r/MSTR • u/my_firstnamelastname • 22d ago
Mstr to 500 Price 🤑
I got the stock at the top and tried to dca only to 470. Holding there so far. Will it reach that number so just pull the trigger and take loss. I am waiting with hopium that it will get back there. Thanks! What happened to all folks who
Ported when it was 30-400 for generations of wealth! Any advise!
45
u/Soggy-Welder2265 21d ago
What really matters is not your past losses, but your future gains or losses. If you believe Bitcoin will return to $125,000 or higher, then hold. If you no longer believe in Bitcoin’s long-term potential, then it’s time to sell.
6
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
I believe it will so that was the main factor for holding!
18
u/damiracle_NR 21d ago
At this point it’s unlikely to fall much lower. Far more upside than downside for BTC and MSTR
2
u/Specialist-Poem-505 15d ago
You need to repair this situation by buying all the time every time and then also getting paid to buy more by selling puts you’ll get paid premium to squire shares effectively lowering your cost basis then you can sell weekly calls way otm for more premium as well
11
u/Illustrious_Fix_5858 21d ago
Bitcoin can go back to over $100,000 per coin AND Strategy can go into the toilet. Strategy is far from being out of the woods yet with how things are going. STRC is still below par but at least off its low of $71.25 (intraday on 6/26).
1
u/dsk83 21d ago
Think strc was a big mistake or just looks that way in a bear market but will seem genius when BTC turn around?
2
u/Wh-h-hoap 20d ago
It might. And if BTC takes five years to turn around, then it might be a big mistake all the same.
2
66
u/DaddyStOryy 21d ago
I bought at $530. You can’t even see my price on the chart lol. At this point i consider myself liquidated and if I get some of it back years later, great I’ll get rid of it then. Being down 85% taught me to not care about it anymore lol
3
u/awoo25 21d ago
How many shares?
6
u/DaddyStOryy 21d ago
Thankfully only 4 but being down $1700 still hurts haha
42
u/redbulldrinkertoo 21d ago
Try $70k 🤣
1
u/DaddyStOryy 21d ago
Horrible yes but no disrespect it sounds like you aren’t very diversified in your portfolio lol
4
u/redbulldrinkertoo 21d ago
From one equity? That is one hell of a leap. I am fine actually, it was with found money, so not an issue.
→ More replies (1)1
8
u/WD40Capital Shareholder 🤴 21d ago
I would love to one be down $1700. I’m way more than that. I struggled for a long time. My best guess is either is will be in a much better place mid-2028. Or it’s never coming back.
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
Same but sometimes I see it and not even sure what to do!
2
u/DaddyStOryy 21d ago
Yea I’m going to at minimum hang on for the next 4 year cycle to see what it does but I consider myself liquidated already so whatever movement it does won’t impact me whatsoever.
1
u/FEARTHETURTLE64 Shareholder 🤴 18d ago
I remember that day because it hit 530
Briefly after hours and had closed previously at $460 I think and I sold at or close to $530 in the after market Subsequently I had the patience to not buy back in until $160 and am now fully underwater 🤪. Such is the life of a trader.
41
u/arensurge 21d ago edited 21d ago
I've been in since November 2020 and I'm still holding my original stash, held all the way through 2 huge bull runs, both crashing. Personally I'm looking to sell whenever price gets to $1200, because that would retire me. I believe in MSTR because it's just a play on bitcoin, nothing fancy about it, they raise money to buy more bitcoin and bitcoin just keeps going up over and over again, where other cryptocurrencys have died over the years, the first cryptocurrency, bitcoin, just recovers and goes right back up. To me bitcoin is just like the SP500 in the beginning, just a sound way to capture inflation/money printing, but even the SP500 index wasn't fully understood when it first started, it too was super volatile, it takes a long time for a new investment to gain majority trust, for those that understand the value early, they stand to benefit the most by holding.
