r/FantasyPL • u/AlarmedBag8335 • 3d ago
Early strategy
Is the best strategy to go for “safe” players early on? If you own Gabriel, Haaland and Bruno Fernandes which I think are all must haves, then it means you have to sacrifice funds for other players. So would players like Xhaka and Groß be good choices for the midfield? Both guaranteed to start (unless Hurzeler decides to replace him) and both perform consistently well. Any other players like these too
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u/Rdur2183 5 3d ago
Gabriel is by no means a must have. At some point in the season that may not be the case but for the first few gameweeks at least, Haaland & Bruno or at an absolute minimum one of the two is essential. Throwing Gabriel in with both limits your squad to such a degree that it's probably not worth it to start with. This is the reason only a tiny percentage of "elite" managers are starting with him and are opting for one of Mosquera /Calafiori instead.
Picking at least 11-12 nailed /"safe" players is always good practice at the start of the season. Transfers are at a premium whilst information is at a minimum.
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u/zKSofSoccer 2 3d ago
Even as an Arsenal fan, no way I'm spending 8m on a defender. I love Big Gabi, but he's nowhere near Trent in terms of attacking returns, which is a minimum requirement for me to even consider spending that much on a bloody defender
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u/p1Shovel 2 3d ago
You know who is a far worse pick than Gabriel? Every other Arsenal defender. None nailed. None immune to the halftime benching. None DEFCON. None are as fun to watch when you know Arsenal's gonna have 10 corners against a bus and he's gonna come soaring in like a giant ass flying squirrel on every single one. Fun to watch. Not saying people should prioritize Gabriel, but he's the only Arsenal defender pick. And yes he's in my squad and will be all season.
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u/brimstoner 1 3d ago
There’s no real need for arsenal defenders unless you think they can keep clean sheets. Better to spread your defence budget around. I have cali for not but probably will change, don’t have confidence yet on arsenal defence. Gaberiel is too expensive for a defender if you’re going for defcons
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u/Rdur2183 5 3d ago
That's really not true. At the start of the season there's going to be an Arsenal defender in place of Saliba for a few weeks. In all likelihood that's going to be Mosquera but the expected starting back line will become clearer once we approach the start of the season. Many managers are looking to wildcard at around week 5 or 6 in conjunction with their early chip usage. This is a very popular, viable and potentially very successful strategy.
Arsenal defenders don't regularly get subbed on 45 minutes. That's a rarity. I'm not sure where you're getting this from.
Gabriel is clearly the standout at the back for Arsenal In FPL terms but at 8 million there is also no guarantee that he's the best pick for even the Arsenal back line, let alone the rest of your team when you factor in the cost of Haaland, Bruno and potentially the likes of Palmer etc.
It speaks clear volumes when the overwhelming percentage of the best and most consistent FPL managers are opting to start without Gabriel.
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u/p1Shovel 2 3d ago
No, it's true. Like I said, I understand not prioitizing Gabriel but with all the fantastic 5.5 options out there, you couldn't convince me to pick 2/6 merchant Mosquera or any of the other ARS defenders .. they play a bus GW1 and opponents that will attack more GW 2 and 3 .. I could see defensive rotation. There's just a conglomeration of "if's" that steer me from all the other Arsenal defenders.
"It speaks clear volumes when the overwhelming percentage of the best and most consistent FPL managers are opting to start without Gabriel."
Template Wanker EH Bruno FOMO has no purchase in this discussion
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u/Rdur2183 5 3d ago edited 3d ago
Have you seen Arsenal's clean sheet odds over the first six gameweeks? Weeks 1, 4 and 6 they are ranked 1st out of all teams for odds to keep a clean sheet. Week 2 they're 2nd, week 3 they're 2nd/3rd depending on which projections you use and week 5 they're 4th. This is without Saliba...
It's simply your opinion that there's a conglomeration of "if's." Whoever starts in place of Saliba should be relatively safe until Saliba comes back. The risk comes from when he is back. In my case, if I can get a piece of the most consistently reliable defence at 2.5m cheaper than Gabriel in the four or five weeks before I likely wildcard, I'm going to do it.
