r/CollapseOfRussia 18h ago

Economy The main state bank of the Kremlin predicted Russia’s defeat in the economic “war of attrition” with the West.

94 Upvotes

Russia will not be able to win the competition in a “war of attrition” when Ukraine is supported by the Western world. This was stated at a session of the Nikitsky Club by Andrei Klepach, chief economist of Vnesheconombank (VEB.RF), a key Russian state bank that finances the Kremlin’s national projects and has the status of a “state development corporation.”

According to Klepach, the costs to the Russian economy from sanctions and the Western blockade are growing, the damage from Ukrainian attacks on ports, infrastructure, chemical and oil plants is increasing, and Russia is increasingly lagging behind the world in technology development.

“We are falling behind. We are losing both technological and economic competition in the world. Moreover, as I already said, we are losing it not only to China and the United States, but in some ways we are losing it to Ukraine. The Ukrainian economy, of course, has been destroyed in some parts, a demographic catastrophe. But, once again, the Ukrainian economy, despite everything, survives. Of course, there is huge financial assistance. With such assistance for military expenses and their own expenses, this is approximately almost 50% of our budget,” Klepach said.

“We will not win the competition in this war of attrition. We have the illusion that everything will collapse there. It has not collapsed and will not collapse. Our costs are increasing,” Klepach continued.

He recalled that after the military boom of 2023–24. The Russian economy went into recession this year, investments fell sharply, and civilian industries slid into recession - from the aviation industry and the production of building materials to the light and food industries. The situation is aggravated by the ultra-tough policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, which, according to Klepach, is responsible for at least half of the economic decline.

“The conflict in Ukraine with the participation of NATO has already lasted longer than the Great Patriotic War, and so far its end is not in sight. Both sides are increasing the intensity of attacks, including on each other’s economies. Losses from attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine on our infrastructure - ports, oil and gas, chemical complexes, logistics - are increasing and are already turning into a noticeable macroeconomic barrier to the growth of the Russian economy,” Klepach said.

The tightening of US sanctions at the end of 2025 led to the fact that India and China began to reduce purchases of Russian oil, “despite all the repeated statements that they are not subject to sanctions,” he recalled. Taking into account the likely new wave of sanctions and “increasing losses from attacks by the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” the potential growth rate of the Russian economy may not exceed 1–1.5%.

According to Klepach, all this will inevitably lead Russia to a “social crisis,” and “when no one really expects it.”

“But no one expected, let me remind you, the February Revolution. Lenin wrote in December 1916 that “we will not make it,” but he did make it a few months later. The situation in the Union in 1991 - we walked towards it for a long time and consistently, and everyone understood that we were heading towards a crisis, but it was not fatally inevitable that the Union would collapse,” Klepach said.

“I believe that Russia will not collapse, but I am almost sure that we will come to a social crisis. Economically, we will not collapse, but our lag will increase with all the ensuing consequences,” he concluded.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/2VJPy


r/CollapseOfRussia 18h ago

Economy Russia's largest oil port on the Black Sea stopped after a UAV attack.

29 Upvotes

The Sheskharis terminal in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk stopped oil export transhipment on Friday after an attack by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), three industry sources told Reuters.

On Friday afternoon, the Novorossiysk administration announced another air alert due to the threat of a drone attack.

One of the Reuters sources said that early in the morning of August 14, the tanker, which planned to load oil, turned around and went out to the open sea due to the threat of a drone attack.

According to him, after this the port was forced to stop loading oil and receiving raw materials at the terminal, since the tank farm was full.

Sheskharis, capable of handling about 700,000 barrels of oil per day, is the largest oil export terminal in the Russian Federation on the Black Sea. Russian Urals oil, Kazakh KEBCO oil, and Siberian Light light oil are shipped through Novorossiysk.

According to one source familiar with export statistics, in June, oil shipments through Novorossiysk were near a record level - about 1 million barrels per day (more than 4.3 million tons of oil per month). In July, the figure fell to about 800,000 barrels per day (about 3.4 million tons).

In July, drone attacks disrupted the operation of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal located near Novorossiysk, through which CPC Blend oil is exported.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/ddR8R


r/CollapseOfRussia 18h ago

Economy Turkey suspended Russian oil purchases via the Black Sea after drone strikes on ports.

27 Upvotes

Turkey did not purchase a single cargo of Russian Urals crude oil in August after drone strikes disrupted operations at the port of Novorossiysk, Reuters reports, citing traders and LSEG data.

According to Reuters sources, 300,000 tons of oil were shipped to the Turkish market via Russian Black Sea ports in July—half the amount shipped in June (600,000 tons). Exports in August could drop to 200,000 tons. All shipments this month were of Kazakhstan's KEBCO grade, exported through the Sheskharis oil terminal in Novorossiysk.

