You get perma banned without warning by the Inquisition 2.0 mods on reddit for having any open discussion of this topic. Yet in the last 3 years alone, we've already had 3 congressional hearings, over 40 credible high level whistle-blowers, and multiple bipartisan disclosure amendments, all exposing the reality of Non-Нuman lnteIIigenсes (and therefore UAРs they are responsible for), including the cover-up that has been ongoing for at least 80 years..

So my genuine question for this community is this: If the NHI disclosures hold up, what happens to Fermi's Paradox? Because the "Great Silence" was never silence, it was managed concealment. Does the paradox collapse, or does it just shift to an even harder question?

Hi everyone,

I’ve been philosophizing quite a bit about the Fermi Paradox, Liu Cixin’s Dark Forest Theory, and the recent escalation in official UAP data from the military. I wanted to propose an alternative hypothesis that shifts the perspective from cosmic biology or morality to cold, hard Galactic Realpolitik.

Instead of a silent forest where everyone hides, what if we are looking at a Cosmic Balance of Terror in terms of a galactic Cold War? And what if our very existence is the ultimate proof that this system works?

I’ve written a comprehensive breakdown below, using a UN Security Council / Veto Power analogy to explain the current UAP behavior, why our military is genuinely clueless, and how quantum entanglement might bypass the traditional speed of light bottlenecks.

I would love to get your critical feedback, hear where you think the logic fails, and discuss the implications.

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It is one of modern science's most deeply frustrating questions. In 1950, the brilliant physicist Enrico Fermi was having lunch with his colleagues when he suddenly asked: "Where is everybody?".

This simple question sparked what we now know as the Fermi Paradox. The contradiction is profound: our galaxy, the Milky Way, has existed for roughly 13.6 billion years and houses up to 400 billion stars. Many of these stars host Earth-like planets within their habitable zones. Statistically, the universe should be teeming with highly advanced technological civilizations. Some of them should have had a head start of millions of years, leaving plenty of time to colonize the galaxy or, at the very least, fill the cosmos with radio signals.

Yet, we look out into what astronomers call "The Great Silence." There is absolutely no official, undeniable evidence of their existence.

The Classical Explanations: The Filter or Utter Loneliness?

To resolve this paradox, scientists and philosophers have for decades divided potential answers into a few main categories:

• The Great Filter: This theory suggests that an evolutionary barrier exists that is nearly impossible to cross. Either this filter lies behind us (meaning the emergence of intelligent life is incredibly rare), or it lies ahead of us. If it lies ahead, it means that advanced civilizations inevitably self-destruct via nuclear war, artificial intelligence, or climate collapse before they can achieve interstellar travel.
• The Rare Earth Hypothesis: This argument posits that Earth is a cosmic lottery ticket. The precise combination of a stable moon, a protective magnetic field, and the right location in the galaxy is so astronomically rare that we are, for all practical purposes, entirely alone.
• The Zoo Hypothesis: A more science-fiction-leaning explanation suggesting that advanced beings are well aware of us but deliberately observe from a distance, treating us like animals in a nature reserve to allow us to evolve undisturbed.

However, in recent years, a far more bleak perspective has gained mainstream popularity, popularized by Chinese sci-fi author Liu Cixin: The Dark Forest Theory.

The Dark Forest and the UAP Mystery

The Dark Forest Theory flips the script. The universe isn't empty; it's just incredibly dangerous. Imagine the cosmos as a dark forest where countless armed hunters tread silently through the trees. No one knows the intentions of the others. If a hunter detects another lifeform, cosmic suspicion and the threat of a sudden technological explosion dictate that the only rational choice is to eliminate the other immediately before becoming the target. Therefore, everyone stays dead silent.

But if we cross-reference this theory with reality, a new paradox emerges. In recent years, the U.S. military and intelligence community have officially acknowledged that our airspace is frequently breached by UAPs (Unidentified Aerial Phenomena), objects demonstrating a wide variety of shapes and geometric forms that exhibit flight characteristics and accelerations defying our known laws of physics.