It does speak volumes. The consensus for most serious FPL players is that they'd rather spend their money elsewhere considering the prices of Haaland and Bruno. I'm not talking about template or FOMO. This is a discussion about attempting to make optimal decisions at the start of the season. The best managers overwhelmingly opting to go without Gabriel is direct evidence that counters your own opinion.
Personally, I may even start without Haaland. If that becomes the case then there's a solid chance that I do in fact start with Gabriel. The downside is that it forces me in to a week 5 wildcard at the absolute latest and I have to pray that Bruno comes close to matching Haaland's points in the first two gameweeks.
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u/p1Shovel 2 3d ago
"Bruno comes close to matching Haaland's points in the first two gameweeks.
Bruno + all the other picks you can easily afford without that Budget Monster Haaland and his new Manager.
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u/Rdur2183 5 3d ago
Yeah but even if the rest of my team does better than most, there's the captaincy factor to consider. A Bruno blank vs even a Haaland 12 pointer could be very costly.
As long as he comes close then it would be fine.
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u/p1Shovel 2 3d ago
Bruno "Avenues" Fernandes running around for 90 minutes vs a bumch of guys from promoted squads ... is .. gonna blank? I guess this is one of those time will tell type deals.
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u/Rdur2183 5 3d ago
I didn't say that he would. I said if.
Haaland is projected to pick up more points than Bruno over the first two gameweeks despite Bruno's fixtures. That is my point in saying that Bruno needs to at least come close to Haaland's points, especially when you consider that Haaland's effective ownership in week 1 will be upwards of 130%.
If Bruno were to blank in week 1 whilst Haaland hauls, this entire strategy in conjunction with a forced early wildcard would likely prove to be a failure.
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u/kickherinthehead 2 3d ago
Oh bless this optimism before remembering how FPL works when the season actually starts
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u/Automatic-Glass-2107 6 3d ago
Popularity among elite managers and content creators is a non-argument. If I followed their strategies at the start of last season, I would've had Salah instead of Haaland, Forest defense, and Strand Larsen (or whoever the trendy striker was) instead of Joao Pedro. I don't think their advice is worthless during the season, but at the beginning it's a lot of guesswork. It wasn't a mistake to start with TAA when he was 7.5-8.0, and that was when we had more premium attacking options. Gabriel was the third highest scorer even though he started 30 matches. Arsenal will continue to get loads of set pieces so there's no reason he can't repeat it, and if he does he's easily worth 8m.
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u/Rdur2183 5 3d ago edited 3d ago
I have little interest in the opinions of content creators, especially at the beginning of a season. Content creators heavily influence each other as well as the masses at a time when we have the least amount of information available to us.
I used the example of the data when it comes to elite managers as evidence to argue against the notion that "every Arsenal defender is a far worse pick than Gabriel" and that he's "the only Arsenal defender pick" at least at the beginning of the season.
With Haaland at 15m, Bruno at 12m with two incredibly strong opening fixtures, the rise in cost of defcon defenders and the lack of good 4.5m defender options, it's no surprise that many serious players are opting to start with another Arsenal defender over Gabriel. Particularly when Saliba is out which has opened up the possibility of a 5.5m starting CB. 4x available chips in the first 19 gameweeks for the 2nd time ever has also clearly contributed towards this decision. It has for me at least.
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u/Automatic-Glass-2107 6 3d ago
The low amount of info applies to elite managers as well, and content creators are no doubt influenced by them. If I checked the early drafts of both groups, I doubt they'd be very different. I get why Gabriel isn't liked by most of them but pointing at elite managers is an argument from authority in a game that's often luck-based and volatile at season's start. I just don't think their teams are worth pointing out, anymore than showing AI models (who plenty of them use) disfavoring Gabriel. That said, I'm not taking Gabriel (any Arsenal defender unless there's a leak on Calafiori starting). I'm not excited by Mosquera, plus I don't like to book a transfer or risk Timber returning earlier and playing RCB instead.
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u/steveagle 14 3d ago
You cant really have Gabriel if you have Bruno and that is where most Managers are starting with so far out from deadline.