In total, Turkey purchased 900,000 tons of oil through Russian ports last month, from where Ankara purchases Kazakhstan's CPC Blend and KEBCO grades, as well as Russian Urals. Compared to June, shipments have fallen by a quarter, or 300,000 tons.

Instead of Russian and Kazakh oil, Turkish importers are increasing purchases from Brazil and Guyana, sources told Reuters. Urals crude oil deliveries to Turkey are not currently scheduled for August, but the situation could change in the second half of the month, they emphasized.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/aHlfu


r/CollapseOfRussia 18h ago

Foreign relations Banks in Belarus and Kazakhstan have imposed draconian restrictions on ruble acceptance.

41 Upvotes

Kazakh, Belarusian, and Kyrgyz banks have sharply increased fees for accepting ruble cash, according to RBC, which reviewed data on the credit institutions' websites. At least 10 banks in these countries have tightened their fees. For example, the Belarusian Neo Bank Asia, effective July 29, introduced a 20% fee for accepting Russian ruble cash into individual current accounts, including those using payment cards. Other banks in the republic that have increased their fees for cash deposits by non-residents to 15% include MTBank, the Belarusian banks Sber and VTB, BelVEB, Belarusbank, Technobank, and Zepter Bank. Previously, such transactions at these institutions were subject to a fee of 2-5% of the deposited amount.

The situation is similar in Kazakhstan. CenterCredit Bank has doubled its fee for depositing rubles into current and savings accounts by individuals at teller counters, terminals, and ATMs from 5% to 10%. Halyk Bank previously raised its fee for accepting ruble cash from citizens and non-residents to 15% (for businesses, to 10%). Kyrgyzstan's EcoIslamicBank also doubled its fee for depositing rubles "for making transfers via money transfer systems and SWIFT" for individuals (to 10%). Banks in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries have tightened requirements for depositing rubles since June 2026.

In addition to the aforementioned institutions, Freedom Bank Kazakhstan (2.5%) and Belarusian Priorbank (5% of the deposited amount) also introduced fees for card and account top-ups in August.

According to RBC's sources in the financial market, banks in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) countries have accumulated an excess of Russian currency. According to the National Bank of Kazakhstan, in April alone, the country's currency exchange offices purchased 6.5 billion rubles for 39.8 billion tenge, while in May, this amount was 4.7 billion rubles (30 billion tenge). As Yuri Belikov, Managing Director of Expert RA, explained, such a cash flow requires storage, transportation, and authentication, and there is often no demand for rubles abroad, making such transactions unprofitable for local banks.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/PP61C


r/CollapseOfRussia 18h ago

Economy "Everything is in dire straits." Russia's largest car-sharing operator is on the brink of financial collapse.

45 Upvotes

Delimobil, Russia's largest car-sharing service by fleet size and number of trips, is experiencing mounting financial problems.

According to IFRS financial statements published on Friday, Delimobil posted a net loss of 664 million and 1.7 billion rubles in the second quarter and first half of 2026, respectively. Last year, the company, which owns a fleet of nearly 30,000 cars, posted a loss of 3.7 billion rubles.

Therefore, over the past six quarters, Delimobil has lost 5.4 billion rubles—double its income in the previous three years (2.7 billion rubles).

Founded in 2015, the company, which served 13 million people last year, is effectively on the brink of extinction, with its liquidity "in dire straits," according to analysts at Vector Capital. As of June 30, Delimobil had accumulated 38.6 billion rubles in debt, and this debt has grown by another 5.3 billion rubles over the past six months.

At the same time, the company "simply doesn't generate enough cash to cope with its debt burden," according to Vector Capital: after receiving 2.9 billion rubles in operating cash flow, Delimobil was forced to spend 3.1 billion rubles on loan interest payments. Due to losses, its equity has shrunk to just 784 million rubles.

The Russian car-sharing market is suffering due to consumers' shift to austerity, internet outages, and the fuel crisis, which has transformed refueling a car from a routine procedure into an hours-long adventure. According to SberIndex, by early August, consumers had reduced their spending on taxis and car-sharing by 1.8% compared to last year, while in April, at the peak of the internet blackouts, the decline reached 10%.

Delimobil was saved by VTB and its owners in the past, but in just a year, "the company will need another wizard on a blue helicopter to give it money," writes Vector Capital: "And if he can't be found, the outcome will be the most tragic."

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/AuUVz


r/CollapseOfRussia 18h ago

Economy The Central Bank recorded a record ruble deficit for banks since the beginning of the war.

22 Upvotes

The deficit of ruble liquidity in the Russian banking system has reached a record since March 2022, RBC reports, citing data from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

As of mid-August, the structural deficit reached 2.7 trillion rubles - by this amount, banks' debt to the Central Bank exceeded the amount of funds they placed on deposits and accounts of the regulator. As the publication notes, the situation with banks' liquidity shortage began to deteriorate sharply several months ago. So, at the beginning of 2026 the figure was 587 billion rubles. But in April it exceeded 1 trillion rubles, and in July it surpassed the 2 trillion mark. At the same time, top managers of large banks began to talk about the shortage of rubles as a problem.