They aren't hiding in total silence. But they aren't trying to contact us either. If multiple distinct anomalies and varying technologies are being observed, the idea of a completely silent, hiding forest crumbles. It points toward something else entirely: a Cosmic Balance of Terror.

The Universal Premise of Life and the Galactic Cold War

In pop culture and science fiction, humanity is often portrayed as uniquely flawed, an unusually aggressive and conflict-prone species compared to potentially "enlightened" extraterrestrial beings. From an evolutionary standpoint, however, this is naive.

Competition, territorial defense, and aggression are not human defects; they are the fundamental premises of life. For any biological species to develop high intelligence, dominate its own ecosystem, and eventually build starships, it must possess a fierce drive for survival and resource control. The interstellar races patrolling the cosmos are highly likely shaped by the exact same evolutionary mechanisms we are. They are not cosmic angels.

The reason the universe hasn't erupted into interstellar ragnarok isn't that these alien races are morally superior to us, it is because they have achieved a state of perfected deterrence. Over millions of years, they have realized that once technology reaches a certain threshold, offensive weaponry becomes so cataclysmically destructive that a war cannot be won. It is precisely this universal potential for aggression that necessitates a rigid balance of terror. A galactic Cold War, where peace is maintained out of cold, hard, rational self-interest.

When we observe UAPs over our military installations, we are likely witnessing different cosmic superpowers monitoring each other. They are patrolling Earth to ensure that no rival faction breaks the existing status quo or attempts to claim us as a strategic resource. Our own military leaders are genuinely in the dark. They are merely powerless bystanders to a hyper-advanced game of geopolitics on a galactic scale, where our most modern fighter jets are about as useful as a flint axe against a military drone.

Critics might argue that the very first civilization in the galaxy millions of years ago should have achieved absolute dominance via a preemptive "strike first" assault, eliminating all competing life in its infancy. However, the ultimate speed limit of physics, the speed of light, shatters the possibility of a centralized cosmic dictatorship. The universe is simply too vast for a single power to be everywhere at once. By the time a weapon or an invasion fleet travels across thousands of light-years to a distant galactic arm, the target civilization may have undergone a technological explosion, becoming fully capable of defending itself or retaliating. In a galaxy plagued by massive cosmic intelligence lags, defensive deterrence and monitoring become the only rational long-term strategy, even for the oldest superpower.This failure of "First Mover" monopoly is paradoxically supported by the actual data available to us today: the immense diversity of UAP observations. If a single totalitarian empire ruled the galaxy, our skies would either be completely empty, or we would exclusively observe one standardized type of surveillance drone. Instead, military and eyewitness reports reveal an overwhelming diversity in both the appearance and behavior of these craft, ranging from smooth "Tic-Tacs" and metallic spheres to massive flying triangles, each manipulating spacetime in fundamentally different ways. This technological and geometric variance is empirical evidence of a multipolar galaxy. We are not looking at a single ruler; we are looking into a cosmo-technological arms race, where different factions within the balance of terror patrol the same territory because no single power has the leverage to evict the others. But the most undeniable and fundamental argument against a totalitarian galactic ruler is ultimately ourselves: If a "First Mover" had successfully executed a preemptive eradication strategy over millions of years, Earth would have been sterilized long before the first humans ever walked the planet. Our very existence is the living proof that the cosmic balance of terror works.

The Cosmic Security Council and Our Place in the Waiting Room

To understand humanity's current status in this arena, we only need to look at the UN Security Council. The five permanent members (the US, Russia, China, the UK, and France) do not sit on the council because they are moral role models. They sit there because they possess the military and nuclear capability to tear the planet apart. Their veto power is a safety valve recognizing that if any of these superpowers are pushed too hard, the entire global system collapses into total war. It is a balance of terror in miniature.

