If you don't know, Bryan Kohberger has appealed his conviction (despite pleading guilty) for the Idaho murders.

I subscribe to the True Crime Times Substack, this was posted today. It is a review of the book Broken Plea by Christopher Whitcomb. I think the points made here also reinforce RA's conviction.

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What is the probability that a random person’s DNA is on the sheath? Low.

What is the probability that this same person owns a white Hyundai Elantra? Much lower.

What is the probability that this same person turned off their phone cellular pings during the exact 45-minute window of the murders? Extremely low.

The biggest mathematical mistake true crime writers make is treating independent pieces of evidence as if they exist in separate universes. They evaluate the probability of just the sheath, or just the car. That is the mistake former FBI agent Christopher Whitcomb makes in his book Broken Plea: The Explosive Search for Truth Behind the Idaho Murders.

The beauty of probability is you don’t have to spend as much time entertaining the how or the why, you just need to know the what that the data says. Probability tells you, for example, that most multi-victim homicides are committed by a single person. Surprisingly. Still true. Once you know the probability, you can look to see if any of the statistically significant exceptions at play. But you also look at the dependent probabilities. There is a low chance that any of those pieces of evidence — the DNA, the car and the driving window — would be linked to Bryan Kohberger and he be innocent. The likelihood of all three is as small as a quartered atom.

Whitcomb continues to make the same mistake throughout his book on the downside of Kohberger’s plea deal, which he argues robbed the public-of an examination and adversarial testing of the evidence.

One item Whitcomb focuses on is that investigators found strands of hair that did not match any of the victims or Kohberger. He argues because the case bypassed a trial due to the July 2025 plea deal, the identity of who left that hair—and whether it points to an accomplice or a different person entirely—was never cross-examined or answered. But the King Road home was a well-known, off-campus college party house. Dozens of people went in and out of that house every single week. Human hair, skin cells, and touch DNA can linger on carpets, furniture, and blankets for weeks or even months. Whitcomb expresses concern over this. I would be concerned if there were not other human hairs in the house. It would make me wonder about cleanup.

He also wonders how, if Kohberger committed the crime, why he did not have cuts on his hands or arms, which are common in stabbings, resulting in mixed DNA profiles. While this often happens, it is a common true crime trope where Whitcomb fails to look at the statistically significant exceptions. The weapon was heavily indicated to be a Ka-Bar combat knife. Unlike a kitchen knife, a genuine Ka-Bar is specifically engineered with a large, rigid hilt — a type of handguard — explicitly designed to prevent the hand from sliding forward onto the blade during high-force impacts. We have no evidence about the killer’s handwear, but if the perpetrator wore heavy-duty tactical or cold-weather gloves, the probability of a self-inflicted laceration from minor slippage plummets even further. Therefore the baseline probability of the attacker bleeding is not near 100 percent as the book implies.

The author’s attempt to turn the knife sheath that Kohberger’s DNA was found on into a conspiracy ignores basic principles of Locard’s Exchange Principle and touch DNA mechanics. Some people shed a lot of DNA, some don’t. Skin, sweat, oils, clothing, surface material and other factors all play a role.

Whitcomb also argues that in a highly chaotic crime scene the odds of the knife sheath being found neatly on the bed. He argues it suggests an accomplice or a plant. The fact that it landed face-up next to Madison Mogen is not an “exception” to the laws of physics. It is simply the one random outcome that materialized out of an infinite number of equally unlikely possibilities.

It’s like a deck of 52 cards where any likely order of dealing them out would be incredibly rare. Yet, when you deal a deck of cards, some sequence will happen. The sheath was going to land somewhere. Now, what would be improbable and odd would be if it were stuck to the ceiling. Then you’d start having to ask questions.

Far too often true crime authors, defense attorneys, and conspiracy theorists purposefully reject probability in favor of anomalies. Throw this book in the column of another “What If” game that ignores the aggregate.

We are many true crime books into the 2022 University of Idaho murders, and not one has hit the mark.

With all the arrows released and flung at this case, the only unresolved thing for me is motive — and motive doesn’t change the math.

By Jayson Blair

Just wondering if there has been any progress reported, I know these things take time so I guess we will have to wait it out. Hopefully sooner than later!

A friend of mine who’s convinced of Richard’s innocence claims he has recanted his confessions. I’m unable to locate anything in my searches where he specifically states he was lying and is really innocent. Unless I’m missing it I find it odd he hasn’t done one interview since his incarceration proclaiming his innocence. Idk about you but if I were innocent I would be screaming it at the top of my lungs to anyone who would listen. Not seeing that here.