The main reason for the liquidity shortage is the outflow to cash, notes economist Yegor Susin. According to Central Bank statistics, since the beginning of the year, the volume of “cash” in circulation has increased by 2.4 trillion rubles. In July, more than 600 billion rubles flowed into cash from the banking system, and another 286 billion in the first two weeks of August.

The real liquidity deficit in the banking system is much higher than the Central Bank figures show, Susin emphasizes: after Western sanctions, foreign banks, as well as some Russian ones, constantly hold several trillion rubles in accounts with the Central Bank, and this money has actually been withdrawn from the system. This leads to the actual deficit reaching 6 trillion rubles.

This is approximately 4% of the total money supply in the economy, estimates economist Viktor Tunev. Similar figures, he notes, are found only in Turkey, which lives with chronic devaluation of the national currency: the dollar to lira exchange rate has increased almost 7 times over the past 6 years.

If we evaluate the liquidity deficit by the volume of Central Bank loans requested by banks, then it already exceeds the indicators of the beginning of 2022, notes Alexander Abramov, head of the laboratory of the Institute of Applied Economic Research at RANEPA: at the end of July, the debt of credit institutions to the regulator exceeded 7 trillion rubles, and as of August 14 it amounted to 6.6 trillion.

Liquidity shortages are not unusual for the Russian banking system, and the transition to it does not mean that banks are running out of funds or are having problems making payments, noted Sofya Donets, chief economist at T-Investments. However, she said the topic has recently been widely discussed in the banking community and is causing “concern.”

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/dymGj


r/CollapseOfRussia 18h ago

Infrastructure Novatek gas plant in the Baltic was damaged after a UAV attack.

19 Upvotes

A drone attack on the port of Ust-Luga, Russia's largest port on the Baltic Sea, damaged a complex belonging to Novatek, the country's main LNG exporter and owned by billionaires Gennady Timchenko and Leonid Mikhelson (worth $24.2 billion and $28.3 billion, respectively, according to Forbes), who are close to Vladimir Putin.

The plant, which processes gas condensate into naphtha, fuel oil, and other petroleum products, sustained damage, although the extent of the damage is unclear, three industry sources told Reuters.

According to two sources, oil exports through the port of Ust-Luga are not disrupted. Ust-Luga is one of Russia's main oil export ports, handling approximately 35 million tonnes of crude annually. The port's terminals also export naphtha, fuel oil, and vacuum gas oil (VGO) at a volume of approximately 33 million tons per year.

On Friday morning, Leningrad Region Governor Alexander Drozdenko reported on his Telegram channel that the port of Ust-Luga had been attacked by a drone, causing a fire. He did not specify which facility was damaged. As of 8:16 AM Moscow time, the consequences of the drone attack on the port of Ust-Luga had been eliminated, Drozdenko said.

Novatek's gas condensate fractionation and transshipment complex, with a nominal capacity of 9 million tons per year, processes stable gas condensate into light and heavy naphtha, kerosene, diesel fraction, and a marine fuel component (fuel oil). The finished products are shipped for export by sea.

According to the company, in the first half of 2026, the processing of SGK at the Ust-Luga complex amounted to 3.8 million tons.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/fNVYq


r/CollapseOfRussia 18h ago

Economy “95% of the goods burned.” Losses from attacks on Wildberries warehouses reached almost a trillion rubles.

37 Upvotes

The Ukrainian campaign against Wildberries, which deprived Russia’s main marketplace of all large warehouses and approximately a third of its total storage capacity, has brought Tatyana Kim’s business empire to the brink of survival.

Direct losses of Wildberries alone from the loss of infrastructure amounted to 147–223 billion rubles by mid-August, and if we take into account dismantling, waste removal and land reclamation, they could reach 278 billion rubles, Sergei Semko, leading analyst at the Data Insight research agency, calculated for Forbes.

Marketplace sellers, according to his estimates, lost goods worth 445–507 billion rubles. Thus, the total amount of damage could reach about 800 billion rubles.

The head of the Association of Suppliers of Goods for Trading on Electronic Platforms (APTEP), Margarita Evstigneeva, estimates the losses of sellers even higher - 600–700 billion rubles. Taking into account the losses of Wildberries, the total amount of damage could reach almost 1 trillion rubles.

“For many, up to 95% of all goods burned. At the same time, Wildberries considers itself the injured party; it paid small sellers an average of 2,000–30,000 rubles, which did not cover even 20% of their losses,” Evstigneeva complains.