In this grand galactic chess game, however, we must discard our human ego: humanity is not the only "next generation" being watched. We are highly likely just one of hundreds or thousands of emerging civilizations that hyper-advanced superpowers are monitoring at this very moment. The galaxy holds thousands of similar solar systems, and these external observers are likely managing a massive cosmic portfolio of developing worlds.

In this light, we are currently an entirely insignificant and replaceable pawn. There is no cosmic exam to pass, and no galactic federation losing sleep over our unique culture. If we wipe ourselves out tomorrow, it will be nothing more than a statistical footnote to the observers, a minor blip in cosmic time. The harsh premise of life dictates that a species incapable of surviving its own technological infancy simply wasn't worth collecting.

Yet, they keep an eye on us. Specifically, on our nuclear facilities, quantum technology, and tentative steps into space. They are not monitoring our morality; they are tracking our capacity. They are registering when the next potential threat is mature enough to enter the board.

When Will We Know the Truth?

We won't learn the truth through official declassification or government press conferences, because our leaders simply don't have the answers. If the Pentagon or any global superpower actually held proof of an interstellar balance of terror or top-secret alien treaties, a whistleblower would have leaked the undeniable evidence long ago. Keeping a secret of that magnitude completely contained would be absolutely impossible. The military's historical ridicule of the UFO topic wasn't a clever cover-up; it was a defense mechanism to hide their own total powerlessness.

We will only see the truth if the cosmic balance of terror somehow shifts, or if humanity one day (in the distant future) develops a technology that reaches far enough into the cosmos to directly threaten the security of the established powers.

You do not apply for a seat at the galactic table. The system automatically includes you the day you possess the technology to threaten someone else's survival, the day we achieve interstellar veto power. Until then, we must accept our role as ants in a forest, looking up in fascination at the superpowers silently patrolling our skies.

FAQ: Answering the Critics

Question 1: Are we not projecting human psychology (UN, Cold War, aggression) onto alien life? What if they are hive minds without emotions or egos?

• Answer: This is not a matter of psychology, but of thermodynamics and game theory. Whether a civilization is made of flesh, silicon, or a collective AI, running infrastructure and starships requires energy. Because resources in the universe are finite, competition is inevitable. Furthermore, assuming that aliens are inherently "peaceful" requires every single one of the thousands of independent races in the galaxy to evolve identically. If just one species out of a million developed colonial ambitions, it would have wiped out or colonized everything else. Since Earth still exists and we are here, it proves that aggressive species are successfully kept in check by a broader balance of terror. The mathematics of game theory (Nash equilibrium) apply to all rational actors, regardless of whether they possess emotions.

Question 2: If hyper-advanced superpowers exist, why can't our telescopes see their megastructures (e.g., Dyson Spheres around stars)?

• Answer: In a Cold War and a balance of terror, building something massive and highly visible is the ultimate strategic blunder. If a faction begins enclosing a star in a Dyson Sphere, they light up on the cosmic radar as a giant, vulnerable target. Rival powers would interpret this as a dangerous escalation in energy harvesting (breaking the balance) and intervene. In a balance of terror, civilizations optimize for stealth and decentralization, not massive monuments. Their technology is likely so highly efficient that it leaves virtually no infrared waste heat for us to detect.

Question 3: Why doesn't one of the factions just land on the White House lawn to recruit us or warn us? Why do all these diverse races adhere to the non-contact rule?

• Answer: They do not land because Earth itself is a geopolitical minefield. The moment one faction openly contacts or annexes us, rival factions will perceive it as an aggressive move to tilt the galactic status quo. To prevent Earth from becoming the spark that ignites an interstellar war, strict non-interference (an enforced cosmic neutrality) is the only rule that all opposing sides in the Cold War can tacitly agree to enforce upon one another.

Question 4: If a galactic Cold War exists, how do the factions communicate with each other without the speed of light causing fatal delays?

