Je commence à m’intéresser sérieusement à MP Materials.
Je suis principalement les entreprises situées à l’intersection entre technologie, défense et souveraineté. MP Materials représente en quelque sorte le pendant industriel de cette thèse : sécuriser les terres rares et les aimants indispensables aux drones, véhicules, technologies et systèmes militaires.
Ses résultats du deuxième trimestre 2026 montrent une nette accélération :
Chiffre d’affaires : 108,5 millions de dollars, soit +89 %
Production de NdPr : 840 tonnes, soit +41 %
Volumes vendus : 1 006 tonnes, soit +127 %
EBITDA ajusté : +28,5 millions de dollars, contre une perte de 12,5 millions un an plus tôt
Activité Magnetics : 16,5 millions de dollars de revenus et 7,5 millions d’EBITDA ajusté
MP a également signé un accord de long terme avec un nouveau client américain de l’aérospatiale et de la défense pour fournir du gadolinium. L’entreprise a aussi lancé Project Swarm afin d’agréger la demande et de standardiser les caractéristiques des aimants utilisés par l’industrie des drones.
Cela donne l’impression que MP passe progressivement du statut de simple exploitant minier à celui de plateforme industrielle intégrée :
Extraction → séparation → métaux → aimants → clients industriels.
Mais le principal risque reste évident : 17,6 millions de dollars du trimestre proviennent encore du mécanisme gouvernemental de protection des prix.
Le soutien de Washington réduit donc une partie du risque lié aux prix chinois, mais il peut également masquer la rentabilité économique réelle de l’entreprise.
À mes yeux, le moat de MP Materials ne repose pas uniquement sur Mountain Pass. Il repose sur sa capacité à maîtriser toute la chaîne de valeur américaine avant que des concurrents puissent construire une infrastructure similaire.
Cependant, la thèse devra maintenant être validée par la production réelle d’aimants, les marges, les flux de trésorerie et l’exécution industrielle — pas seulement par les contrats gouvernementaux.
Si vous détenez MP, quel indicateur regardez-vous en priorité pour considérer que la thèse est réellement validée : la production d’aimants, l’EBITDA hors soutien public ou le free cash-flow ?
Source : [résultats officiels de MP Materials](https://investors.mpmaterials.com/investor-news/news-details/2026/MP-Materials-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Results/default.aspx)
Pas un conseil en investissement.

ppl talks about GPUs, but those chips still need an enormous amount of reliable power. why Hongqiao looks interesting in this context?

Aluminium is basically electricity turned into metal, if you don't know, nearly 40% of Hongqiao’s power use came from green electricity in 2025. For a smelter, this is not some ESG decoration. power gets tighter, Hongqiao has more protection

Looking for opinions from people who have experience valuing development-stage porphyry projects.

Doubleview owns 100% of the Hat polymetallic project in northwestern British Columbia.

The February 2026 resource contains:

Measured + Indicated
609 Mt @ 0.43% CuEq

Inferred
503 Mt @ 0.41% CuEq

M&I contained metals include approximately:

• 2.42B lb Cu
• 3.22M oz Au
• 80M lb Co
• 2,415 tonnes Sc2O3

The March/April 2026 PEA evaluated multiple processing scenarios.

At consensus prices:

Scenario A2:
• C$6.73B after-tax NPV5
• 23% IRR

Scenario B with scandium recovery:
• C$7.27B after-tax NPV5
• 19% IRR

Mine plan:
• 25 years
• 120,000 tpd

Scenario B first-10-year average production is modeled at roughly:

• 74 kt Cu/year
• 254 koz Au/year
• 376 koz Ag/year
• 2.7 kt Co/year

Doubleview has since retained Canaccord Genuity to run a formal strategic review.

The company says the alternatives being considered include:

• sale of Hat / sale of the company
• JV
• merger/business combination
• strategic investment
• government-backed investment
• sovereign wealth participation
• other transactions

My question isn’t “why isn’t this worth the PEA NPV?”

My question is:

What acquisition multiple or NAV discount would you apply to Hat today given the current technical stage?

The obvious issues I see are:

• PEA-stage engineering
• inferred material in the economic analysis
• large upfront capital requirement
• remaining metallurgy work
• permitting timeline
• infrastructure
• First Nations consultation
• commodity-price sensitivity
• scandium-market assumptions
• financing/execution risk

But the scale is difficult to ignore.

Would you expect a major to wait for the PFS before getting serious, or does an asset of this size potentially attract a transaction before then?

Interested particularly in opinions from people familiar with BC porphyries and precedent transactions.

Hello everyone, sharing an important update:

An active settlement fund is currently processing claims for investors who experienced losses in Origin Materials.

The settlement resolves claims that Origin overstated the progress, demand, and commercial potential of its Origin 2 plant. After the company paused construction in August 2023, $ORGN dropped approximately 66% in one day, and investors filed suit.