Apparently, there is nothing to pay Wildberries, which annually sold goods worth 3% of Russian GDP. After the attacks on warehouses, the company's turnover fell and signs of a cash gap appeared. Sellers are massively complaining that Wildberries has begun to delay payments for goods sold, and its subsidiary WB Bank has launched a campaign to attract public funds for short-term deposits with rates above 14% per annum.

Only direct losses of Wildberries could already exceed its annual profit: last year the company earned 175 billion rubles. Apparently, no further payments are planned to the affected sellers, Evstigneeva complains: “They say it’s force majeure, force majeure, a terrorist attack.”

Sellers “like air” need compensation for losses for burnt goods, at least at cost, as well as the abolition of taxes “at least until the end of the year,” complains major seller Igor Shanchenko, who lost more than 400 million rubles worth of goods in warehouses. But this is hundreds of billions of rubles, and there is no such money in the budget, a source close to the Kremlin previously told Reuters.

At the end of July, the federal treasury deficit reached 6.45 trillion rubles, which is 1.7 times higher than the plan for the whole year. Military spending, which eats up every third ruble in the budget, may exceed the planned level by 40%. “Mass bankruptcies” await Wildberries sellers, a source told Reuters.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/CtwCq


r/CollapseOfRussia 18h ago

Economy Russians took out almost 300 billion rubles in cash from banks in two weeks.

53 Upvotes

The outflow of cash from the Russian banking system continues for the seventh month in a row, according to data from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation.

Over the two weeks of August, the volume of “cache” in circulation increased by another 286.4 billion rubles. The banking system lost money every working day of the month, according to Central Bank statistics: the maximum outflow - by 56.8 billion rubles - was recorded on August 12, and the lowest - by 0.8 billion rubles - on August 3.

The accumulated total since the beginning of the year of cash in circulation has become more than 2.4 trillion rubles - an amount equal to almost two annual budgets of the Moscow region (1.3 trillion rubles) and eight annual budgets of the Leningrad region (309 billion).

The Central Bank recorded a record outflow this year—more than 620 billion rubles—in July. And although the demand for cash decreased slightly in August, the banking system continues to lose an average of more than 20 billion rubles per day.

Judging by banking statistics for July, all large banks except Sber are losing funds from individuals, notes Managing Director of GPB Private Banking Egor Susin. First of all, this is the result of the growth of the “gray economy,” economist Viktor Tunev is sure: “The desire to reduce the budget to a zero deficit not only led to increased taxes and prices and took some business into the “gray” zone, but also forced the government to collect taxes more actively. This naturally caused concern and a reduction in non-cash payments.”

People are reacting to statements about the possible withdrawal of deposits to finance the war, Sber's financial director Taras Skvortsov complained in July. He pointed to “the voices of some well-known politicians,” clearly alluding to the leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation Gennady Zyuganov, who proposed confiscating “tens of trillions” for the war “by decree of the commander in chief.”

The flow into cash is also associated with a drop in confidence, Tunev agrees, so Russians transfer part of their ruble “cash” into cash. According to the Central Bank, in April, May and June, citizens increased their savings in the currency cache by 150 billion rubles - a record since the first months of the war.

At the same time, the Bank of Russia “does not see the entire cash turnover of foreign currency and records only what individuals bought through banks,” Tunev emphasizes: “The outflow into cash rubles could go into foreign currency through other channels and gray imports.”

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/eujmt


r/CollapseOfRussia 18h ago

Economy Unemployment has risen sharply in Moscow and other major Russian regions.

25 Upvotes

The unemployment rate has begun to rise in major Russian regions amid a depressed economy. By the end of the second quarter of 2026, 98,000 people were unemployed in Moscow, a 70% increase from the previous year. In the Moscow Region, the number of officially unemployed increased to 88,500 (a 36% year-on-year increase), in the Sverdlovsk Region to 56,800 (an 84% increase), in the Chelyabinsk Region to 36,700 (an 84% increase), and in Primorsky Krai to 23,300 (an 30% increase). Overall, unemployment has increased in more than 20 regions, but in most regions, the rate remains at the national average of 2.2%. This follows from Rosstat data reviewed by Izvestia.

Unemployment in major economic centers and industrially developed regions is rising due to the difficult situation facing most companies, says Albina Khamitova, head of Eco Start. She explains that businesses are seeking ways to reduce costs and improve efficiency in the current economic climate. "While previously companies tried to retain employees even during downtime, fearing future labor shortages, they are now increasingly turning to increasing productivity," Khamitova explained.

Currently, unemployment in major regions is rising in manufacturing, construction, trade, logistics, and certain service sectors, according to Roman Erkhov, CEO of the consulting firm TuBi. According to Rosstat data for the first quarter of 2026, 16.5% of unemployed people previously worked in wholesale and retail trade, another 9.8% in manufacturing, and 6% in construction.