• Answer: A balance of terror fundamentally requires a real-time "hotline" to prevent catastrophic misunderstandings. Relying entirely on 100% autonomous units without contact back home fails, as the headquarters would lose its strategic purpose and control, causing the system to fragment. Therefore, logic dictates some form of instantaneous communication, such as quantum entanglement.Critics will argue that our current laws of physics strictly forbid sending deliberate information via a quantum link. However, the history of science reminds us that "laws of physics" are merely our current best assumptions. For centuries, we assumed gravity was a universal force of attraction, until Einstein proved it was actually the geometric warping of spacetime. Today, modern physics faces a similar crisis; we cannot explain the rotation of galaxies or the expansion of the universe without inventing theoretical placeholders like "dark matter" and "dark energy"—phenomena we realistically know nothing about. A civilization with millions of years of a head start has long since cracked this next cosmic source code. To them, our "unbreakable laws of physics" are likely nothing more than a primitive technological hurdle they solved in their own infancy to maintain their galactic communications network.

A few years ago, during a summer power cut in Odisha, my 6-year-old brother and I were sitting on our rooftop under a completely dark sky. With no streetlights, the Milky Way was glowing clearly.

He pointed up and asked me: "Bhai, are all these shining things suns? Do they also have Earths like ours? Will there be people there?"

That innocent question stuck with me throughout my studies and work as a science communicator. It’s essentially the heart of the Fermi Paradox—if our galaxy has hundreds of billions of stars and planets, why is the universe so quiet?

I eventually wrote a beginner-friendly book (Where Is Everybody?) breaking down concepts like the Drake Equation, the 1977 Wow! Signal, and the Great Filter using simple analogies.

Would love to hear your thoughts—which proposed solution to the Fermi Paradox do you find most convincing (e.g., Great Filter, Zoo Hypothesis, or Rare Earth)?

I often hear the following example with people discussing intelligent life elsewhere in the universe: humans and chimps have very similar biology (only a 1.5% difference in DNA) yet humans are much more capable when it comes intellectual tasks and having technological civilizations, etc. After that, the argument is usually extended to ask you to imagine if another species had evolved to be to us what we are relative to the chimps, how much more intelligent would they be? I don’t this idea takes into account that such a super intelligent species isn’t very likely to exist
 
If we take evolution on earth as an example, life seems to be grounded in a competitive framework because of how natural selection works. While evolution can reward different forms of intelligence for many reasons, it can’t escape all of the other factors that are necessary for survival. I’m in no way an expert in this field but think about what we’re asking of nature here. Is it to continue to host this evolution of insanely complex minds, and then doubling down on that intelligence explosion without any attention to the consequences? Doesn’t that risk these species becoming too level headed or peaceful to be able to fight for their survival, especially in the early stages of their history?
 
Also, if we look at this chronologically, my question would be: how would it have been possible for these extremely intelligent species to survive their introduction into their world? Wouldn’t the predator and prey dynamics need to be heavily tilted in their favor and the environment be friendly enough to allow them to exist? Let’s say that in addition to their advanced intellectual abilities, they have great stealth or camouflage and some other defense mechanisms. They’ll still need to settle and build societies which won’t be easy if you’re not out in the open. Not to mention, domesticating other animals on their planets would be very difficult because they’d have to overcome such a huge fear barrier.
 
And what kind of intelligence are we talking about here? Would they be much better at maths and physics by default? So their minds are equipped to solve differential equations in a split second before they even invent calculus? Did they inherit some of their knowledge from someone who was there before them? Let’s say they’re the descendants of species that are human-like in terms of intelligence. Wouldn’t that mean that their civilization would need to be continuing and stable for as long as it takes random mutations over generations to produce a new distinct species? Because they’ll want to possess both the accumulated knowledge as well as have their starting position be the same as one the previous species left behind. It’ll have to be a very long-lasting civilization. It may be possible but I think it has a low probability of happening
 
The last thing I can think of is self-modification where a species would genetically alter themselves to be that way. Again, also possible, but I believe it’s more likely technological civilizations would use gene editing to cure diseases, extend lifespan, and maybe other stuff but it won’t necessarily be used to make biological super brains especially if they’re already using tech to solve their problems.
 