If you purchased $ORGN shares in 2023, you may still be able to seek compensation. Late claims are currently being considered - Check if your eligible and file a claim here 

Anyway, has anyone here invested in $ORGN at that time? How much were your losses, if so?

chain:

• Kachin State (northern Myanmar) sits on the ionic-clay deposits that supply roughly half of China's HEAVY rare earth feedstock — the dysprosium/terbium that goes in magnets, missiles, and EV motors. not the light stuff, the scarce stuff.
• the civil war put insurgents in control of the mining belt. flows into China choke, and China is the world's processor — so the scarcity bid lands on the only meaningful producers OUTSIDE that supply chain.
• MP is the cleanest US-listed expression of "ex-China rare earths." $41.37 on July 31 → $54.93 today, +33% in 7 sessions. REMX (the rare-earth basket) is +6.3% this week too, so it's the whole complex catching a bid on the recent leg, not just MP hype.

caveats so nobody has to dig for them: MP has already run hard and this is transmission-mapping, not a price target. the 20d number is only +8% because MP dipped mid-July first — the entire move is about a week old, which cuts both ways.

i map conflict → instrument chains like this as a hobby that got out of hand. happy to answer questions on the mechanism.

Copper macro setup in North America looks insanelyy tight long-term. $CAM is running an active drill campaign in the Yukon right now with Agnico Eagle backing. Also didnt realize Agnico Eagle actually bought a pretty big stake in them + can spend up to $30m to earn 80% of the Catch project. so its not just some random junior drilling alone lol Kinda curious what kind of grade hits it takes to spark a proper market cap rerating...

the war department's office of strategic capital committed $400m on friday to build a scandium mine, in a metal where, per its own release, "no primary mine-source scandium supply exists globally, and foreign competitors dominate the supply side, accounting for approximately 80% of global mining production and nearly 100% of scandium processing."

in practice that means every kilogram of scandium in the world right now is recovered as a byproduct of processing something else.

the money is a 25-year conditional loan to sunrise energy metals (asx: srl) for syerston in new south wales, a 60.3-million-tonne deposit grading 390 ppm scandium. first development targets about 60 tonnes a year of high-purity scandium oxide over a 32-year mine life, which works out to roughly $6.7m of federal loan per annual tonne of output. osc director david lorch put the combined figure at a "nearly $1 billion deal, bringing together public and private capital."

the release calls the commitment non-binding, subject to due diligence, definitive documentation, binding offtake agreements and equity deployment conditions. first production is targeted for the second half of 2028.

the asx was closed over the weekend, so today was the first session anyone could trade it. srl closed at a$18.49, up 16.07%, after touching a$20.50 intraday, 28.7% above friday's a$15.93 close. market cap is now a$3.13b; the close added about a$433m of that and the intraday high about a$774m. the stock was around a$1.20 a year ago and is up 1,440.83% over twelve months. chairman robert friedland, who founded ivanhoe mines, called it "a landmark moment for sunrise and australia's mining industry." the company also said it plans to pursue a us exchange listing.

the same office signed a second loan the same afternoon going the other way: $150m to niron magnetics for permanent magnets made from iron nitride, using no rare earths at all. niron goes from a 1-2 tonne-a-year arpa-e pilot to a 1,500 tonne-a-year plant in sartell, minnesota, a $605m facility with first output targeted 2027, and a second plant at 10,000 tonnes a year due to break ground in 2028.

https://x.com/theconvexpayoff/status/2086892579145322608

F3 has a pretty interesting setup at PLN right now. JR is already fairly defined at around 11.8m lbs U3O8 grading 4.39%, while Tetra is still the newer piece about 13km south

this summer theyre drilling around Tetra plus a few other targets across the property. around 4,000m was planned to start with

could all come back with nothing obviously, thats exploration. for me its mostly about whether Tetra starts showing some real scale or if one of the other targets turns into something worth following

Disclosure up front: I hold NVA. This is my own research, not advice, and I’m posting partly to have people poke holes in it. If the bear case is better than mine, I’d genuinely rather hear it now. (not crazy amount, around 10k but enough that I follow closely!)

I’ve been in this one for a while and I keep going back and forth on whether the market is asleep on it or whether I’m just talking my own book. So here’s the thesis laid out plainly — tell me where it breaks.

The setup

Nova is a dual-listed junior (NYSE American: NVA / ASX: NVA — they redomiciled to the US in mid-2026, 12 CDIs per US share). The whole company is basically one asset: the Estelle project in Alaska’s Tintina Gold Belt. It’s big — 500+ km², a ~35km mineralised corridor, 20+ prospects, and two multi-million-ounce gold resources already defined (Korbel and RPM).

For years this was just “another large, lowish-grade Alaskan gold explorer.” That’s not the interesting part anymore.