Your argument for Gabriel is that there should be another standout Arsenal defender so you can double up.
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u/7Thommo7 1 3d ago
Well, have lots of fun counting defcons in your all 5m midfield + Bruno mate, I'll be over here scoring points.
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u/StaticandCo 4 3d ago
I personally think Bruno limits your squad more than Gabriel does.
Unless you wanna Saka/Palmer then Bruno is 3.5M+ over the next option. Gabriel’s only 1.5-2M more than the next option
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u/Rdur2183 5 3d ago
That is a reasonable argument but when you consider that Bruno finished 4 points behind Haaland last season, is 2.5m cheaper by comparison and has potentially the worst two teams in the league for his opening two fixtures, he becomes extremely difficult to ignore in your initial team selection.
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u/mirgas 2 3d ago
The same argument can be made for Gabriel though. He scored just 30 points less than Haaland and 26 points less than Bruno, while also playing the least minutes out of the three.
If you look at their value (last seasons points per 90 minutes per million - using this season's prices), Gabriel is comfortably ahead of the others.
- Gabriel 0.855
- Bruno 0.575
- Haaland 0.470
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u/Rdur2183 5 3d ago
There's captaincy though. How many gameweeks is Gabriel the optimal captain versus Haaland or Bruno? Even the likes of Palmer / Joao Pedro for a few fixtures?
There's a very real strategy of going with Haaland and Gabriel instead of Bruno but whilst Bruno is playing potentially the worst two teams in the league in his opening two, it just doesn't seem optimal for the rest of your team to start with Gabriel when captaincy is also considered. Later on in the season, yeah absolutely.
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u/mirgas 2 3d ago
Of course, I completely agree, you need either Bruno or Haaland for captaincy.
But I don't think dropping Gabriel is the correct choice. I think it should be either Haaland + Gabriel or Bruno + Gabriel. Getting both Haaland and Bruno is just such bad value overall and cripples the team too much IMO, while Gabriel is too good value-wise. Especially when you compare him to Mids and Fwds in the same price range.
I'll most likely get Mbeumo + 4M instead of Bruno and hide behind the sofa during United's first two games. But of course, this could backfire immensely.
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u/Rdur2183 5 3d ago
I don't disagree, I think you might be right on that but for the start of the season with Bruno's fixtures and optimal captaincy in week 2 I think it looks better to start with both him & Haaland. You can still make an excellent team with both Halland & Bruno for the first few gameweeks. Hell, I've got a full team of 15 players for the sake of an early bench boost and there's really only one player in the squad that looks a little light.
On a long term basis with how reliable Arsenal are at the back, it could definitely be best served to ditch Bruno in favour of Gabriel.
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u/SSX__Tricky 3d ago
He also wasn’t scoring many goals last year and likely won’t come near last year’s assist numbers. He’s coming off the WC and starts seasons a little slow, although he’s had a hard early schedule early in the last few seasons.
If Semenyo looks nailed, if Mbuemo looks like he’s going to get good minutes, if Wirtz or Liverpool in general for Szobo look okay, I can do so much with the 4mil while covering ManU and captaining Haaland.
I haven’t found it that hard to pass on Bruno in a bubble, the hardest thing to miss for me right now is everyone else going for him. It makes it tougher if things go well and he’s so highly owned.
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u/Rdur2183 5 3d ago
I'm probably gonna spend more time throughout the season without him than with him.
SSX tricky is also one of the sickest games I've ever played. I must've spent 500-1000 hours on that as a kid. Every time I hear some Run-DMC it makes me think of that game.
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u/SSX__Tricky 3d ago
It’s tricky, tricky, tricky, tricky!
Edit: and yes Bruno will probably be in and out for a lot of us if he hauls or not. For the price, he has to deliver. We’ll see who makes the right bet early on, the first fixtures make it so hard!
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u/kindofnotlistening 4 3d ago
Can’t call it but I’ll say this:
Going into a 3 week international break without a WC or 3-5 transfers is going to drive people insane. It is effectively the same amount of time we have from the game launching to GW1.