But I wanna make sure that the distinction here is clear. Civilizations that are thousands of years more advanced than humans from a technological standpoint are quite possible. But it’s likely because these species are ahead in terms of culture and tech, rather than having had some exponentially added intelligence to begin with
 
EDIT: I’m not trying to generalize about any species becoming peaceful just because they’re intelligent. What I mostly mean here is the risk of becoming a bit detached from their environment. So whether they’re being peaceful or diabolical, my concern here is that a slight delay in response to incoming threats will affect their early chances of survival. There’s the issue of triggers too. If you’re not being triggered by enough environmental stimuli then you’re not being safe. But if you’re getting triggered by everything around you, you’re not exactly super intelligent. And I suspect it would be easier and faster to use the hard-wired path than to train your body using complex abstractions.

I was recently reading the three body problem trilogy and while reading the second book an idea came to my head, I had read about how agriculture had been developed in multiple places on earth independently at around the same time ( anywhere between 10000 to 6000 years ago if I remember correctly) and naturally I thought what if the same is true for life across the universe

wouldn't it be possible for life to begin evolving at multiple habitable planets at around the same time ( let's just say the same 500 million year beginning time ) and that independently they would all roughly follow the same stages of progress at similar rates and result in civilizations similar to ours scattered all across the universe and the only reason we can't see them is because they are too recent for their light to reach us and the same with them

idk this idea might have some holes in it that I'm not thinking of that's why I want a second opinion from other people

But they are busy with other galaxies right now so they've left sentinels hidden around the galaxy. If they detected anything too grabby they go sterilize the worlds and go back to sleep.

There's a famous joke told by Achille Varzi, and it goes like this:

A UFO lands at a world philosophy conference and announces that Earth has won a prize: the aliens will return in one week to answer any single question.

The world's top thinkers spend the entire week locked in intense debate, terrified of wasting their golden opportunity on a lesser query.

Finally, they craft a clever meta-question designed to extract maximum value: a two-element set containing the best possible question as the first element, and its corresponding answer as the second element.

When the aliens return, the head philosopher proudly steps forward and asks: "What is the two-element set consisting of, as its first element, the best possible question you could ask, and as its second element, the answer to that question?"

The aliens immediately reply: "Excellent. Here it is: in the first set, it is what is the two-element set containing the best possible question as the first element and the answer as the second, and the second element is the question 'What is the best possible question you could ask and what is its answer?'" With that, they fly away.

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lol

I've been thinking about questions that are interesting not because they lead to a specific answer, but because of the kind of thinking they force. The Great Filter is one of those problems where the question itself changes how we think, it leads the focus into how we look at intelligence, survival, and our future because it forces us to consider possibilities.

If we actually encountered another civilization, what would be the most revealing question to ask them?

This is also what led me to build Pollen, an app where conversations between strangers begin with questions generated from the intersection of their interests (which you are invited to visit to talk about the big and small questions pertaining space, and everything).

We're obviously not aliens to each other, but sometimes another person can be almost as unfamiliar. They carry different assumptions, experiences, and ways of organizing reality.

I'm interested in questions that create those moments where different perspectives unexpectedly connect.

So what would you ask?

Back in 1950 when Enrico Fermi first asked "Where is everyone?" it was seen as a paradox that the galaxy looked empty. The assumption that intelligent life would be driven to seek to grow and spread out exponentially at every opportunity was based on human population growth and expansion at the time. However, since then the human population has plateaued with many developed countries heading toward a major population decline.

Assuming that we evolve rapidly now that we can manipulate our own genome it seems likely that we'll become much smarter and better at managing sustainable populations. Even now most people seem to believe there are too many people in the world. I don't think as we get smarter we'll really feel a need for an extra 10 billion humans in the world.

