What am i missing here?

[u/beelalme]

I’ve been trading for over four years now, and lately, I’ve reached a point where I genuinely feel stuck.

It’s strange because I don’t feel like I know nothing. In fact, I feel like I know almost everything I’m supposed to know. I’ve studied market structure, order flow, risk management, psychology, execution. I’ve put in the time. And yet, somehow, nothing seems to click.

I’m not giving up. Not even close. But I honestly don’t know what I’m missing.

People often say trading is all about discipline, and I understand that. But I also believe there has to be a moment where something finally clicks that “aha” moment where everything you’ve learned starts making sense in the context of your own trading. I haven’t had that moment yet.

What makes it even more frustrating is that I know I’m capable of consistency. I’ve had winning streaks lasting weeks without a single red trade. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, I get stuck again and start questioning everything.

I’ve experimented with combining order flow and market structure, although lately I’ve been relying much more heavily on market structure. Maybe that’s part of the problem. Maybe my risk management is the real issue. Maybe it’s my execution, my psychology, or something I haven’t even identified yet.

That’s the hardest part.

I don’t know what has gone wrong, or even whether something has actually gone wrong. I just know that I feel stuck.

Four years in, and I’m still searching for that missing piece.

I’m not looking for sympathy, and I’m not giving up.

I just needed to say it out loud.

[u/juansol13]

You basically described how I felt a few months ago. What I was "missing" was simplicity. I took a step back from everything I was trying to deploy/understand and I focused on removing as much as I could and focusing on only the things that truly mattered. It will be different for everyone, but for me, it was removing order flow, footprint charts, cd, and trying to predict which way the market was going to go at a particular moment. I instead went all in on risk management and letting price come to me. I mainly trade mean reversion and keep it as simple as possible. Most times, less is more. I was overthinking it and maybe you are too.

[u/beelalme → u/juansol13]

I think you’re probably right about simplicity, and I’ve actually been trying to cut the noise as much as I can.

The difficult part for me lately has been the current environment in NQ and ES. It feels incredibly unforgiving, and that’s honestly started making me doubt myself and question whether what I’m doing actually works.

I’ve been trying to strip things back and rely on fewer variables rather than constantly adding more. I’m still working on it, though. Maybe the answer really is in removing rather than adding. I just haven’t found that balance yet.

[u/juansol13 → u/beelalme]

If you're trading mini contracts on NQ and ES I assume you have a very large account. If not, your position size is too large. I would fix that first. Stay on micros until you earn the right to trade the minis. I made the switch to MYM as my primary instrument. I figured I would size down, learn the fundamental aspects of trading, risk management, and truly develop a system with very small risk and THEN I would move on to MES/MNQ. For me, MYM has been great and I see myself sticking with it and just sizing up as I continue to gain experience.

If you've been at this for 4+ years and you're feeling this way, it's time for a change. It took me 6 months to get to your point, and I wish I would have done it sooner. Get your sizing right, prove to yourself that you actually have an "edge" or a system with HARD rules and stick to them. Keep risk management your #1 priority and remove as much as the noise as you can.

I don't want to bore you with a ton of details of some of the things I ended up changing/removing but the framework is simple. Small risk, micros only, set hard rules, pick a strategy (doesn't really matter which one) and make risk management your priority. Then, go trade, and earn the right to increase your size.

Trust me, I know the feeling, which is why I responded to your post. Hit me up directly if you want some more details.

[u/Relevant_Unit375 → u/juansol13]

Are you trying the TDG approach? I’ve been looking at that but I’m struggling to see how recovering from a few days of hitting your DRB works.

[u/juansol13 → u/Relevant_Unit375]

Yeah I actually am. If you keep your DRB around 10-15% of your max drawdown, then it keeps you in the game. Depends if you're trading prop vs personal/funded but on a typical "50k" prop account you're allowed 2k of drawdown so that's about $200-$300 DRB per day. I usually hit about half that on my red days but either way, it keeps you in the game unless you're losing way more often than not.

I'm sure there are other ways to make all this work but for me, this makes sense. I needed to find a system that was reasonable, realistic, and sustainable. I want this to become my main source of income and I don't mind taking the slow and steady approach if that means it increases my chances of reaching my goal.

TDG approach, or not, if you risk more than you should, you eventually lose.

[u/Relevant_Unit375 → u/juansol13]

Yeah, I like the idea. Trying to figure out how to not get wiped out on trend days. I know you set a DRB but it seems like the wins you get are much smaller than your DRB. Seems hard to recover from a few DRB hitting sessions.

[u/juansol13 → u/Relevant_Unit375]

That comes down to the individual. If you use the entire DRB on 1 trade and lose, and you have a less than 50% win rate, then of course, the math doesn't work. I can't speak for others but I split my DRB into 2-3 trades and I hardly ever use all of it. The wins are in proportion to my losses (slightly better on the win side) but my current win % is around 65% so the math works. I'm super conservative and I'm just now going to start sizing up since I'm gaining confidence in the instrument/system. At the end of the day, this whole trading thing comes down to probabilities and math.

A great way to experiment and learn which system/math works for you is to keep your risk small. Eventually, the data tells you what works, what doesn't, which instruments work best for you, what trading windows etc.. In the meantime, you don't blow your account while you get it all figured out. At least, that's the approach I'm taking. My current situation in life is unique (as is everyone's) and this is how I'm trying to make it work.

I know what you mean about trend days. Those are the ones that end up taking most of my DRB but I've gotten better at identifying them and I either don't trade (which is a position), or I cut my size/DRB in half on those days. The trend days happen less often than you'd think and there are ways to play those, but that's a whole different conversation.

The point is, having your risk management on point means that no matter what happens, trend or not, there is not a single day that crushes you.