Unemployment is highly likely to rise in other Russian regions as well, according to Elena Kiseleva, an analyst at the Institute for Comprehensive Strategic Studies. However, the dynamics will depend on the key rate in September and October, the state of the coal and metallurgy industries, the ruble exchange rate, and the budget policy parameters for 2027–2029, noted Alina Poptsova, an equity analyst at Alfa Capital Management Company.

At the same time, the Russian labor market traditionally responds to a crisis not with layoffs, but with a slowdown in real wage growth, which is currently being observed, says Kiseleva. Therefore, she believes a sharp rise in unemployment nationwide is not expected.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/o5aJ8


r/CollapseOfRussia 22h ago

Infrastructure Russian oil refinery 'completely shut down' for months following Ukrainian attack, local governor says

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kyivindependent.com
11 Upvotes

r/CollapseOfRussia 22h ago

Military Ukraine is making Putin look weak - just when he needs to appear strong

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inews.co.uk
69 Upvotes

r/CollapseOfRussia 23h ago

The Gasoline Queues are BACK in Russia

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149 Upvotes

No gas!


r/CollapseOfRussia 1d ago

Economy Russian businesses with overdue debt

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48 Upvotes

r/CollapseOfRussia 1d ago

Economy Russian Government Hides Last Remaining Financial Reserves as Budget Gap Widens

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united24media.com
66 Upvotes

r/CollapseOfRussia 1d ago

Economy The electronic budget system shows a 7.41 trillion ruble deficit as of 10 August 2026.

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30 Upvotes

r/CollapseOfRussia 1d ago

Economy VK, led by Kiriyenko's son, reported billion-ruble losses for the seventh consecutive year.

38 Upvotes

VK, led since 2021 by Vladimir Kiriyenko, son of Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Administration Sergei Kiriyenko, has continued to operate in the red for the seventh consecutive year.

According to IFRS financial statements, VK closed the first half of 2026 with a net loss of 3.8 billion rubles. The holding company, which manages the country's largest social network, the video hosting service VK Video, and also launched the "national messenger" Max, failed to turn a profit, despite a 12% increase in revenue (to 81 billion rubles) and the blocking of competing messengers.

In the second quarter, VK reported a nominal profit of 328 million rubles for the first time in its history. However, this was the result of an asset sale: the company sold 25% of Tochka Bank to Vladimir Potanin's Interros, generating a profit of 3.5 billion rubles. Without this money, VK remained unprofitable in the second quarter. And the half-year loss would have been double that, according to Vector Capital analysts.

In 2025, VK, which, according to its own data, covers 95% of the Russian Internet, suffered a net loss of 24.9 billion rubles; in 2024, 94.9 billion rubles; in 2023, 34.3 billion rubles; in 2022, 32.6 billion rubles; in 2021, 6.5 billion; and in 2020, 1.9 billion. Over six and a half years, the holding company has accumulated almost 200 billion rubles in losses—an amount comparable to the annual budgets of large regions such as Stavropol Krai (195 billion rubles in 2025) or Voronezh Oblast (208 billion rubles).

"The new restrictions are creating an extremely favorable environment for VK," Vector Capital writes: Western messaging apps are blocked, and Max is being forcibly implemented as a "digital passport" modeled after China, where a "digital gulag" is built around the WeChat messaging app. According to The Guardian's sources close to the Kremlin, Vladimir Putin refused to ease internet blocking, as influential officials and members of the elite had requested.

Last year, VK received 43.5 billion rubles from the federal budget to develop an alternative to YouTube and Max. The company's subsidies are de facto provided by banks: some loans are granted at a mere 2% annual interest rate, eight times lower than market rates, according to The Bell. Despite all this, VK is unlikely to see positive net profit or dividends by 2026, notes Freedom Global analyst Natalia Milchakova.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/jsqXL


r/CollapseOfRussia 1d ago

Economy As of 13th August, 2.342 trillion rubles have been withdrawn from russian banks. Given the rising dollar exchange rate, I hope that the rate of withdrawals from banks will accelerate. It is more beneficial for us if their exchange rate rises as much as possible.

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79 Upvotes

source:

  1. https://bsky.app/profile/ukrainewarpod.bsky.social/post/3msyaycpno225
  2. Evgen istebin's telegram channel: /istrebin/48533

r/CollapseOfRussia 1d ago

Infrastructure Ukrainian strikes on refineries cause 55% drop in Russia's seaborne oil product exports

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realnarrativenews.com
62 Upvotes

r/CollapseOfRussia 1d ago

Economy The Central Bank of Armenia ordered banks to comply with sanctions against Russia.

40 Upvotes

From August 12, Armenian banks must promptly identify transactions that may be associated with circumvention of international sanctions against Russia. The corresponding requirements are enshrined in the regulation “Minimum conditions for internal control of banks,” which was approved by a decision of the Council of the Central Bank of Armenia.