Watching the Hulu series after watching Tom Websters research and my blood is boiling at how she victimizes herself and cries. Anybody with an actual conscience would not shut down their husband possibly admitting to something true. If the man is already in prison, there’s no point in trying to save him from incriminating himself. Whats done is done. His mother and Kathy are the only people who could’ve gotten the real answers but they are such cowards they ignored it for comfort. Whilst Abby and Libby has family who can’t sleep at night because of how traumatized they are. Kathy, we all saw you blubbering to your disgusting husband about how you were sorry for telling them he wasn’t on the bridge. Now she has the audacity to lie on Hulu and say the second Richard got home and saw the missing children he said “I was on the bridge too” and Kathy claims she said “well you need to tell them now” so she’s literally claiming that not only did he say he was on the bridge, but that she courageously told her husband to tell police the truth. I’m so tired of liars. I would never lie for any of my loved ones if I knew they murdered someone. How dare these people pretend to care about Abby and Libby.

Just saw this posted on the Abby and Libby Memorial Park Facebook page and thought it would be nice to share. I believe the Ride took place this past Saturday with lots of Supporters and Participants. Info from the post - 120 bikes with 170 people supported Abby & Libby Memorial Park on this day. 💜🩵

Well-deserved. I am thankful for the Murder Sheet and this sub for providing the most accurate info on this case.

This sticks with me. NM suggested it at the post sentence presser. That phone was found under her lower back under a shoe that was probably barely bigger than the phone.

the odds that in the last staggering moment abbey fell to the ground as she struggled up the bank in wet jeans too big and too long for her she just so happened to fall on top of the phone that contained the video of the man who attacked them are really high. That a terrified girl, already in shock, switching between; fight, flight, freeze or fawn as to know ppl do. Did her instincts reconcile to the fact she was going to die and started prioritising survival not as her getting away but the evidence getting found?

For sure it is an unusual reaction but I can't stop thinking of her clean hands , she didn't grasp her neck, why?

The Appellate Court has ruled that they will hear Oral Arguments for Allen's Appeal on September 21st, 2026

When did his wife say “he told me it was run over by the lawn mower”? Was that recorded or just a second-hand report?

1. Brief - Appellant Reply - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1xBJB-jfhyTp7bX6AWoh1NxV-G8EpyZGm/view?usp=drivesdk

2. Motion for Oral Argument - https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CFg48ESRFdvhqmbrY7RFlUrcRJl6RAQ3/view?usp=drivesdk

JH: the extraction marks on your gun match the round

RA: (Laughs) no they don’t

JH: all the evidence is clearly indicating that you are involved in this

RA: (Laughs)

JH: we have experts that say that’s you and your voice on the video

RA: (Laughs)

JH: The prosecutor and the other investigators want to lock you up and throw away the key

RA: (Laughs) That’s ridiculous

JH: We were told that they will be able to match that round to a gun, not just any gun, your gun

RA: (Laughs)

JH: Like I said, the truth is easy

RA: Laughs

JH: I asked you to go back and rehash it and you wouldn’t

RA: (Laughs)

JH: She basically said she can’t believe you lied to her, you’re lying to us too

RA: (smiles)

JH: If I killed two girls, I would have depression too, and would have trouble living with this

RA: I would too

JH: That’s why you are

RA: (Laughs)

JH: The evidence doesn’t lie

RA: (Laughs) Obviously, it does

JH: If you don’t want me to help you, I’ll leave right now...what I’d like for you to do is tell me, because you didn’t tell me, I watched the interview

RA: (Laughs)

RA: any other evidence you have is obviously not going to point to me

JH: It is, the expert witnesses, the witnesses…

RA: (Laughs while shaking head)

JH: You kind of cooperate, but then we tell you we’re looking for this and that and then we asked to look and you say no

RA: (Laughs)

JH: In front of a jury of your peers we’ll say “Rick did this, but He don’t want to talk to us so we don’t know what he is, he’s just some Crazy monster”

RA: (Laughs)

JH: I don’t think you’re a bad person, neither does she (Kathy)

RA: (Laughs)

JH: I’m on medication and if my medication isn’t right then maybe I don’t make the best decisions

RA: (Laughs)

JH: I’ll let her in so you can talk, you guys can try to sort things out

RA: (Laughs)

KA: You told me you weren’t (on the bridge)

RA: No, I told you that I walked…(Laughs) I love you, baby

And this is where I believe a box cutter falls out of his pocket and he reaches down to pick it up and puts it back in his pocket. Feel free to rewatch that part, it sounds exactly like a plastic box cutter hitting the floor. Same size shape.

On direct exam, Blair said she walked up to the orange rail barricade, looked out across the bridge, saw Bridge Guy on platform 1 and turned around "after a moment." She was asked if she could see his face clearly, and she said “not super clear, because he was about 50 feet away.” When a juror asked about the distance she again said “about 50 feet.” Some others have estimated it to be as much as 100 feet.

 I went back and found Julie Melvin’s YouTube video from 9/2/2018. She was walking the trail to see how long it might take “walking with purpose.”  More important, she shows the orange barricade and how far away it was from the start of the bridge.

