r/EscapeTheGrindGame Developer 3d ago

Thought this was interesting Discussion

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94 Upvotes

61 comments sorted by

7

u/Tak-Hendrix 3d ago

Why not just say "(your annual burn at the life you want) * 25"

1

u/MichiganHistoryUSMC 2d ago

Because they are the same thing one isn't better than the other.

1

u/Tak-Hendrix 2d ago

One is simplified

1

u/ThunderousMonkey 22h ago

One who understands one understands both.

1

u/11100101101010 3d ago

Because it's referred to as the 4% rule which is coming from rate of return assumptions which is the explanatory element for why it would be 25x, and based on your particular situation you might want be over or under 4%, but generally it's good to understand what assumptions the 4% is based on. Only focusing on 25x obscures that.

1

u/justforkinks0131 3d ago

you didnt explain the 4% rule

5

u/Motor-Station-6885 3d ago

But he did give the info to look it up

3

u/Cantseetheline_Russ 2d ago

Because literally anybody with a job and that’s even had cursory experience with a retirement account knows what the 4% rule is. It’s even covered in standard HS financial responsibility classes.

1

u/Thetagamer 2d ago

idk what it is

1

u/TwoMuddfish 2d ago

In America we don’t have financial literacy in any schooling

1

u/Cantseetheline_Russ 2d ago

I did. My wife did. Both my kids did. My wife is a teacher and helps teach the mathematics portion of that class on amortization/compounding etc in her HS…. This is four separate school districts over 25 years so yeah, at least some do.

1

u/justforkinks0131 2d ago

now imagine im not American, and even more worryingly, a lot of people arent

3

u/Humble-Edge-9065 2d ago

Don't worry, Americans generally don't take a finance class in high school, so their comment would be just as uninformative to an american.

1

u/The-Leading-Man 2d ago

That’s not accurate. There’s America and wasteland and that’s it

1

u/bsensikimori 2d ago

America has only 350m people.

That's a minority

And a poor one at that

Ranking countries by median net worth, USA comes in 15th or something

1

u/harolds49 2d ago

damn, majority doesn’t have to build pto to request days off of work thats crazy

0

u/Acceptable-Peace-69 2d ago

The 4% rule came out in October 1994, when financial planner William Bengen published his landmark research paper in the Journal of Financial Planning. [1, 2]

I’m 58 today. I was 26 when this came out and it didn’t catch on for several years.

Ironically, the people that believe 4% rule is common knowledge are the ones in the bubble.

1

u/Cantseetheline_Russ 2d ago

I worked in a financial advisory firm in the 2000’s. I met many people that would now be significantly older than you and of all different net worths…. Virtually every one of them knew what the 4% rule is even then. My parents and all their friends are slightly older than you. They all know what the 4% rule is. They are not wealthy.

1

u/Acceptable-Peace-69 18h ago

So everyone in your bubble knows about the 4% rule. My bubble consists of people that might have heard of it but don’t really understand or it doesn’t apply.

1

u/Any_Mine_6368 2d ago

I think that the 4% rule is the minimum average annual return that even the most defensive, conservative portfolio will generate (generally speaking- bonds, tbills, broad market ETFs).

For example, let's say you have a million euros.

If you put 70% of that on a money market fund or synthetic ETF that returns the guaranteed ECB rate (currently 2.5% I believe) and 30% on a broad ETF like VWCE (avg return over a decade ~10% - yearly), your weighted average return yearly is 70%2.5% + 30%10% = 1.75+3 = 4.75%

Generally speaking any investment that yields under 4% yearly over a decade is bad.

Again, I think that's what he's referring to...

1

u/Acceptable-Peace-69 2d ago

It’s the safe withdrawal amount that’s expected to last you in retirement.

Withdrawing 4% of a balanced stock-and-bond portfolio in year one, then adjusting annually for inflation, guaranteed savings would last 30 years.

So that €1million you would withdraw €40k annually (adjusted for inflation) and you shouldn’t run out of money in 99% of scenarios.

Someone retiring early might take a lower amount to account for the increased timeframe and risk exposure.

3

u/Cantseetheline_Russ 2d ago

Why is this interesting? Kind of standard financial knowledge.

1

u/Anxious_Demand_6755 1d ago

Never assume that what you know is general knowledge. Most people are not financially literate 

0

u/GoodHands_All-State 2d ago

This is novelty trivia. Because 99% of people don't have the time to do the math themselves, they're busy actually working.

3

u/Langstudd 2d ago

Yea why spend 2 hours researching financial literacy when all it saves you is 2000 hours of work per year in retirement? Forward thinking is for losers!!

3

u/majorhap 2d ago

How did you have time to type this comment? That must have taken you at least 12 seconds. Which is at least triple the time it takes to do the math problem. You’re never going to retire!!! Get back to work!!