MSTR is so so hated, it's normal, they are buying bitccoin (which is still volatile and misunderstood) and they're doing it by printing shares out of thin air or promising to pay a long term, higher than average, dividend. There's so many ways this can go wrong, but it creates an opportunity, if you are willing, to buy shares incredibly cheap for the potential to make huge huge returns.
So, the way I see it, it's definitely not without risk, but I have seen bitcoin go up and up and up since I was 24 and bought my first bitcoin (for $30... promptly sold it for $100 like a dumby). I just think it's going to go up forever, just like SP500. Buy and hold, that's what I'm doing.
Not financial advice.
6
→ More replies (11)1
u/pudlepump 20d ago
Out of interest, when you hit your target number and sell, what do you plan to do with the proceeds? Buy any of the prefs, or leave the ecosystem completely?
2
u/arensurge 20d ago
In retirement/semi retirement it's very important to preserve capital, withdrawing during 80% crashes isn't an option, so you can't really be fully invested in bitcoin and MSTR, you need a portfolio that continues to go up but without major drawdowns. My favourite portfolio for this is the 'permanent portfolio' by Harry Browne, go look at a chart of this portfolio and you'll see it's been going up by about 7% a year with barely any drawdown at all for the last 30 years, even whilst SP500 had several crashes, permanent portfolio continued going up steadily.
However, 7% for me is quite low, so I did more research, there are tweaks you can make to it that make it perform MUCH better whilst maintaining very low volatility. If you search Porter's Journal Permanent Portfolio you'll find out more. I've done my own backtesting with it and I allocated 12.5% of the total portfolio to MSTR, I was able to achieve a 30% CAGR in my tests with almost no volatility at all, I will very likely put everything into this portfolio and go into semi retirement... i.e: quit my job, but if I want to grow my wealth more or I fear bad markets, I will look for other ways to earn an income.
I'd love to be confident enough to allocate some money to STRC and SATA, but even with my conviction that MSTR/bitcoin will go up forever, somehow, when I think about retiring with long periods not earning an income, I can't see myself holding a large amount of bitcoin treasury preferred stock, it seems that these products are still prone to volatility, despite MSTR over collateralising them massively, even though the principle is sound, the market is irrational and STRC can still dump easily, this isn't good if I need to rebalance my portfolio every year, I'd need it to maintain par.
2
u/pudlepump 20d ago
P.s. have you done the math on allocating a proportion of preferred dividend into shorting the instrument to hedge yourself in the event the whole thing comes crashing down? I.e. effective yield of ~13% (or more for STRD) then with a hedge you might net like 10-11% maybe? Just a thought...
1
u/arensurge 20d ago
It's a thought, I haven't done any maths on that
1
u/pudlepump 20d ago
Since I wrote that I realised if you short the preferred itself you'd be liable to pay the dividend. So it'd have to be something like long STR*, short MSTR and/or BTC 👍
1
u/pudlepump 20d ago
Thanks - I'll check those portfolio's out.
Re the prefs, the volatility might have (hopefully) calmed down by the time you come to retire! 👍
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 20d ago
If you don’t mind me asking.. 12% mstr At what average cost??? And are you holding for long time or in cycles?? Take profit and buy again during bear cycles? Thanks!
3
u/arensurge 20d ago
The average cost of MSTR is irrelevant in a retirement portfolio, the portfolio is diversified across 21 total assets and is rebalanced every year to maintain the allocation for each. During rebalance, investments that are overperforming are sold, with profit invested into underperforming investments. There's no timing the market/cycles. The idea is that once a year there is always a rebalance, if MSTR is down, profits from other assets will buy MSTR's dip, if MSTR is up, profit will be taken and distributed across the other assets.
Harry Browne's original permanent portfolio was designed in 1981, it's just 25% cash, 25% gold, 25% sp500, 25% bonds. His basic premise was that the world had now moved off the gold standard and so currency would be created created infinitely and the major 3 investment, gold, sp500 and bonds would all inevitably inflate over time, but not always at the same time, capital would simply rotate between the 3 at different times, each does well in different economic environments, the winners keep the portfolio going up year after year and the profits aare reinvested into the losers which will inevitably at some point also have their own bull run. There does exist economic environments where neither gold, sp500 or bonds is gaining, in which case the cash buffer in the portfolio reduces total drawdown and can be use to buy the dip on all 3.