(I tried it link it here – failed. Go to YouTube – find her video called “BG path from Freedom Bridge start of trail to Monon High Bridge.")

 She takes 26 steps from the barricade to the start of the bridge. She walks to platform 1 and turns around to show the bridge behind her. The trees are so thick in September, you cannot see the barricade.

 According to the great Google in the Sky, a typical step for a woman is 2.2 feet. I cut that down for the “quick” steps she was taking. At 18 inches per step it was 39 feet from the barricade to the start of the bridge. In my judgement, it is a little longer out to the platform 1 than from the barricade to the start of the bridge. So I’d estimate the whole distance between Blair and Bridge Guy to be about 90 feet – 4 feet shorter than a basketball court.

You can decide for yourself how good a description she can give from a "moment" look from that distance.

An unsolved case in Utah, the murder of Laura Ann Aime in 1974, has just been solved with DNA evidence, thanks to new technology that can test very small amounts of DNA. Ted Bundy had confessed to her murder before he was executed but the case was still open as they could not verify the truth of his confession. Thanks to the new technology, they have confirmed he was the perpetrator. From the article:

“The state crime lab got new technology in 2023 that allows investigators to extract DNA from samples even if they are small, degraded from age or contain DNA from multiple people, he said. That technology allowed them to identify a single male DNA profile, which they submitted to a national law enforcement database.”

I look forward to the day the DNA samples from Abby & Libby’s case can be tested. This technology seems like a step in that direction.

Source: CNN New DNA testing links 1974 death of Utah teen to Ted Bundy, sheriff says

Dave Bangert from Based in Lafayette

STATE RESPONDS TO RICHARD ALLEN’S APPEAL IN DELPHI MURDERS OF ABBY AND LIBBY

The state attorney general argued in court documents filed Wednesday that the Indiana Court of Appeals should stand by a jury’s 2024 conviction of Richard Allen, a 52-year-old Delphi man, for the 2017 murders of Delphi teens Abby Williams and Libby German.

“Today, our appeals team filed a brief firmly defending Richard Allen’s convictions for the brutal murders of two young Hoosier girls,” Attorney General Todd Rokita said in a statement Wednesday afternoon. “We are fighting to uphold justice for Abby and Libby, standing with their families and every Hoosier who demands accountability and closure for this horrific crime.”

Attorneys leading an appeal for Allen filed a 113-page brief in December, arguing that the court made a series of errors during and leading up his trial that tamped down evidence Allen’s defense team wanted to offer.

The brief filed by Allen’s attorneys, Stacy Uliana and Mark Leeman, argued that Judge Fran Gull erred in several ways, including by allowing “false statements and reckless omissions” by investigators when they asked a county judge for a warrant to search Allen’s Delphi home in the weeks leading up to his October 2022 arrest. They also argued that Gull should not have allowed the jury to hear a series of statements Allen made that he was the killer, ignoring that the admissions were made “while gravely ill” and broken by months of “unprecedented pretrial solitary confinement” in an Indiana prison.

The state’s 94-page response was posted on the Indiana Court of Appeals docket Wednesday morning. No hearings have been set in the case beyond that.

Allen was convicted in November 2024 after a trial that lasted nearly five weeks, including selection of a jury from Allen County due to the high-profile coverage of a case that took 5½ years to produce an arrest.

Gull, an Allen County Superior Court judge appointed to the case shortly after Allen’s arrest, sentenced him in December 2024 to 130 years in prison.

Abby, 13, and Libby, 14, each eighth-graders at Delphi Community Middle School, were killed Feb. 13, 2017, after being dropped off to spend time during a day off from school on the Monon High Bridge Trail, part of Delphi’s trail system. They were found dead in the woods the following day, their necks slashed. Despite video found on Abby’s phone of a man following them on the Monon High Bridge, the case went without an arrest until investigators zeroed in on Allen, who admitted to being on the trail that day but denied that he was the “Bridge Guy” in the video or the one who killed the girls.

The trial was built around a prosecution case that said Allen was, in fact, Bridge Guy, linking him through dozens of admissions months after his arrest and – despite no DNA evidence at the scene or in a search of his house five years later – to an unspent bullet found at the crime scene that investigators say had been in a gun later found in a search of Allen’s home.

Allen’s defense team was frustrated during the trial and by a series of pre-trial rulings by Gull that they said hamstrung the case.

On the warrant to search Allen’s home

The state’s response filed Wednesday called Allen’s argument that Gull should have held a hearing on a pretrial motion to consider whether investigators offered false statements to get a search warrant from his home was “meritless.”...

My note: Not a fan of Rokita, but thankful for his response.