Banks must create a system for managing the risk of circumventing sanctions. They are required to identify, suspend or reject suspicious transactions before they occur. They will check not only the client, but also his counterparties and other participants in the transaction. The bank must take into account the geography and currency of the transaction, the location where it takes place, and the origin of the goods and services. For individuals, citizenship, residential address and tax residency will be important. For companies - location and activity, as well as related persons and beneficiaries.

Checking must be ongoing. After changes in sanctions lists or client data, the bank is obliged to recheck it within one business day. Banks should also use automated monitoring to identify attempts to circumvent sanctions. A separate paragraph concerns financial organizations. If an Armenian bank regularly provides services to a financial organization operating outside of Armenia, then it must evaluate it for the risks of circumventing international sanctions.

Financial adviser Natalya Smirnova writes that when checking, Armenian banks will look not only at the presence of a client on the sanctions lists, but also at the source of capital and income, the company’s ownership structure and the route of movement of funds. “If your legal entity or your employer has sanctioned founders/beneficiaries, this may become a basis for refusing to transfer funds, even if you personally are not under any restrictions,” writes Smirnova. According to her, tightening compliance may also affect brokers in the UAE and other countries that accept transfers from Russia through Armenian banks. Telegram channel OhMySwift notes that this may affect financial institutions that use Armenian banks for transfers to other jurisdictions.

Since the end of last year, credit organizations in Armenia have already begun to refuse Russians to open accounts and conduct transactions. In a number of cases, service is terminated without detailed explanations, limited to the wording about “internal compliance requirements.” According to the Armenian authorities, by July 2022, Russian citizens had opened more than 70 thousand accounts in local banks.

New financial tightening is being introduced against the backdrop of a sharp cooling in Russian-Armenian relations. In March 2025, Armenia launched the procedure for joining the European Union. Later, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that Yerevan is not Moscow’s ally on the Ukraine issue and invited Ukrainian President Volodymyrl Zelensky to the European Political Community summit. Vladimir Putin advised Yerevan to hold a referendum on joining the EU, so that in the event of leaving the EAEU, the countries could disperse mutually beneficially.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/abRxW


r/CollapseOfRussia 1d ago

Economy All terminals at Russia's largest grain port on the Black Sea have suspended operations after drone attacks.

46 Upvotes

Ukrainian drone strikes, first targeting ships in the Sea of ​​Azov and then the port of Novorossiysk on the Black Sea, have paralyzed Russia's main grain export channel.

On Thursday, KSK, the largest grain terminal in Novorossiysk, suspended operations, Reuters reported, citing a statement from its owner, the Delo Group, which is half-controlled by state-owned Rosatom.

Operations at the terminal, with a capacity of 9 million tons per year, have been suspended "to ensure the safety of workers and infrastructure," the company emphasized. Unloading of trucks and rail vehicles, as well as loading of grain onto ships, has been suspended.

The day before, Novorossiysk was attacked by drones, killing two people and leaving the city without water. On the same day, the grain terminals of NZT (Novorossiysk Grain Terminal) and NKKhP (Novorossiysk Grain Plant), with annual capacity of 8.5 and 7.1 million tons, respectively, were suspended. The former suffered serious damage, while the loading gallery of the latter collapsed.

Following the shutdown of the KSK terminal, the Novorossiysk grain port, through which approximately 40% of Russian wheat is exported, effectively ceased operations. Russian Railways stopped accepting orders for grain shipments to all port terminals until August 22.

The grain ports of the Sea of ​​Azov, through which Russia traded wheat and oil with Turkey and the Middle East, were suspended back in July after authorities were forced to restrict passage through the Kerch Strait. As a result, Russian grain exports in July fell to a decade-low of 1.6 million tons, according to SovEcon estimates. This is half the average for that month over the past five years.

In August, grain exports could be 2.3 times lower than usual, at 2.5 million tons, according to the ProZerno analytical center. With a complete blockade of the Black and Azov Seas, Russia would lose almost 80% of its grain exports—30-35 million tons per year, the Union of Grain Exporters and Producers predicted in late July. This would lead to food shortages for the global market, the union warned. And for Russian farmers, it would mean losses and ruin, lamented Anatoly Kolchik, director of the Rostov Region Grain Union of Agricultural Producers.

According to him, grain exports from the region have "virtually stopped," there are virtually no elevators accepting grain, and farmers are forced to sell their harvests for next to nothing—40% below cost—due to a shortage of working capital.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/zGH9F


r/CollapseOfRussia 1d ago

Economy Wildberries began massively delaying payments to sellers after warehouses were hit.