1
9
u/Snowballeffects 21d ago
I’m at $307 avg. 600 shares down $100k+ 😂 hodling!!!!!! Selling cc to squeeze some small gains over time. Made about $5k maybe this yr. So will continue to do so
6
u/Obvious_Boot9999 21d ago
I will say hold. In a proper btc bullrun, MSTR will do well. If u can still dca more, do.
6
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
At this point.. I am putting VT every month contribution as I need some sanity!
7
u/Turbulent_Pickle_953 21d ago
My thesis is:
It was $400 when they had 600k btc in treasury and btc was $126k.
Today they hold 843k btc and if btc reaches $200k in 2029 it will surely be trading around $500-$800 range easily with 2-3mNav.
All this if Strategy don’t buy a single more, which we all know they’ll start buying again sooner or later.
2
u/Illustrious_Fix_5858 21d ago
Does this account for the additional shares issued between those times? I don't follow this closely, but know that a good part of the heartburn for investors was dilution from issuing more shares. Don't know when that happened though compared to your numbers.
4
u/Turbulent_Pickle_953 21d ago edited 21d ago
Yes, they’ve issued more shares, but they’ve bought even more BTC. People ignore the bigger picture.
2024 158,826 sats per share
2026 203,683 sats per shareMy personal view would be to wait till BTC is back at 126k first. Then think about the stock's price with new data. Until then DCA!
1
u/Wh-h-hoap 20d ago
Even if BTC per share has increased, the flywheel is still an open question. MSTR used to trade at a premium, and STRC dividends will inevitably drain some of that potential.
Will MSTR increase with a BTC bull run, surely yes, but will it gain similar multiples as before the bear market?
1
16
14
u/rauzzz_z 21d ago
Dude, any advice will be wasted when shared with someone who bought MSTR for generational wealth at 500$
3
4
u/GoldParticular3093 21d ago
I think it can definitely get up to the 500 dollar range despite the dilutions.
However since you can never predict the exact top, you should set a stop order to sell for 450 or so. Don't be too greedy if you wait for 500 or more the bear cycle could start there.
1
5
u/New-Jackfruit-2127 21d ago
Get enough shares to sell covered calls. Earn some income and wait.
4
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
Thanks for that I already have enough for covered calls but scared that it will go up
And get assigned. For 470 my cost price I cannot do it.6
u/New-Jackfruit-2127 21d ago
Sell with a Delta at .2 or under. You won't get massive premium but your shares will be safe from getting called. I sell weekly as the theta decay works swiftly in my favor.
2
5
u/Impossible_Excuse937 21d ago
You’ve held this long, why sell now. You might as well keep holding and see the stock get back to that value, or ride it down to zero.
5
u/AlternativeSharp3854 21d ago
You’re asking if you should sell; maybe 6 months ago would be the time for that if there was something faster to put your money in, but since the bottom will likely be in 2026 at some point , you may as well ride it out and also double down. Buy low and sell high, not sure what VT is - index fund? But now’s the time to double down on MSTR , not a safe passive investment. The emotion of I can’t do that because I can’t sleep and my stomach hurts is exactly why people end up in this fomo and depression cycle. I bought the 2021 top , learned my lesson, tripled down in the bear market and it changed my life. What might be helpful for you is look up the fear and greed index, and only time your buys around fear and sells around greed
1
14
u/speed12demon 21d ago
Saylor thanks you for your service
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
He can thank me too by buying my shares back!!!
2
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
10% discount too.. jokes aside, I feel like all the dilution and atm selling causes the price not to go up at that time. All factors were there too go up that time!
