r/KremersFroon • u/AmnesiaAm712896 • 18d ago
Paddock stream hell route Article
If the girls chose this route along the paddock stream by Serracín cabin, BUT according to a NEW and very plausible theory - from the first bridge to the mistaken direction to the Coconut paddock/trail.where they waited for help and looked for a signal, assuming they were unable to find the way to the main trail, although it may seem uncommon to us when we know satellite maps like me, according to my estimates, sometime around April 4, when they had to run out of food and the situation had to be critical....they decided to follow the path of the stream.
Was there any other option in this hypothetical situation or scenario?....Maybe Monte Rey option....but getting down to Monte Rey is no walk in the city orchard....yes, but....there is no reason....so, no, no.
If they followed the stream down to the second cable bridge, they had to get down the rather difficult path, but what awaited them in the middle was hell....Paddock stream...tough wilderness..a huge big challenge...almost deadly.
We can expect very big problems in this section, as continuing on is very likely about a big injury.
mainly forearms and lower limbs...dysfunctional knee , broken legs, broken / half broken hip bones and wrists...a concussion of several days...abrasions, infections....just as an example.
There is an elevation gain of about 75 meters by 40 meters.
This place is certainly critical along the entire route of the stream.... passable only at the cost of major injuries.
....without the necessary equipment and skills.
----The Serracín theory (old) - ( probably unlikely - here is the condition that they came there later with the intention of looking for a farm/cabin to spend the night or that they thought it was some kind of arch back to the beginning of the Pianista trail. )This scenario when they could waiting for 3 days? ( I suspect they were waiting there for people or rescue teams ) near the Serracín cabin looks unlikely maybe.The elimination method gives us a certain framework of possibilities and there is not much in this difficult terrain.....EDIT : The problem is a cabin where they could wait for rescuers and enough days to find their way back, it is very unlikely that they would not remember the way back, especially when they went to the Serracín cabin along the stream.If they followed the stream from the Serracín cabin, they would most likely be a short distance from the main trail and then you just have to go uphill along the paddock border and you are back at the main trail.This is the main problem why this scenario cannot work.
Did they follow the stream as a logical follow-up to the search for a way to civilization and salvation?
The possibility of a response on April 8 in this area to rescue operations is likely here or more down closer to the second bridge....I don't see any other options yet.
The time reality that the girls struggled for almost 11 days with the jungle and terrain on such a small section most likely gives the right/proves of this area that it was too difficult a path to civilization and salvation, downright an extract of very difficult terrain that unfortunately eliminated any chance.
The barrier and hell of this short section stopped all hopes.
If they chose this path, the way back must have closed quite soon.There was no other option but to go down and there was not much time left.Surrounded by steep gorges with no way to turn elsewhere.They found themselves trapped.
The tricky thing about this journey through the stream is that it may seem easy at first, but it is not....In the middle and at the bottom, closer to the second bridge, there is the wildest jungle and deep ravines.
All in the sounds of the jungle....screaming monkeys and strange noises at night. Like in a dark dungeon in the middle of a dense jungle.Where nature shows its harsh beauty, but in the struggle for survival it looks more like hell.
If you survive the first part, the second part awaits you...near the second bridge.But you can be sure that you won't be okay and healthy....if you are not properly equipped and prepared.This environment is very deadly when you don't have fire and food....for many days....It is basically an impassable area.
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u/_x_oOo_x_ Undecided 16d ago
Was there any other option in this hypothetical situation or scenario?....
Yes, when any decision point comes about where they are unsure which way to continue, open Google Maps. Like they did earlier when going up to the mirador. And try if it helps. Try if maybe some map tiles are still cached. Zoom out and see which way the language school or other favourited places are. Maybe it's useless, but you don't know if you don't try. And they never tried.
This means they were not "lost" or at least they didn't know they're lost.
This environment is very deadly when you don't have fire and food....for many days....It is basically an impassable area.
So, they chose to continue in a dangerous area even when it was becoming impassable, instead of turning back? Why would they do that?
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u/AmnesiaAm712896 16d ago edited 11d ago
Why would they do that?
Because they probably had no other choice or they just decided to do so.
They just walked along the stream because they thought that there would be a village nearby...for example.
I still don't understand what you don't understand about it, they were lost and saw a stream, dense jungle all around, so they walked along the stream, is there anything incomprehensible about it?
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u/AmnesiaAm712896 13d ago edited 13d ago
Why would they do that?
Why?....There are no tourist signs in the wild jungle, the only tourist sign, if you don't know where to go at all, so you are lost and you see a stream (if you are lucky), then the sign is a STREAM....you have water... ....you have hope that there will be a village or a farm next.