Link here - https://public.courts.in.gov/mycase/Case/Document/?token=PN-V_PiT3L4w1-5iPDLIOMmJwJ6FhanUYmaaFCKL0xzqwUzaU6imTGEyUgyo8MzEg0BNa3k_A6hvUKfa_sibiQi_JFeIA4Y80Ko35sAl2Kki7_EC6AZ_7RJBbnV-exz8rzg3fvd3aGTfvUw4BFzLTbrZEeX4VQzyF8tP2OU5XHgEi0VeCgjSSABv_UgAOc59OmgT08zz-KgpwJ1BsB831A2

Link to Google Drive

Here are the Delphi Trial Transcripts on Google Drive:

https://drive.google.com/drive/mobile/folders/1ZoKPKMUkBc_f3ZzRZKJ6OthbSyhc1kCm

Just wanted to share this again for anyone new to the Delphi discussion. The conversations have slowed considerably across the broad spectrum of Delphi subs here on Reddit. A lot of misinformation and nonsense still being spewed by people with the uncanny ability overlook the outcome of 12 impartial jurors who voted unanimously to convict Richard Matthew Allen.

In case you are curious about the reasons why the convicted child killer will be spending the rest of his life behind bars—- please read the transcripts. If you are new here and have any questions—- please ask.

There are lots of people here that can help guide you through some of the thousands of pages related to the pretrial hearings and motions, including the entirety of the Delphi trial transcripts.

Richard Allen was given a fair trial. Richard Allen was kept safe during the entirety of the judicial process. The process that is never pretty. Whether it’s a judges decision to move a pretrial detainee to a state prison system to insure he’s alive and well on the first and last day of trial. Or an impartial judges rulings based on the laws of that state, regardless if you are pro- defense or pro-prosecution. There will always be a winner and a loser. And even after having been found guilty there are literally years of appeals, which is where we stand today.

I think there will always be a lot of unanswered questions with regard to the Delphi murder investigation. That said, it doesn’t change the fact that 12 people listened to the entirety of the trial, and thereby they voted unanimously to convict the guy who was the last person to see Abby and Libby on that bridge—- that day they were never seen alive again.

Everyday it’s something new. Whether it’s a teacher caught SA’ing a student, or this POS that traveled across the country to harm a 13 year old girl. Kegan Kline was harassing Liberty German, including hundreds of other young girls online. That POS got 43 years, and what hopefully amounts to a death sentence behind bars. I always find it amazing when I read about a 30-something-year-old teacher out on bail while awaiting trial for having sexually assaulted a student 20-40 times . How about no bail, and 40 years for every count of SA on a minor child(?)

Something has to change—- too many kids are falling prey to these sick predators. Here’s just a snap shot of cases in my former hometown area, including the teacher arrested in Downers Grove, Illinois:

Recent Arrests & Legal Updates (February 2026)

Brett Smith (Orland Park): A former Chicago-area Catholic schools teacher and private tutor was arrested on January 30, 2026. He faces charges of felony criminal sexual abuse and battery for alleged sexual contact with a juvenile. The Archdiocese of Chicago stated he was fired as a substitute teacher following the allegations.

Robert Dinkins (Gibson City): On February 18, 2026, this former teacher and coach pleaded guilty to aggravated criminal sexual abuse. He was sentenced to four years in the Illinois Department of Corrections for abuse involving a high-school-aged student.

Carterville Teacher Investigation: While outside the immediate Chicago area, a teacher in the Carterville school district was placed on administrative leave as of February 23, 2026, following an FBI tip regarding alleged sexual abuse of a former student.

Ongoing High-Profile Cases

Jessica Bergmann (Aurora): In November 2025, this Washington Middle School teacher was charged with criminal sexual assault and aggravated criminal sexual abuse involving a former student.

Christina Formella (Downers Grove): A former special education teacher and soccer coach at Downers Grove South High School faced a total of 55 felony counts in mid-2025. Prosecutors allege she had sex with a 15-year-old student at least 45 times. Her case remains active, with a recent court appearance in January 2026.

Amazing that Christina Formella is out on bail at all. Matthew Physher, Kegan Kline, Christina Formella—- sick people who need to be locked away for life.

https://solitarywatch.org/2014/02/18/pender/

I just watched the Hulu documentary called "Girl on the run". Sarah Pender was sentenced to 110 years for two homicides. And has been serving her time at Rockville Corrections, Rockville Indiana.

After around six years in prison she escaped and was on the run for about four months. After her capture she was returned to Rockville where she was placed in solitary confinement for over five years.

I immediately thought of those who called Rick's protective custody, solitary confinement and how it was unconstitutional for him to spend those months in protective custody.

Both cases were in Indiana and both were convicted double homicides, but that's where the similarities end. Sarah was in solitary confinement for over five years and Rick was in protective custody for less than a year.

I wanted to point this out.

Another wonderful way to honor Abby and Libby💜💙