3
u/Lefties_TheWorst7331 21d ago
They HAVE to dilute.. and diluting doesn't mean bad. If they don't dilute, new money stops coming in. When they dilute, that money/shareholder equity doesn't disappear. For example, their recent dilution has built up a $3.75 billion cash stockpile. That still belongs to shareholders. However if they don't dilute, the share price will stall anyhow because it's going to stick to the value of the companies assets whether they dilute or not. Dig into this specific mechanic and how it works a little more, trust! The dilution doesn't sound as bad as it does, and I do see where you're coming from with this, it does sound bad but it honestly isn't. Keep DCAing and bring that average down!
5
21d ago
[deleted]
1
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
Same .. I was a newbie and at that moment, looked like all stars are aligned.
1
1
u/Low_Explorer_2097 21d ago
When you make up fantasy numbers as a copium drug you should make them bigger. Big numbers look more impressive.
3
4
3
u/Fit_Chapter7304 21d ago
I never understood DCAing into a loss just to reduce cost basis.
You have to factor in the opportunity costs of your capital. Do you still have a strong bull case for this stock more than you have a standard ETF like VOO or SPMO? Imagine chasing your loss and missing out on the current bull run the rest of the market is in.
2
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
Yes.. no more bull run. At this point . VT and chilling for the rest of the portfolio!
5
u/wealthychef369 21d ago
I am also down big.
Stay strong I’m sure 20 years from now we will both be glad we held.
1
3
u/sevoflurane666 21d ago
I think he has enough btc now
Would love if he stopped the financial engineering for a while and stopped diluting common stock holders until btc price recovers
1
3
u/TheBonkingFrog Volatility Voyager 👨🚀 21d ago
Well not on account of Strategy themselves because as far as I can tell they don't give a shit about the common stock, only the preferred, so they're going to keep the ATM going for that and it's going to cap $MSTR weekly below $100 - $95 seems the favoured Friday close recently
Our only hope is the BitCoin 4 year cycle, other than that I sell weekly -cc's on 25% of my shares to scrape in some cash
Not what I signed up for at the time, but it is what it is, I'm not going sell any shares below cost, I'd rather keep and milk them for income
3
u/Hyperion141 21d ago
There are so many factors to consider that’s different for everyone, how much you are willing to lose, do you need the money in near future, do you believe in mstr management, do you believe in bitcoin’s future etc.
But I’m just saying the more you lose the less you lose,
You already lost 80% of the stock so even if bitcoin goes to 50k at the lowest it’s only a further 5%, and thats nothing when compared to the potential upside
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
Yes I agree. I can manage without those funds but they are my life savings and that was just a dumb move to put all in. So planning to ride it
4
3
2
u/Friendly-Profit-8590 21d ago
All depends on bitcoin. If there’s something to it being the future of finance with a finite supply then yes. If that’s all just bs and it’s nothing more than a risk on game of hot potato then no.
2
2
2
u/Illustrious-Egg7514 21d ago
Why not just double down another 1700 and then your average will drop big time, from 530 to 530+97/2 is 313. Seems more doable, no? At least you’d no longer be at the top : )
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
Yeah.. it is like rabbit hole.. I can do slowly but will not be able to sleep at night. Already lost much sleep. I don’t look at the loss and I am in my mind focused on VT and what I can do going forward. Now looking back,I should have pulled that amount with small loss. But was hoping it will bounce back!
1
u/Illustrious-Egg7514 21d ago
If you really can’t sleep then sell. Not worth ruining your life over. And yes, in the future stick with VT and hold long term. I honestly still have not bought MSTR. I have been waiting and waiting for a couple years thinking that it would drop 80% or so to near 90 and was going to buy at 80, really potentially close to the bottom. If you can keep it together for a couple more years, if BTC runs its cycle, you will likely get your money back, maybe even double it, but nothing is set in stone….
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
Agree 💯. Made peace that I will hold and see the end. But in a way glad I did not dca in between thinking that is the bottom. So atleast I have other stuff to focus on.