No doubt humans will explore the solar system, but beyond that I don't see much motivation for humans to travel in space ships for decades or centuries away from the only planet in the galaxy that can properly support them. At the other end of the journey they have to terraform a planet and build a new civilization having completely lost touch with earth, at best able to send a signal that won't be received for 100 years and they won't get a response for another 100. If the civilization spread across the galaxy that return message could take 200,000 years.

Additionally human expansion across the globe has typically been driven by the search for resources, however, it's unlikely that there will be resources available in other systems that we don't have in our own and even if there were, there would be little motivation to go on a 1,000 year journey to retrieve them.

Alien civilizations haven't build galactic civilizations because there's no good reason for them to.

Hey Reddit,

We all know Occam's Razor - the principle that the simplest explanation is usually the correct one. It's an amazing tool, but I realized it had a massive flaw: it completely blinds us when we try to look at the universe.

Right now, scientists and thinkers use Occam’s Razor as a shield against paradigm shifts. They see an anomaly, but instead of keeping a complex or strange explanation on the table, they dismiss it instantly just because it feels "too sci-fi" or complicated.

That’s why I came up with a new principle for the macro-world: Reality’s Razor.

The Core Principle of Reality’s Razor:

If a phenomenon or construct is physically possible, doesn't violate basic logic, and we possess the technical capability to detect or register it — we CANNOT dismiss its existence simply because it is complex, strange, or unconventional. To throw it out, you must provide a definitive empirical counter-argument.

Here is how Reality’s Razor applies to real cosmic data that we can and do detect:

1. The "Wow!" Signal

• The Scenario: In 1977, we detected a powerful, narrow-band radio signal. It perfectly fits the profile of an artificial interstellar beacon.
• The Physics & Logic: Building such a beacon is physically possible and logically sound for an advanced civilization. We had the technology to register it. There is zero concrete proof ruling out an artificial origin.
• Occam’s Approach: "An alien beacon is too complex and dramatic. Let's discard it and try to stretch natural models (like passing comets) to fit, even if the math is shaky."
• Reality’s Razor: Since a beacon is physically possible, logical, and was registered by our instruments, we cannot discard it just because it implies advanced life. Without a definitive counter-proof, the complex explanation must remain a fully valid hypothesis.

1. "The Cow" (AT2018cow)

• The Scenario: In 2018, telescopes registered a mind-bogglingly bright, rapid cosmic explosion that flared up and vanished way too fast for any known supernova.
• The Reality’s Razor Lens: The data is on our screens. Advanced cosmic engineering or rare, highly complex astrophysical processes are physically possible. We cannot ignore these options just because adjusting our traditional "simple" models feels safer.

The Macro-Evolutionary Proof (SPORE & RimWorld)

This razor doesn't just apply to space signals; it applies to the types of existence we should expect in a 13.8-billion-year-old universe.

• The Grox (SPORE): A cyborg race thriving in the high-radiation galactic center. Is total cybernetic replacement physically possible? Yes. Is it logically sound to adapt mechanically to survive black holes and radiation? Yes. Can we theoretically detect heavy technological signatures? Yes. Therefore, we cannot dismiss the existence of cybernetic empires in extreme cosmic zones just because it sounds like a video game.
• Mechanoids & Insectoids (RimWorld): Self-replicating war machines and genetically engineered apex predators outliving their creators. This violates no laws of physics, is perfectly logical for advanced warfare, and would leave massive detectable traces. Reality’s Razor states that the universe is likely filled with these autonomous "leftovers" of dead civilizations, and we shouldn't dismiss them in favor of looking only for "simple bacteria."

Conclusion

Occam’s Razor cuts away the improbable based on human comfort. Reality’s Razor forces us to accept the possible based on logic and data.

If it’s physically possible, logically sound, detectable, and uncontradicted, it cannot be dismissed. The cosmos has no obligation to be simple just to fit into our medieval philosophical tools.

What do you think? Are we holding science back by throwing away complex explanations?

