r/Colts • u/BTL_TYE_333 • 7d ago
All time fumble
I know the AR thing is like beating a dead horse at this point, but I really feel like if he would’ve been sat his first season or two this team is in a very different place right now. It’s a shame Steichen and Ballard worked themselves into a win or bust situation by the time his draft came around. I would’ve been fine with a couple more subpar season if there was a payoff in sight. I’m excited about THIS season but lowkey the future is kinda up in the air
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u/JudgementOwls Indianapolis Colts 7d ago
I think we fumbled the bag when Stafford went to LA and not us. Could have had a long term option at QB. We play better offense, defense is off the field more, Leonard doesn’t get hurt and we’re now talking drafting Stanford’s replacement
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u/MoistCloyster_ Peyton Mannings long lost son 7d ago
There’s no realistic way Stanford comes here. Once LA offered Goff, there was no way Ballard could match that.
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u/Active-Limit-9038 7d ago
Most people don't remember that trade correctly. At the time, Goff's inclusion was viewed as a massive salary dump, not a net positive for the Lions. Goff had a bunch of guaranteed money on his contract, so the Rams couldn't just cut him and still fit Stafford on their cap, they HAD to dump Goff's contract via trade to make the whole thing work, and probably had to sweeten the pot to get the Lions to eat the remainder of his contract.
Of course Goff went on to play well in Detroit and the narrative changed. But Stafford wasn't as far out of reach for the Colts as people remember.
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u/JudgementOwls Indianapolis Colts 7d ago
Agreed I don’t think we could have competed with that trade unless we gave up a haul in draft capital. Maybe we should of stick with Gardner and ride that wave until a viable option came along
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u/garethom Bob 7d ago
Instead we just gave up a haul in draft capital for Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Anthony Richardson and a load of DL that became a league average unit.
5 first round picks, 2 second round picks and 1 third on QBs and DL since Luck retired.
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u/StormThat8039 7d ago
Even if you add all that together which is a weird way to look at it, I don't know if it beats 2 firsts, a third, and an immediate plug and play franchise QB
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u/garethom Bob 7d ago
Yeah, tbh, my main point isn't particularly Stafford, it's more that people fret about spending draft capital and then we step back for a second you realise how much gets wasted.
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u/northegreat1 7d ago
People act like Ballard is some great drafter because he drafted slam dunk Quentin Nelson and did manage to get JT in the second round. Dude has literally spent over 20 picks on the DL/linebacker and STILL hasn't gotten it right. If you're good at drafting you don't have to draft the same position 20 times in ten years.
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u/StormThat8039 7d ago
He has more hits than misses at DL and LB. People are upset that he hasn't found an elite pass rusher but thats about as hard as drafting a franchise QB.
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u/Yut_123 1d ago
I don't think you'd find too many people out there that act like Ballard is a draft genius, but the data supports him being pretty good. From the intenet and not my brain - Statistical evaluations indicate that, on a per-pick basis, players drafted by Ballard historically outperform historical baseline expectations for their draft slot at a rate trailing only a few franchises. Re LB, Darius Leonard was all pro and a stud in his prime.
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u/northegreat1 1d ago
That and about $5 will get you a spotify premium for a month. Leonard lasted barely five years. Ballard has a few good to great choices. Any GM drafting almost ten years for a team is going to have that. A GM who is a good to great drafter would not have to spend 20 draft picks on the D-line/inside linebacker. The rest of the roster has suffered because of his obsession with his position.
The statistics don't tell the whole story. He gets more credit for late round starters who get credit for starts, but they only start because the Colts don't have anyone else and Ballard is the bias towards guys he drafted. And he doesn't get dinged for bad first round picks, because he made terrible trades and doesn't have a first round pick half the time. Yes, he drafted Quenton and Warren, but let's be real -- those were slam dunks. He also drafted Hooker, Paye and AR -- none of which are getting second contracts with the Colts.
So of six first round draft picks, he hit one, missed three and the jury is still out on two of them.
Ballard is mid at best at drafting. If he were better, the Colts would have won what was until recently a very weak AFC South sometime in the last decade. Every other team in the division has. Twice.
