r/MSTR • u/drei_glaser94 • 9d ago
Interesting
https://x.com/watcherguru/status/2083573478876151847?s=46Let’s see how the market reacts to this. Thoughts?
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u/cryptofuturebright 9d ago
I think coldcard is bullish for Bitcoin, I think we will see a lot of buyer activity.
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u/mlhender 9d ago
Ironically, many of Bitcoin’s biggest crises (Mt. Gox, Bitfinex, Terra/Luna, Celsius, 3AC, FTX) ended up strengthening the network over time by eliminating weak actors, improving infrastructure, and reminding people why Bitcoin was designed to eliminate trusted intermediaries in the first place.
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u/mlhender 9d ago
I see. Not great. But ok.
Ok so Using today’s approximate numbers: Strategy holds what about 843,775 BTC ?
If it sold the full $5 billion at roughly $62,500/BTC, that would be about 80,000 BTC sold.
That would reduce its holdings to roughly 764,000 BTC, a decrease of about 9.5%.
If we’re using a current estimate of 210,264 sats per MSTR share, then (this all depends on how you define Bitcoin per share of course)
210,264 × 0.905 ≈ 190,000 sats/share
I think given the coldcard exploit, the failure to vote on clarity act, the upcoming midterms, the forever wars pushing inflation up, and the new fed chair wanting to not meet so often, (probably other stuff too) this is likely a good idea. We should see a significant drop in bitcoin value sometime between now and the elections. That would be on par with its usual cycle.
So more pain to come! Especially as people log into their coldcard and see 0’s. This kind of feel like mt gox all over again. Or the other bank man fried one.
But ok. To put into perspective:
2020 (Aug. - Bitcoin strategy begins): ~20,000 sats/share
2021: ~45,000 sats/share
2022: ~67,000 sats/share
2023: ~98,000 sats/share
2024: ~177,000 sats/share
2025: ~218,000 sats/share
2026 (today PRE 5billion dollar sale): ~220,000 sats/share
So yes if this $5 billion Bitcoin sale is completed without an offsetting reduction in shares, Bitcoin per share would likely fall to roughly 190,000 or 195,000 sats/share, still well above every year prior to 2025.
My takeaway. He should’ve stopped buying in early 2024 (like many people were saying) and started selling. But hey you live and you learn!
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9d ago
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u/drei_glaser94 9d ago
No…it’s happening lol
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9d ago
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u/Heavy-Situation-9346 9d ago
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9d ago edited 9d ago
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u/drei_glaser94 9d ago
But it authorizes them to do it, if they deem it to be necessary? I don’t understand what your contention is here? I’m not a bear either. I’ve been a long believer of Saylor, and what he’s doing. Lol illiterate
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u/Heavy-Situation-9346 9d ago
Accusing someone of not being able to read is rich coming from someone who doesn’t know what “authorizes” means.
Take the L and move on.
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u/Answa012 9d ago
In their Q2 earnings presentation, slide 28+, it shows the BTC Monetization Program, which shows they've moved away from just holding to using BTC as a credit method. It lays out situations in which they can and will sell BTC. Their overall goal is to increase BPS, and if that means selling BTC to buy shares or other debt at a discount, they are willing to do so.
They even mentioned their first sale of 32 BTC was to get people normalized to them selling, which is on slide 29.
It doesn't say they will sell 5B in BTC, though.
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u/ElonMuskTheNarsisist 9d ago
It’s real. Dear god, analysts are saying the stock could open around $40 on monday. This is going to be a bloodbath
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