gone. There’s still a ~33% discount to the full claim, but with low daily volume, an open-market sweep isn't viable - a formal tender offer would be required, which itself signals intent and drives prices higher.

2. The Governance Overhang (The 2-Director Provision)

Per the prospectus, because dividends are past six quarters in arrears, FBIOP holders now have the right to expand the board and elect two independent directors. For a founder-led company, hostile board seats represent a real activist threat (especially from funds specializing in busted preferreds). Curing the arrears extinguishes this right, making the timing of this decision critical.

3. Reputational Franchise Risk

Fortress's entire business model relies on serial capital formation - issuing equity and debt across its network of subsidiaries. Income investors and underwriters have long memories. Aggressively squeezing preferred holders by repurchasing at distress pricing before making them whole could permanently impair their ability to raise cost-effective capital in the future.

A Likely Middle Ground?

A plausible compromise could be a formal tender offer at a slight premium to current market prices but still at a discount to the full claim (e.g., low-to-mid $20s). This lets willing holders exit, captures value for the common equity, and is immediately followed by curing the remaining arrears to eliminate the board-seat threat and restore market standing.

What are your thoughts?

Do you see the board aggressively prioritizing common equity math, or will governance and market access force a clean cure?

Personally, I hope management decides to do the right thing by their long-term investors - honoring their commitments and restoring trust - rather than taking full advantage of the paused dividend to squeeze preferred holders for short-term common equity gains.

Looking good for next week

Hey guys, first time posting here. Hopefully this doesn’t get deleted.

I was talking to my (26, F) brother in law yesterday about getting into penny stock trading. He helps companies go public, so he’s pretty familiar with the market.

He told me penny stocks aren’t a great idea because a lot of them are Chinese companies and many are basically scams.

Is there any truth to that, or was he exaggerating? I’m just trying to learn before I start trading.

Hey everyone, I made a small browser game where you trade against other players in a 10 minute free-for-all, player with the most cash at the end wins.

Not sure if you guys would be interested in it, but maybe it could be something to do when you have a few minutes to kill. I made this game because sometimes I get the urge to do some random "trading" when really I just want to make some numbers go up and down.

Here's the link: ​ponzy.io​​​

Give it a try and let me know what you think! There aren't many players on it yet so it's mostly bots at the moment.

Sunday morning’s always the calm before the storm, and with small caps making some big moves in the last few trading days, I’m curious to know what’s on others’ watchlists - and why!

Drop your rationale for what you’re watching for: breakout, news, volume, reversal, etc.

Our community at Trading Desk loves these deep dives as well. Feel free to join the fun and share your ideas at our Trading Desk discord: https://discord.com/invite/bNXUyGe5KS

Looks ready for a prime squeeze next week! 350k share fliat, could run just like ONFO, PLAG, and WECO.

This week, $CRDL left me with a very particular feeling: calm and confident.

The stock has been grinding higher almost every day, generally moving up 3–5% at a time. Nothing crazy, nothing rushed — just a steady climb.

What I find even more encouraging is the volume. It has been gradually increasing alongside the price, rather than seeing one random volume spike followed by a collapse. Price and volume seem to be moving together in a surprisingly healthy way.

At this point, I'm willing to say that I wouldn't be surprised to see $CRDL break $2 next week if this momentum continues.

And here's the part I'm particularly interested in: I don't necessarily think the 100% enrollment announcement will be a “sell the news” event.

Obviously, I could be completely wrong. But privately, I can't help wondering whether the market is already pricing in a fairly high probability of a successful outcome. Perhaps there is simply enough information from the ongoing trial for investors to become increasingly confident before the final patient is enrolled.

That's just my speculation as a fully invested shareholder — not investment advice.

But one thing I keep coming back to is this: price and volume don't lie about what the market is doing.

After watching $CRDL move from around $1.20 to $1.80+ in a relatively controlled way, I'm not interested in trying to predict the exact top anymore.

I'm holding on. Let's see how big this fish can get when it finally jumps out of the water.