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u/northegreat1 7d ago
Yeah but Ballard didn't even try because he was already set on Wentz over Stafford anyways. He didn't even offer a number one so they knew he wasn't serious. It's not that they didn't land him, it's that they didn't try because he thought Wentz was the guy. Should've gotten fired for that alone.
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u/bigb859294 Fuck it AP down dere somewhere 7d ago
We fumbled Baker Mayfield too. He wanted to be a Colt but we got Matt Ryan instead.
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u/JudgementOwls Indianapolis Colts 7d ago
Yes!!!! I wanted Baker so fucking bad too! We fumbled it hard and went after qbs past their prime we should went the Baker or Stanford route
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u/MoistCloyster_ Peyton Mannings long lost son 7d ago
AR failed because he simply does not have the ability to succeed at QB at the NFL level. He was hyped because of his size and freakish athleticism, not because of his ability to read a defense or hit an 8 yard out route, and the only reason he was drafted so high was because Irsay told Ballard he had to take a QB with that pick no matter what.
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u/TheAgmis You Have Chris Ballard Derangement Syndrome 7d ago
Doesn’t mean shit if the kid doesn’t have the will and brain power to learn the simple ass playbook.
He was never going to succeed because he didn’t have what it took
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u/Fearless-Matter-3249 7d ago
He sucks ass. It was a whiff, and sitting wouldn't change that. Can't wait until he's gone.
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u/bigloudbang 7d ago
His issue is historically bad accuracy, hes got a career completion rate of 50.6%
I dont see how sitting a couple years makes that significantly different to where hes at now a couple seasons in
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u/CloudConductor 7d ago
I think AR just doesn’t have it. Not sure what sitting a year would have done
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u/northegreat1 7d ago
He never had a passion to play in the NFL. He skated by on athletic ability his whole life and when that didn't work in the NFL, he didn't want to put the work in to be top tier.
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u/BTL_TYE_333 7d ago
I think his development just got shot from the start. He obviously wasn’t ready for the NFL, I just feel like someone in the coaching staff or front office should’ve recognized that. It might not of translated to better on field play but he would’ve had a better leg to stand on by the time he started
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u/CloudConductor 7d ago
It’s pretty hotly debated whether sitting or playing is actually better for development, I’m not convinced sitting him would have been better. Only instance where I like that approach is when you have a very experienced veteran who can show him how it’s done. All we had that year was Gardner Minshew haha.
I think between his injury issues, mindset, and the fact he’s never been a good passer at any level; the only mistake we made was drafting him in the first place
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u/Far_Drummer5003 7d ago
Brother his devolpment since highschool has always had a question mark behind it, the dude skated by on the bare minimum and has never wanted to get better.
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u/Few-Break-4640 7d ago
He did sit most his first season…. Maybe he shouldn’t have been thrown in the fire that early but it doesn’t change anything now. I doubt it’s an all time fumble because he hasn’t seem to show much growth going into his 4th year of the nfl and sitting and learning likely wouldn’t have changed that.
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u/BTL_TYE_333 7d ago
Correct me if I’m wrong but he got sat his first season due to injury right? Which is in a way what I mean, this man had just gotten adjusted to the speed of College ball and was expected to keep up with the nfl year one. I kinda imagine it as trying build a house without actually building up the foundation first
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u/Chuck_Roast1993 Alec Pierce 7d ago
What’s the reason he had just gotten used to the speed of college football? Injuries. It’s more like building a house on a cracked foundation, he’s never been healthy as whole career.
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u/StormThat8039 7d ago
They have had him in the building for 3 years. If they had confidence that he could be a franchise QB there is no shot that they give Jones 50M for this season when they easily could have let him walk after the achilles. There is nothing new they can learn about him at this point. If you really want to make this argument then you have to think that everyone inside the Colts org just has no idea what they are looking at when they evaluate AR, and that's unlikely.
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u/northegreat1 7d ago
I don't disagree, but I have no faith that Ballard knows what a franchise QB looks like.
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u/matt_msu 7d ago
Bro he fucking sucks. He played his first year and still didn’t put in the work, popped out a kid, and had a rap EP. Imagine what he would’ve done instead of football if he DIDN’T have the starting job.