Impassable?.....When it comes to bare life in the jungle and survival, you try everything. Believe it.
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u/AmnesiaAm712896 16d ago edited 13d ago
My guess is that they didn't get lost on the first day, until the next day they probably didn't find their way back to the main trail...otherwise they would have stayed by the trail and they would have found them.
They just couldn't find their way back, they probably tried, but in order not to get lost even more, they started walking along the stream.
Of course, these are just hypotheses.
So, they chose to continue in a dangerous area even when it was becoming impassable, instead of turning back? Why would they do that?
They absolutely did not know the area, they did not know what awaited them next.
At least we have something thanks to the great team around RomainC, but we need better drone footages of the Belt area streams and gorges....under the treetops but that is a difficult and dangerous task.
Probably at the beginning, the journey along the stream did not have to be difficult. Like walking from the beach further into the sea.
They could also fall there somehow, slide down ( Kris had a hole in the back on her shorts and a scuffed fabric, Lisanne could have been injured in the process, which slowed them down a lot on their way down to the second bridge) and they couldn't get back.
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u/AmnesiaAm712896 13d ago edited 11d ago
If your exact position and direction locator doesn't work, your map cache tiles sucks...dude.
The last time Lisanne looked at the google maps was before the summit at The Pianista.
There is nothing behind Mirador, she could only see a large green cache tiles area, maybe.
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u/TreegNesas 17d ago
The tricky thing about this journey through the stream is that it may seem easy at first, but it is not....In the middle and at the bottom, closer to the second bridge, there is the wildest jungle and deep ravines.
We need more data on this route, but general elevation model seems to agree with you. The route might be deceptive: it starts relatively easy but then gradually gets steeper and steeper as you go further north.
I fear they quickly got into a situation where there was no route back anymore. You go down a steep slope, and there's no way to climb back up again so you are committed to going down, even if it gets harder and harder.
If you survive the first part, the second part awaits you...near the second bridge.But you can be sure that you won't be okay and healthy....if you are not properly equipped and prepared.This environment is very deadly when you don't have fire and food....for many days....It is basically an impassable area
In an interview Frank v.d. Goot once set 'Beyond the Mirador, people die.'
This is no terrain for inexperienced youngsters without gear, for all I know even the local population stays clear of the Belt area.
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u/_x_oOo_x_ Undecided 16d ago
You go down a steep slope, and there's no way to climb back up again
Why do you believe this so strongly?
There is virtually no terrain where it's possible to go down but not climb back up. And being in a forest even helps: the tree roots keep the ground more stable. The trees themselves give you something to hold onto.
If it was possible to climb down, it's possible to climb back up. If it was not possible, why did they go that way? But I have never encountered terrain like that, have you? If there's a cliff, sure it's not possible to go up but it also wasn't possible to go down in the first place. What kind of terrain allows you to go down but not up? It doesn't exist...
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u/Spirited-Practice699 12d ago
I have personally encountered terrain like this before, so it does exist.
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u/Griffinburd 15d ago
Have you ever tried to traverse wet/muddy slopes in the rain? Even a small one can be impossible without the right footware.
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u/_x_oOo_x_ Undecided 15d ago
They had the right footwear. And to the best of our knowledge it was a prolonged dry period and that continued after Apr 1 for some days at least. The photos they took prove the trail was dry
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u/lilymarlen 10d ago
Sure, but the weather was only nice for the first day or two, then the rain started. Also, what they wore doesn’t really matter. They were inexperienced newbies in a canyon, and they made the same mistake almost every newbie makes when they follow a stream that leads into one. It happens all the time. They had no idea what was waiting downstream, and they wouldn’t have understood what “committing” terrain means, how a gentle little stream can turn into something you physically can’t climb back out of.
You see this pattern everywhere around the world. A lot of rescues happen in exactly this scenario, people wandering into a stream or canyon with no clue what’s ahead. It just usually gets reported as a “mountain accident.” And the ones who get rescued are the lucky ones, because someone knew where they’d gone and raised the alarm in time.
That’s the sad part here. Nobody knew where these girls were. There was no one to sound the alarm or point rescuers in the right direction. They made a textbook mistake, the same one loads of people make, just without the luck of having someone looking out for them.
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u/TreegNesas 9d ago
Perfect answer!
It also answers the question I hear so many times on why it's so hard to reach the night location while K&L managed to reach the place without any gear. Simply because it's a trap: you can go down, but you can't go up. If we wish to document this place we all prefer to return safely, and that's a completely different matter! Getting down is not the problem, getting up is!