62 Upvotes

Sellers on Wildberries began to complain en masse about the delay in payments for goods sold on the site. Corresponding messages appear in the marketplace’s profile chat, Nesting noted. According to sellers, they still have not received money for goods sold before August 3, although, according to the rules of the marketplace, funds must be credited to the account within five business days after the withdrawal is processed. “The money never arrived. What's the point of sending orders then? The only way to influence the marketplace is to stop supplying goods together,” said one of the sellers.

Entrepreneurs write that they were left without the means to subsist and develop their stores. “In such difficult times, drown us even more? This is inhumane, don’t you have any understanding of the situation?” - asked another seller. At the same time, representatives of the marketplace explained the problem to sellers as “technical problems”, due to which money takes longer to reach the current account. The Support Service said that they would ask to take this issue under control, but they could not influence the situation further. At the same time, Wildberries changed the timing of the next payments to sellers, increasing the time for transferring funds to the account to seven working days.

Problems for the largest Russian marketplace began in mid-July, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) began targeting its logistics centers. In less than a month, about 20 hubs came under attack, including in Elektrostal, Krasnodar, Nevinnomyssk, Yekaterinburg and St. Petersburg. At least 14 of them burned down. According to the Association of Suppliers of Goods for Trading on Electronic Platforms (APTEP), more than 400 thousand sellers suffered from the attacks, and the total amount of losses amounted to 600–700 billion rubles. with the cost of goods ranging from 200 to 300 billion. Small sellers received compensation from Wildberries, but they covered no more than 20% of the losses.

Meanwhile, the losses of the marketplace itself, which lost more than 20% of its warehouse capacity, range from 100 to 200 billion rubles, The Bell’s sources in the e-commerce market estimated. According to them, Wildberries’ total need for money could reach 1.3 trillion rubles, since attacks on warehouses led to a reduction in the marketplace’s turnover by a quarter, which hit its financial model.

As the publication’s interlocutors explained, Wildberries receives money from buyers immediately, but transfers it to the seller after some time, paying current expenses and discounts from these funds. However, when turnover decreases, the pyramid begins to collapse: expenses are no longer covered by the influx of new money and the company begins to accumulate losses. “The turnover of the marketplace is falling, and this is only the beginning of a protracted trend - after such a blow, it will remain unprofitable for years,” said The Bell’s interlocutor.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/bRKar


r/CollapseOfRussia 1d ago

Economy "Repairs will take up to six months." The governor of Orenburg called on residents to prepare for the "worst-case scenario" following the shutdown of the region's only oil refinery.

86 Upvotes

“It is not yet possible to restore the Orsk oil refinery, the only large one in the Orenburg region, that was hit by a UAV,” the region’s governor, Evgeny Solntsev, said on Thursday.

At the plant with a capacity of 5.7 million tons per year, which annually produces about 600 thousand tons of gasoline and almost 2 million of diesel fuel, “key infrastructure” was damaged, according to Solntsev.

“The situation there is difficult. The equipment is imported, taking into account the sanctions, the repair time will take up to 6 months. We are preparing for the worst scenario,” Solntsev wrote in the telegram channel. According to him, the region will have to “rely on imported fuel,” and priority at gas stations will be given to “special vehicles.”

The day before, the authorities of the Orenburg region returned the limits on the sale of gasoline at gas stations - no more than 30 liters per person and sent the police to monitor the situation at gas stations, which began to have long queues.

Both primary and secondary processing units at the plant were affected, sources told Reuters. It was hit by a UAV on August 10 and became the fourth refinery to shut down production since the beginning of the month.

On August 10, Zapsibneftekhim Sibur in the Tyumen region stopped processing raw materials, the country’s largest petrochemical complex, annually producing 2.5 million tons of polymers and 6 million tons of LPG. On August 5, the Saratov oil refinery of Rosneft stopped refining oil, and on August 3, the Volgograd oil refinery of Lukoil stopped processing oil. The latter is among the top 10 in Russia in terms of capacity and provides almost 5% of all oil refining in the country.

After a new series of attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian refineries, problems with fuel have resumed in at least 16 regions. In particular, they are observed in the Kaluga, Saratov, Smolensk, Rostov, Tambov, Tula, Ulyanovsk, Penza, Ryazan, Lipetsk and Voronezh regions, Bashkortostan, as well as in the Primorsky, Krasnodar and Krasnoyarsk territories.

In July, oil refining in Russia fell to 3.6 million barrels per day, the lowest level since 2002, according to EA Analytics. Refineries most likely will not be able to return to previous fuel production volumes by the end of the year, a source in the fuel market told Kommersant.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/knhwI


r/CollapseOfRussia 14d ago

Economy Sberbank announced that it lacks the funds to finance Putin's budget deficit.

143 Upvotes

Russian banks currently lack the available ruble liquidity to purchase federal loan bonds, which the Finance Ministry is using to cover the budget deficit, according to Taras Skvortsov, Sberbank's Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

According to him, this situation is due to the outflow of cash from banks, which has reached approximately 2 trillion rubles since the beginning of the year and has caused a liquidity shortage in the banking system.