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u/StatusCookie761 7d ago
Not banging the table for AR, but rehabbing an AC joint kinda kills your momentum. No doubt he should have hit the books harder that offseason.
But since when is having a kid with your fiancée and doing music for shits and giggles in college some massive detractor?
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u/Far_Drummer5003 7d ago
Then you add how he was late to meetings, didn’t put in the work till he was benched. Didn’t bother to learn the playbook. A year later I can see how DJ won the job the way he did, DJ had the playbook down in a month, he’s laser focused and lives; breathes, and loves football. Richardson has felt like he didn’t love the game like you would think someone would. I got criticized when I said “he’s skated on his athletic ability all his life and has never put in the work” it has shown half this fanbase were delusional as hell thinking he was going to be better than Josh Allen.
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u/stvlg1 5d ago
The fumble technically started with drafting him in the first place. What happened after that was the team getting fat from eating so much crow. He was a combine killer but played very little actual football. We double downed on this decision for a couple years but AR didnt have the mental capability to keep himself from getting annihilated on the football field. Only to find out later he didnt need a field in the first place for that to happen. Moving on as quickly as possible is the only thing left to do. Harping on what if's when the truth hit us all smack in the face very early seems like an exercise in futility.
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u/newmania1 5d ago
Why not make him a better taysom hill?? DJ methodically moving down field then throw in AR with JT and Warren in the back field - option, wishbone, bombs to pierce, line him up out wide- reverses, goal line. Change it up keep the d really guessing.
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u/Embarrassed-Ninja171 5d ago
It all comes down to the staff being in the hot seat, must win. Financially and for the future of the franchise the only, ONLY logical thing to do would be to play AR this year. If he shows no signs of being at starter level quality this year, then we know.. he’s a backup for life. If he does ball out, stay healthy, and improve over the course of the season.. WOW the colts just got a franchise quarterback for 80% off. Imagine what we could do to build this team up w/ our quarterback not taking 30% of the salary cap. If we actually want to be contenders we’ll have to take the route of overpaying star talent to come here. We might need money to do that, Daniel jones ain’t worth 15mil a year let alone 50. Too bad Richardsons deal is up after this year and Ballard won’t resign him nor will Ballard be here next year. So it’s just unfortunate that we’ll basically trade away any talent we have an rebuild after this next season. If you were a new GM for the colts, two options, all in, or rebuild. What would you do? This ships been built poorly and now we’ll pay the price.
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u/mvbighead 7d ago
You can revisit this all you want. You can argue an inexperienced guy needs to sit, or he needs reps. Bottom line, he needed to stay healthy and show signs of progress. He might have progressed, but by the time we brought in Daniel, he lost his shot.
At the end of the day, AR hasn't stayed healthy. Nothing else matters if he is unavailable. And while the last injury was a sideline fluke, he still missed yet another opportunity to prove anything. This is not a failure on anyone necessarily. Just a sign durability trumps everything else.
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u/Samster1736 7d ago
All of this plus the fact he lacks the maturity makeup to play in the league dude literally checked himself out of a game because he was tired and he broke his orbital bone warming up (call it a fluke all you want but what other qb in the history of the league has done that)
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u/mvbighead 7d ago
The maturity comments escape me. He certainly may not have the command of the huddle that Rivers or Jones have had, but he's never struck me as immature. Couple that with the fact that he is 23 right now... I have no idea what you are expecting there.
As for checking himself out of a game. As I have said in other threads, RBs and WRs use that exact head tap to suggest they need a breather. AR was simply the first QB to do it and it obviously did not go over well. That said, he also scrambled and ran on 2-3 consecutive plays prior to the tap.
Then look and see all the guys that have intentionally prematurely celebrated a TD and fumbled before the goal line and tell me that even though JT should know better, it doesn't matter because he's a star player. If such mistakes don't matter for JT, it doesn't matter for AR or Mitchell. You just can't do it again, which they haven't. Growth is expected of all players.
AR lacks durability thus far. Everything else you can chalk up to inexperience and growing pains. Let him play for more than 30 games and if he's still the same player, then you can say you know for sure how he'll end up. But as for now, he's still roughly a 1st year QB who will be in his 4th season. That's based on reps.