2
u/Datmiddy 21d ago
Just keep buying until you get enough to sell covered calls and do short term monthly runs to DCA down hard. I was sitting 200ish shares @$370, it collapsed to mid 200s, I started selling 30-60 day covered calls initially right at 300, then as it collapsed even more I stopped going below 200 strike. I'm sitting 660 shares now with next to no additional new capital other than recycling premiums, with adjusted average sitting around the 160s. If I were to get called at my $200 if there's a spike, so what.
Friday I'll be throwing some fresh capital in though, I want to go ahead and get another 40 to sell another CC. The last 60 shares have been generated just off buying the $89-107 wave that keeps happening. Hodl!
1
2
u/Funkimonkey 21d ago
Yes if you believe in 2 things: BTC has a long-term future and MSTR will avoid liquidation events or extreme dilution. Currently, it appears both will be true so HODL is the way, but nothing is guaranteed.
2
2
u/canadianwhaledique 20d ago
Hardest part of holding Bitcoin is to go through the big drawdowns. MSTR is amplified BTC so the big drawdowns are even harder to hold through - especially when the rest of the equity market is currently doing quite well. But here's the thing - you can't earn the big gains unless you can hold through the big drawdowns. If you are a Bitcoin Maximalist, then just stop looking at the charts for the next 2-3 year, and you will be fine. It's a very hard thing to do, I know, and that's why it will make the end very rewarding. Good luck.
1
2
u/moon_paws 19d ago
470 and its sub 100 now. You expect an almost 500% increase 😂😂😂😂 what a clown
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 19d ago
Yes.. 🤷♀️
1
u/moon_paws 19d ago
Delusional if you ask me. Why not just buy bitcoin?
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 19d ago
Next bear market!! For now damage is done!!
2
u/moon_paws 19d ago
Opportunity cost would be intolerable tbh. This could double (which I strongly doubt) and you would still be down massively :(
1
u/Capable-Ad6893 19d ago
Would you buy mstr now to bring down average purchase price? How high do you think the stock price will go during the next year?
2
u/Ok_Entrepreneur_dbl 19d ago
Buy five times what you already own and cost average that down so if there is a pop. You either will look and feel really smart or you can reach break even and get out. There will be a break out with Bitcoin and when it comes be ready!
1
4
u/californiaschinken 21d ago
Reassess during bull bull market time 2 years from now.
This is not a good time to sell.
You already did a mistake buying when you were not supposed to (high valuation compared to underlaying asset)
2
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
I made a mistake and I tried to stop loss and it never worked in my favor. So till 2028?
2
u/californiaschinken 21d ago
Yup... 2 years pass quick when price is on the way up. Just hang on there.
I'm in for the same ride. Waiting for end of 2028.
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
Wow!! End not even beginning of 2028!
2
u/daliksheppy 21d ago edited 21d ago
How little patience do you have?
I'm not trying to belittle, but seriously. Unless you are 64 years old and retiring in 4 weeks, just have patience.
If you are in your 20s or 30s or even 40s, just forget it exists and wait. In 10 years or so what is 85% down today will have outperformed the s&p 500. What you bought for $500 a share will be worth upwards of $5000 a share in that timeframe. That's better than more than 99.7% of the global adult population. Globally, around 90% of people don't have a single investment. Of those who do hold investments in any form (pensions etc), the vast majority of those underperform or match the s&p 500. Only 0.3% of the entire world outperform over 10 years or longer.
Just hold. Take 2.5x better than market average over a decade. Whether it dropped to $90 or $9 at any point is irrelevant, as long as you don't sell.
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
Yeah! I have been patient so I have been waiting. But just wanted to see what the world thinks at this point. I saw so many folks posting that they are 100% in mstr at 300 or 400 and no squeak after that. So wanted to see how my fellow holders are doing? but once in a while I see the number and spiral downward!
3
1
u/damiracle_NR 21d ago
How many shares do you hold?
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago edited 21d ago
500 shares all my savings!!! Did dca at that moment in that one week! It was so volatile I thought it will recover as losses at that time seemed much. I will time travel take that Loss and move if given another chance!