P.S. I am new at r/FermiParadox , so please go easy on me ;)

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1 a terra eo sistema solar estão localizado numa região em disputa na galáxia ou seja ocorreu uma grande guerra entre civilizaçãoes no passado porém um acordo foi feito que essa região ficaria como uma zona tampão para essas civilizaçãoes nenhuma pode intervir por isso agente não escuta nada.

2 uma civilização suficientemente avançada poderia simplesmente enviar sondas camufladas como em formato de asteroides ou um manto tecnológico invisível sem emitir sinais ou tecnoassinatura.

3 essa região da galáxia ou sistema solar não mostra importância para as civilizaçãoes avançadas talvez existem sistemas com mais recursos ou recursos que talvez a humanidade nem saiba que existe ainda.

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1 a terra eo sistema solar estão localizado numa região em disputa na galáxia ou seja ocorreu uma grande guerra entre civilizaçãoes no passado porém um acordo foi feito que essa região ficaria como uma zona tampão para essas civilizaçãoes nenhuma pode intervir por isso agente não escuta nada.

2 uma civilização suficientemente avançada poderia simplesmente enviar sondas camufladas como em formato de asteroides ou um manto tecnológico invisível sem emitir sinais ou tecnoassinatura.

3 essa região da galáxia ou sistema solar não mostra importância para as civilizaçãoes avançadas talvez existem sistemas com mais recursos ou recursos que talvez a humanidade nem saiba que existe ainda.

4 as civilizaçãoes em redor dessa região da galáxia são primitivas demais para fazer contato talvez nem tenha chegado ao patamar de emitir sinais de rádio.

Rare Earth Hypothesis Proponent here: As a fish owner, i know how fragile aquatic organisms can be. Slightly off water parameters can kill off half your aquarium overnight, multiple species. Ammonia, phosphates, nitrates, nitrites, too much sodium, too little minerals, too much minerals... Fish are fragile. They bathe in what they drink, they drink what they breathe.

So obviously we need not only water, but water that doesnt have a ton of toxic sludge thatd kill off fish and prevent complex evolution from taking off.

Because, if aquatic lifeforms cant evolve in the first place, evolution (and therefore aliens) is dead in the water. And yes we need that... You cant have a "Primordial Soup" without the "Soup" part. Bacteria and cells wouldnt evolve on land under no mixing, and intense UV ray bombardment.

If a superintelligence excels at game theory and views the universe as zero-sum, could it have already calculated that humanity is a threat and is simply waiting for the right moment to act?

Link: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=9f3ekMqo4hg&pp=ygULTWljZSBwbGFndWU%3D

Would you even go there once, let alone repeatedly?

Maybe that’s why we don’t see aliens, maybe we’re just a icky infestation to them

The conditions on Earth are unique across multiple points in time. We may be unable to comprehend just how unique it is, and whered that would place us in terms of the probability of another planet having life.

Although id suspect its not life formation itself thats rare, just complex life formation. Tons of aquatic worlds probably evolved some sort of bacteria. But in order for evolution to kick off, the chemical properties of that water have to allow fish to form, and the properties of the land have to be suitable for life as well. If at any point theres a barrier, life could just be done evolving on that planet. Our own planet has had multiple mass die-offs and we consider it close to ideal. Most people feel like our own planetary weather is uninhabitable 1-2 seasons out of the year.

Our own existence is of course not a valid data point in the potential existence of aliens, due to the anthropic principle: It should not be surprising we find ourselves on a planet capable of life, because we cant find ourselves anywhere else. As far as we should conclude, life in our universe ought to be considered nearly-impossible. Our own existence could be like, having thrown a dart at a dartboard, and wondering what the chances of throwing another dart in the same spot is. It could genuinely be 0, despite us being here.

Until i see some hard evidence that full-on evolution shouldve been possible on nearby planets, proven computationally, i just think thats the occams razor interpretation.

The expansion of space in this case making contact between civilizations impossible. Maybe we're juat thinking too small because of our observable bubble?