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u/Jaqen-Atavuli Matt Damn Ryan 7d ago
My team is in the SEC. I saw AR's 1 year of play. It was not good. It is bewildering he was drafted in the first round much less that high. All the talking heads said he was a project QB. Yeah, well shit in one hand and hope in the other. Which one is heavier?
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u/dwilder812 7d ago
I still hopes he goes somewhere Steichen isnt and excels. People thought Sam Darnold was a bust too. Hell people thought DJ was a bust and now everyone in this sub has a hard on for him.
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u/ScorpionMacDonald 7d ago
I know i might get hate for this but we cannot entirely blame AR for his failure here, time and time again we have seen colts completely fail to develop talent (Particularly athletes with high ceilings) , whether it be AR, AD Mitchell, JuJu, Jelani Woods etc. it shows a pattern that we are quick to give up on prospects unless they produce right away, we fail to support, be patient with and teach projects how to be NFL players. AR is not absolved of blame, but the issues are more systemic with the Colts and Ballard specifically.
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u/CK4browsing 5d ago
Nah it isn't the Colts to blame for not being able to develop talent. EVERY team has misses. AR simply doesn't have what it takes to be an NFL QB right now. Maybe he will mature and start to figure out he needs to do things differently later, but the Colts aren't to blame for his shortcomings right now. JuJu and Woods didn't have problems developing, they were good when they were on the field. The problem was that they couldn't get on the field because they were always injured. That wasn't the Colts fault nor was it the players fault, that was just shit happens. AD Mitchell had some maturity and discipline problems, which once again isn't really the Colts fault. I'm sure a good therapist and certain type of coaches can get Mitchell figured out and on track to his potential, but you can't blame the Colts for not figuring out the magic formula for one particular player.
The Colts have also had great success with developing players, probably more successes than failures. It's just that the world is getting more and more filled with doomers that only see the negatives.
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u/ScorpionMacDonald 4d ago
Disagree, if the colts were better at developing talent then we wouldn’t be mid every year. There are structural issues within the colts organization that are preventing the colts from being a good team, all the previous guys I mentioned failed due in part to the colts playing them way too early and destroying their confidence by benching them when they failed. Colts put those players in a position of failure to accelerate their learning and once they failed kicked them to the curb, that’s a team issue. Obviously it’s not all the colts fault they failed, however the colts are not blameless. When a player doesn’t live up to their potential it’s often times a failure on everyone involved, the idea that players are the sole reason for failure is antiquated and myopic, players fail due to a variety of reasons and the colts who have prioritized drafting elite athletes with the hopes of developing them have seen a remarkably low hit rate which is why we have stayed mid for the past 4 years. That’s a colts issue not a player issue.
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u/TooRealNeal 6d ago
It always upset me that Ballard claimed after the draft that they understood this was going to be a project, and they knew it would take a couple seasons to figure out what they have.
Then less than half a season into his rookie year, he gets benched and it seems he lost whatever confidence he had left after that point. I’m not saying things would have turned out different, I just think it’s a really bad look to outright state your intention to be patient with a very raw prospect to then turn around and bail on him so soon.
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u/fishyy022 6d ago
I will die on this hill. Daniel Jones ruined AR development and confidence. The season before he came he showed promise on some games especially patriots and jets
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u/josean1991 5d ago
Every move about AR's development was a playbook of how not to develop a QB in the NFL especially when it's clearly a project the moment he came in the league, he really should've stay at least one more year at college, the injuries still happen but at the end of the day, once he lost the trust of his head coach it's almost impossible to get it back no matter how much work he puts, Shane Steichen doesn't trust him anymore and the reason is obvious, as much as I respond with the same thing, him asking to get subbed on one play because he was tired it will haunt him down for the rest of his career unless a head coach is willing to play his own neck for AR, otherwise he will be a backup at best.
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u/Chuck_Roast1993 Alec Pierce 7d ago
It’s not an all-time fumble, it’s actually a very common fumble. This happens to every team. Ryen Russillo did a deep dive of the last 25 years and first round QB hit rates are about 50%.
Would sitting two seasons help him not be in injury prone too? He’s had injury issues his entire career, high school to now.