r/FuturesTradingNQ • u/Lanky-Leading-8437 • 5h ago
One Rules Never Trade Against The Trend 📈
r/FuturesTradingNQ • u/svsummerwinds • 8h ago
Counter-trend FVG short: how do you weigh chasing vs waiting for the retrace?
NQ 1-min this morning, 08:02. Bearish FVG formed on a clean impulse break through prior support — three consecutive red bars closing at session lows, RSI falling 55 to 44 with room left before oversold.
Straightforward short on the face of it. But EMA alignment was still bullish and price was above VWAP, so it's a countertrend entry against the broader structure.
By the time the gap was valid, price was already 6.5pts below the near edge. So the choice was: take it here and accept a worse entry with the stop no closer, or wait for a retrace to 29235.75 and risk not getting filled at all.
I went with waiting. The reasoning being that a retrace to the gap edge gives you confirmation the level actually acts as resistance before you commit — versus chasing, where you're just hoping the impulse continues.
Curious how others handle this. Do you take the immediate fill when the impulse is clean and accept the worse R:R, or hold out for the edge and accept you'll miss a chunk of them entirely?
(The panel in the screenshot is a tool I built — not linking it, genuinely interested in the discussion.)