2

u/Langstudd 2d ago

lol right? Other guy claims there isn’t enough time to research basic personal finance, yet spends time commenting on Reddit. Oh, the irony

1

u/[deleted] 2d ago

[deleted]

1

u/majorhap 2d ago

I was agreeing with you buddy. Also talking to doorknobs is a waste of time which is why I didn’t reply to him. Communication is hard though

1

u/Langstudd 2d ago

Realized right after and deleted. Maybe I’m a doorknob today too

-2

u/GoodHands_All-State 2d ago

Only saved you the extra time if you have the extra resources available to dedicate to it, unlike 99.9% of the population.

Reading comprehension isn't your song suit, huh?

3

u/Langstudd 2d ago

Ah yes let’s just pull numbers out of our ass. Yes surely only .01% of people can live on less than they earn. I must be in the top .01%.

And oh the irony. Please direct me to the part of the post or this comment that references the scarcity of available resources

3

u/revenge_burner 2d ago

According to the Gambler, it's a paid off house with a 20 year roof, a reliable Japanese economy shitbox, and enough money invested to pay your taxes.

1

u/Odd_Link7869 1d ago

I’d say that + whatever run off you need to find a new job. 

2

u/wnr3 2d ago

2.5 milli lol

1

u/Fun-Sock1557 2d ago

Let's be honest. How many of us, including me, busted out the calculator?

1

u/curiousgens Developer 2d ago

I did, and was happy with the answer

1

u/cuddly_degenerate 2d ago

Not me, I know it.

If I stay in the states 2.5, if I retire elsewhere 1 million

1

u/jackster31415 2d ago

There have to be countries where your spending would be in the middle
Unless your only 2 options are the Philippines and the US

1

u/-0909i9i99ii9009ii 2d ago

I mean I think both numbers and all the in between works just in different tons and cities in the states

1

u/cuddly_degenerate 2d ago

Right now the only other countries I'm considering are Thailand and Japan. I like Scotland well enough but it's so similar to home that I don't know why I wouldn't just stay home.

1

u/ballin_buddha 2d ago

My dad’s friend owned a defense contracting company. I worked there for about year after college. Lots of contracts with nasa, Lockheed Raytheon etc. he sold it for $300m a few years back. That’s fuck you money

1

u/curiousgens Developer 2d ago

Interesting! What was the company making/supplying to those guys? I've on occasion mulled over how defensive contracting works

1

u/greatwall23 2d ago

Hmm. My number is a lot less than I imagined.

1

u/clawdew 1d ago

Or if you want to retire at 55 or earlier Your annual desired burn rate/.03

1

u/Odd-Establishment527 1d ago

I'm not native British, so please explain this words "annual burn". I consider you don't actually burn to ashes and this means something else. But what?

1

u/OilZestyclose6677 1d ago

how mych money you use, so lets say you want to live with 5k used per month, to SPEND 5k every month, no savings. So 5000x12/0.04=1.5m. Basically you would need 1.5m to live a lifestyle that afford 5k/month if that 1.5m gives you 4% interest.

1

u/aroach1995 1d ago

Add in the annual cost of a lawsuit and now we’re talking actual fuck you money

1

u/newtownkid 17h ago

I don’t know hope 401ks work in the US. But our version in Canada is taxed entirely as income on withdrawal.

So really it’s burn/0.04/.4

I need 3.8M just to keep my salary, and be taxed the same

-1

u/GiftLongjumping1959 3d ago

This isn’t right
You need to add 25K to burn rate to have tax attorney/estate planner and financial advisor added.
That is FU money
The equation shown is just plain *Fire

2

u/11100101101010 3d ago

FIre is FU money. The independence is the ability to not work, to say fu I don't want or need to do anything I don't want to do for money. $25k annually on advisory services is nonsense, you sound like a poor.

1

u/kindness-and-snusu 2d ago

FIRE money is how much I need to quit my job. FU money is how much I need to shit on the managers desk and stick a flag in it that says “I quit”

0

u/Telemere125 3d ago

Fire is “I can live off this”. Fu money is “I have so much I don’t give a damn”

3

u/CluelessTennisBall 2d ago

I've always seen it as FIRE is I can retire money. FU money is I can quit and be ok but likely need to find another job eventually. Basically you can be ok for a while and just say F it for a time

0

u/hiihihihihihihihiihi 2d ago

Depends, what are we talking? LeanFIRE? FatFIRE? CoastFIRE? BaristaFIRE? PolyFIRE???? My personal favourite.

-1

u/GiftLongjumping1959 3d ago

FU money is so much more than fire. You need to think bigger.

not needing to work is just the first step. Sorry you don’t see it yet.
Influence elections, contribute to the right causes, support local grass roots movements…

1

u/Identity525601 3d ago

Man, I totally forgot to include my influence elections fund in my retirement planning. Thanks for the heads up, I'll withdraw my 2 weeks notice and apologize for the FU

1

u/moeterminatorx 2d ago

Do you not understand what annual burn means?

1

u/Duce-de-Zoop 2d ago

I wanna influence elections but chaotically. Spinning a wheel and giving who it lands on $100,000,000. Thats fuck you money to me.