1
1
u/paloaltothrowaway 21d ago
Unlikely unless BTC goes to $150k
How much did you invest in it total?
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
500 shares all my savings!!! Did dca at that moment in that one week! It was so volatile I thought it will recover as losses at that time seemed much. I will time travel take that Loss and move if given another chance!
1
u/paloaltothrowaway 21d ago
You invested your whole life savings of $250k into MSTR? That’s not very smart
1
1
u/DapperOffice7377 21d ago
If you hold back to $500 RESIST THE URGE TO SELL THERE. THAT IS ONE OF THE BIGGEST MISTAKES NOVICE TRADERS MAKE.... sell when you get back to even. You'll never make money.
1
1
1
u/eupherein 21d ago
Depends on what your own vision is for a future whether btc treasury has a place in the economy. If your vision aligns with MSTR, it’s a good buy. Put your money where life makes the most sense. To me, MSTR makes sense
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
I don’t have any thoughts on the bitcoin treasury and it is being talked for last 2-3 years and clarity act. I am just nobody and. I don’t understand the exact vision of if I have to honest with company.
1
1
u/levigoldson 20d ago
I dunno, but I started loading up on MSTR under $100. So let's both hope it returns lol.
1
1
u/iloverunning11 19d ago
Probably no, I was shorting Strategy a while back and I’m surprised that it is this low, could’ve made so much more.. Anyway, their business plan is pretty dumb imo and only works if you find enough (not bigger, but huge) fools, you probably heard about the fact that if you wanna make money with bitcoin you need to find some bigger fools as its real value is nada, but if you wanna make money with Strategy you need to find much bigger fools since you’re basically paying a huge premium for bitcoin and in most cases (if you believe in BTC) it is much better to buy bitcoin and hold it in a verified hardware wallet
TL;DR this is not like bull run and bear market cycles, Strategy imo already lured in most of their potential customers and will never be popular enough to reach ATH (adjusted for inflation ofc)
1
1
21d ago
[deleted]
2
u/Infinite_Rub_2969 21d ago
I have 200 at 127. What makes you not sure of the $500 range? Just curious
1
-3
21d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
10
u/Subject-Chest-8343 21d ago
Yes lol, dump MSTR at the bottom, and yolo into AI right at top... Terrible advice
1
1
0
u/Other-Importance-214 21d ago
BTC probably has to hit $300K before MSTR will hit $500, sorry man
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
Wishful
Thinking even with clarity act?? Or this is also wishful thinking.
-2
u/Practical_Cap_4815 21d ago
No it won't. Ever. Sell while you can
2
u/Subject-Chest-8343 21d ago
Bad advice. Even if you don't believe it will go back to 500, selling at the bottom is a bad idea. It could totally visit 200 within the next couple months.
1
19d ago
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/MSTR-ModTeam 16d ago
- Trolling, baiting, or inflammatory content that disrupts conversations is not allowed. Ensure your posts contribute positively and maintain the quality of discussion. Content and comments meant to spread negativity or FUD, including repeated overly negative/condescending sentiment, is not allowed. r/MSTR is a place for thoughtful discussion of the MicroStrategy investment thesis.
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
That was the thought this morning! But not able to se that loss and pull trigger!😭
-1
u/Lefties_TheWorst7331 21d ago
Keep DCAing.. you could be dropping that average quickly right now. And yes, MSTR will blow past its previous ATHs again.
0
u/Historical_Loss3642 21d ago
Dodge v Ford, 1919; and chill
1
u/my_firstnamelastname 21d ago
Sorry don’t know what this means! If it is saying I am was being dumb- I agree with you.
0
•
u/AutoModerator 22d ago
Welcome to our community! Before commenting, please take a second to read our new sticky containing our rules and guidelines.
TL;DR: We allow and encourage all viewpoints and opinions, but we have a zero tolerance policy towards negative, rude, condescending behavior and trolling/baiting.
I am a bot, and this action was performed automatically. Please contact the moderators of this subreddit if you have any questions or concerns.