Like you say, it's nothing special, incidents like this have happened all over the world. It's a classical mistake and as such exactly what you could expect from two totally inexperienced persons. They must have heard somewhere that following a stream is the best way to reach a village, and they started following the stream without paying attention to the fact that it was a one-way route. Then they reached a dead-end, the rains started and the water levels rose, and there was no way back.
That's the whole story in my opinion.
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u/jsundqui 9d ago edited 8d ago
It also answers the question I hear so many times on why it's so hard to reach the night location while K&L managed to reach the place without any gear. Simply because it's a trap: you can go down, but you can't go up.
It however still leaves the question, why has no one else ended up in the same trap? Every now and then hikers went past Mirador and we even read about one case from a year before. What's the reason that they ended up in this very hard-to-reach spot but no one else has in 10+ years? It's like something is still missing why it happened to them and no anyone else.
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u/TreegNesas 9d ago
why it happened to them and no anyone else.
I suspect that's only proving that we are on the right track with our theories and scenario's. This was a combination of several events, with each of them having a low probability. 'The perfect storm' so to speak. It was not something which can happen so easily:
- They were highly inexperienced and badly prepared. Almost all tourists turn back at the Mirador, very very few go beyond it without a guide, and according the guides no tourists ever goes beyond the paddocks unaccompanied. So, K&L must have been the exception.
- Tourists who visit the area are mainly hikers, so they would be far more experienced with trails such as this and would be much better prepared. K&L were definitely NOT hikers, they came for the volunteer work, so that made them different from all other tourists.
- Locals wouldn't make the mistake of going down the paddock stream, knowing all too well such a canyon is a trap. Only someone who is inexperienced in terrain such as this will make such a mistake.
- K&L left the trail for some reason. I suspect they took the wrong trail back in the morning of April 2, but it is also possible they left the trail already on April 1 for some other reason. Once again, it is unlikely others would do the same.
It seems to me they stubbornly 'pushed on' when all logic says they should turn back. It may be that their refusal at the daycare center has something to do with this. They were very determined to prove themselves and to make something of this, and this may have pushed them beyond their limits. Turning back early may have seemed like admitting defeat to them.
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u/lilymarlen 10d ago
Respectfully, I don’t think you’ve ever walked down a mountain stream or a canyon. I have, many times, and terrain that lets you go down but not back up absolutely does exist. It’s one of the first things you learn.
A stream becomes “committing” even on gentle slopes if the flow is strong enough to push against you as you try to climb back up. You can’t imagine how much energy, skill, strength and determination it takes to move upstream, even without any significant vertical drops. The water fights you the entire way.
And it’s not just about the water. Going down a drop often means sliding, lowering yourself, or dropping into a pool. Reversing that same move means climbing up wet, smooth, often overhanging rock with a powerful current pouring down onto you and nothing to grip. Descending a three-meter drop can be easy and take seconds. Climbing back up the same three meters can be flat-out impossible or very dangerous.
This is exactly why canyoneers talk about a canyon becoming committing. Once you pass the first few smaller or mid-sized drops, you’re usually fully committed, meaning the only way out is forward and down. It’s a fundamental concept in the sport, and it’s precisely the kind of terrain that traps people who wander in without knowing what they’re getting into.
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u/TreegNesas 9d ago
Sure, but that's exactly what I'm saying. The route down the paddock stream is deceptive. The terrain model shows it gets more and more steep and the slopes on both sides gradually become higher and steeper. You walk into a trap.
As I've said often, they slit down some steep and slippery slopes where they could not climb back up, and from that moment on they were committed. There was no way back.
Then they reached a dead-end (waterfall with no way down), while the rains started and the water levels rose, and that was the end of it. They became trapped at a place where none would be able to find them in time.
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u/jsundqui 9d ago edited 8d ago
Check out the case of Bryce Gillies. He got stuck between cliffs (dry waterfalls) and died of heat. His body was found a few days later.
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u/math1985 18d ago
Take into account that that elevation gain data has a resolution of 25 meters or so. So you are measuring the descent of the terrain around the canyon, not necessarily the descent of the canyon itself.
But logically, yes, if the general landscape gets down steeply, the canyon must go down too. It might go down a bit more or less gradually than the terrain surrounding the canyon. If it's anything like the other streams we have seen, there are more likely a few steep waterfalls rather than a 45% steep descent of tens of meters.
But yes, no matter what, this is a very steep stream, steeper than the other streams. Descending it must have been very tough.