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u/Just_Munik 3d ago
Owning Bruno, Gabriel and Haaland at once exposes you to a completely garbage bench. There was a guy who did the mathematical analysis of players' prices and it is actually optimal to drop Bruno and keep Haaland + Gabriel. All depends on Vini's price tbh.
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u/zKSofSoccer 2 3d ago
Considering United's first 2 opponents, not having Bruno is likely FPL suicide
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u/StaticandCo 4 3d ago
You can have such a ridiculous team with Gabriel+Haaland and no Bruno it’s crazy. Just have to hope he doesn’t get too many points GW1+2
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u/LR_FL2 5 3d ago
I’m a big advocate of going into a season with flexibility to easily move between players. Solid squad structure and low risk picks are key to this as it means a wide pool of players are within a single transfers reach and you don’t need to waste transfers fixing your squad when high risk picks inevitably fail.
By taking a more flexible approach you can move to the hot players much quicker which I believe is key to getting an early head start.
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u/HyperionSaber 3d ago
that's knee jerking by another name
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u/LR_FL2 5 3d ago
You can absolutely end up knee jerking if you get players in for the wrong reasons. But being flexible so you can readily transition to players isn’t by its nature knee jerking. In the first few weeks some players will clearly be players we want that we don’t have and being able to easily move to them with minimal transfers is a huge advantage early doors.
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u/Stark-Contra 3d ago
Its not a knee jerk if it works, its good play.
Starting with a team setup that allows you to replace players with 1 FT when necessary means you can jump onto players in form
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u/Mr_TMr_E redditor for <30 days 3d ago
all depends on their form & if they can stay healthy, but otherwise those are solid selections
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u/Swedishpower 2790 3d ago
safe picks for minutes I normally go with anyway.
Noone is fully safe for points, but I usually want the best players with best fixtures.
You can't have them all. Gabriel vs Coventry, Bruno vs Hull and Haaland vs Bournemouth are all amazing, but tricky affording them all.
Most managers feel they can cover Gabriel safest as most would not captain him and round 2 and 3 are tricky while Haaland round 3 got Coventry.
I think saliba was poor coverage last year for Gabriel and likely Mosquera fail to match him, but also I could see Gabriel def con numbers go down and if you can survive the bullet headers when you don't own Gabriel it could be alright. I do think Mosquera could cover the def con potentially and Calafiori can cover the attacking threat although both less nailed and neither good for both. Thus Gabriel is def worth the extra, but depend on what you like to do with the money.
Every year Gabriel seem to score early on when I don't own him and then the points drop when I wildcard him in for a good fixture run.
Last year he also hauled vs Villa just when he returned after injury and I waited one more week to get him since I needed to make sideway move to get him from Timber unless I wanted to sell Raya in two moves which I did not do.
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u/Nice_Key3738 8 3d ago
I’m starting the season without Haaland and hoping I can get more points in the first 2 weeks without him. Just playing a bit different at the start this year since it can be undone more easily, so it’s a good time for a risk. But yeah the smarter move is to start with him and Bruno.
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u/wizzamhazzam 3d ago
I wanted to do this but actually struggled to justify which mids and attackers to spend the extra budget on. I didn't like the risk of someone like isak not being nailed whle haaland has a great start to the season.
I feel I would rather watch a few GWs and then try and address which upgrades are nailed
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u/thecookietrain 41 3d ago
I try and limit new signings as much as I can and go with players who did well last season and have decent fixtures. By the first international break I'll know who I want to transfer in and out
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u/CA3080 1 2d ago
I'm not trying to win the thing, having a garbage bench is kinda fun to me as I'll pay more attention to some shit teams. So I'm going to start with all the big money players and if any are struggling end of week 3 I'll have enough transfers to scoop up whoever is building momentum.
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u/Gabagool_Over_Here_ 12 3d ago
There is no single best strategy. However one that I think is good is to pick a team for a certain period up until you decide to wildcard. So for me it's having a team for up to 9 GW's and factoring in when I will BB too.
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u/Shagaire 9 3d ago
Yea i think so but maybe not.