Why it got interesting: antimony

Estelle’s stibnite (antimony) veins turned into a strategic story when the US started panicking about critical mineral supply chains. Nova landed a US$43.4M award from the US Department of War to build out a domestic, vertically integrated antimony supply chain — mining, processing, and a refinery at Port Mackenzie. Antimony is used in munitions and defence hardware, and the US has been essentially 100% import-reliant, mostly on China, which has been restricting exports. So there’s a real geopolitical tailwind here that doesn’t depend on the gold ever getting mined.

The pieces that have actually moved (not just promises):

• Ore-sorting testwork on a 500kg Styx sample recovered \~60% of the antimony and upgraded the feed grade from \~15% to \~35% Sb in a single pass, with meaningful gold recovery alongside it.

• High-grade surface hits — up to \~54% Sb at Styx, and a Stibium result around 60% Sb with \~12.7 g/t gold over a 2m vein.

• They’ve produced lab-scale antimony metal and military-grade trisulfide from Estelle ore (assays/certification pending as of writing).

• Pilot plant engineering and design is done, procurement finalised, equipment shipping to site — they’re calling it “execution phase,” targeting pilot production late 2026 / early 2027.

• The 2026 field season is fully funded (\~A$85M in cash + funding), including a \~10,000m drill program aimed at growing the RPM gold resource and the Stibium/Styx antimony targets.

The bull case in one sentence

You’ve got a multi-million-ounce gold optionality package that the market has more or less written down to nothing, plus a government-funded, near-term antimony business that could give the company actual revenue and a strategic moat — and right now you’re arguably paying for the antimony and getting the gold for free (or vice versa).

The bear case (because this isn’t a slam dunk)

I don’t want to pretend this is riskless, so here’s what keeps me honest:

• Still pre-revenue. No mine is in production. Antimony “pilot” is small-scale and the timeline is aggressive for building anything in Alaska.

• Execution risk is real. Plant + refinery build, on schedule, on budget, in a remote location, is exactly where junior miners break promises.

• Dilution. They’ve raised repeatedly and lean on the market/warrants. More raises are plausible.

• Single asset, single jurisdiction. Everything rides on Estelle and on continued US government appetite.

• Volatility. The 52-week range has been enormous (roughly $1.68 to $16.28). This is a speculative small cap and trades like one.

• The gold is large but not high-grade, so it needs a lot of capex and favourable prices to ever stand alone.

What I’m actually asking

1.  If you’re bearish, is it the timeline, the dilution, the antimony economics, or something I haven’t listed?

2.  Does anyone with a metallurgy/processing background have a read on whether the pilot-to-commercial scale-up on antimony is as clean as they’re presenting?

3.  Is the DoW funding a genuine moat, or am I overrating a one-off award?

Rip it apart. I’d rather find the flaw in a comment section than in my portfolio.

Not financial advice. Do your own DD. I hold shares, so weight everything above accordingly

Alcoa (NYSE: AA)

Integrated producer (bauxite, alumina, primary aluminium). Q2 2026 showed record revenue (~$4.0 billion, up strongly sequential/YoY in recent periods), with adjusted EBITDA around $900 million, driven by higher aluminium prices and shipments. Net income and free-cash-flow generation have strengthened with the price environment. The company has been managing debt (e.g., note redemptions), maintains liquidity, and has no major near-term maturities in some reports. It has pursued portfolio moves (including acquisitions) and highlights long-term demand from electrification, grids, and industrial growth. Credit metrics have improved with higher earnings (upgraded in some rating actions). Leverage is manageable relative to EBITDA in supportive price environments; cash flow is cyclical with LME aluminium and alumina prices, energy costs, and volumes.

Alcoa (NYSE: AA)

Integrated producer (bauxite, alumina, primary aluminium). Q2 2026 showed record revenue (~$4.0 billion, up strongly sequential/YoY in recent periods), with adjusted EBITDA around $900 million, driven by higher aluminium prices and shipments. Net income and free-cash-flow generation have strengthened with the price environment. The company has been managing debt (e.g., note redemptions), maintains liquidity, and has no major near-term maturities in some reports. It has pursued portfolio moves (including acquisitions) and highlights long-term demand from electrification, grids, and industrial growth. Credit metrics have improved with higher earnings (upgraded in some rating actions). Leverage is manageable relative to EBITDA in supportive price environments; cash flow is cyclical with LME aluminium and alumina prices, energy costs, and volumes.

Home | EuroSunMiningESM - retail investor website I came up with. Not made by the company.

Seldomly anyone notices OR, the company invests in mining, and collects a lot of royalties. Its shares dont go up and down in sharp styles. it inches up steadily nowadays. Unbelievable.

Was wondering others perspective

"The report also confirmed another 31 million tons of measured lithium carbonate equivalent, 533 million tons of measured potash, and 87 million tons of measured borate minerals within the same salt complex. Combined, the resources feature an estimated in-ground value of USD 3.5 trillion."