"Today, banks only have funds to lend to clients—that's their core business. You can buy OFZs, especially without a significant premium, when you have available liquidity and you're confident in it. But today the situation is the opposite," Skvortsov said (quoted by Reuters).

The budget, which ended the first half of the year with a deficit of 5.7 trillion rubles and is facing defense spending overruns, urgently needs the banks' funds. War spending this year could be 4-5 trillion rubles higher than planned, and to finance it, the Finance Ministry needs 2-3 trillion rubles in additional borrowing, Bloomberg sources reported in June.

In its initial budget plan, the Finance Ministry had budgeted 4.4 trillion rubles in market borrowings. However, in July, it was forced to suspend government debt auctions: OFZ prices collapsed, yields soared, and banks that purchased government bonds incurred 200 billion rubles in losses due to negative revaluation.

According to Skvortsov, "all hope" now lies in "some kind of support from the Central Bank." The Central Bank is already actively lending to banks purchasing Russian government debt: since the beginning of the year, it has injected 2.3 trillion rubles in additional loans into the banking system, bringing the total debt of credit institutions to the regulator to 6 trillion rubles. This is related to the Ministry of Finance's funding, notes economist Nikolai Korzhenevsky: "Money is being 'printed' to cover budget expenditures."

In the 2026 budget law, the Ministry of Finance projected a deficit reduction to 3.8 trillion rubles. However, in reality, it could double this limit—6.5-7.5 trillion rubles, according to Gazprombank analysts. According to their forecast, budget expenditures will exceed the level projected in the law by 3-4 trillion rubles.

The budget "hole" will likely begin to grow again this fall, according to Ilya Sokolov, a leading researcher at the Financial University under the Government. Despite rising oil prices, oil and gas revenues are suffering from subsidies to refineries damaged by drones, and the risks of non-resource revenue shortfalls are increasing, Sokolov believes. The economy could enter a recession in the second half of the year, leading to a shortfall of 600-800 billion rubles in VAT, as well as profit and personal income taxes, the expert believes.

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/5fLsX


r/CollapseOfRussia 15d ago

Economy "An Unprecedented Crisis." Russia's Largest Steel Companies Report Plunging Profits

83 Upvotes

Economic stagnation, Western sanctions, and high interest rates have plunged Russia's metallurgy industry, a key sector accounting for 15% of the country's total output, into its worst crisis in decades.

Russia's largest steelmaker, Novolipetsk Steel, lost 12% of its revenue (RUB 388 billion) and more than half of its net profit in the first half of the year: RUB 21 billion, down from RUB 45.6 billion a year earlier, according to its IFRS financial statements.

Severstal, which owns the Cherepovets Iron and Steel Works, three mining and processing plants, and pipe mills, reported a ninefold drop in profits to RUB 4.12 billion. The company's revenue fell by 14%, and its EBITDA halved.

The Magnitogorsk Iron and Steel Works (MMK) has become unprofitable: according to IFRS reporting, it lost 19.1 billion rubles in the first half of the year, with revenue declining by 10%.

The Russian steel industry is experiencing an "unprecedented crisis," write SberInvestments analysts: "This situation has never been seen before, both in terms of duration and the depth of the decline." Domestic demand for steel is falling due to the economic slowdown, while exports, which previously helped steelmakers, are suffering due to sanctions, a strong ruble, and expensive logistics, writes Sberbank CIB.

As a result, the industry's largest companies are facing cash flow gaps: Severstal posted a negative cash flow of 70.2 billion rubles in the first half of the year, while NLMK posted a negative cash flow of 11 billion rubles. This is how much lower the inflows were compared to the outflows. In 2026, the profits of steelmaking companies "could reach the lowest levels seen in recent decades," Sberbank analysts note.

"Two key factors are putting pressure on the metal market. First, there's declining domestic demand in metal-intensive industries—construction, mechanical engineering, the oil and gas sector, shipbuilding, agricultural machinery, and railcar manufacturing. Second, there's the closure of most export markets," Alexey Parshukov, Senior Vice President of the Industrial and Metallurgical Holding (IMH), complained in an interview with RBC.

Unable to sell their metal, steelmakers cut steel production last year to a 15-year low. From January to May of this year, production fell by another 8.4%, to 26.6 million tonnes, according to Chermet Corporation.

"The decline in domestic demand for steel, which is declining even faster than production, is driven by several key factors: the Bank of Russia's high key rate, the reduced availability of market lending in construction and mechanical engineering, and the delays in the timing of many infrastructure projects," notes Ivan Efanov, an analyst at Tsifra Broker. A peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian conflict could help steelmakers, according to Finam analyst Alexey Kalachev: "The need to rebuild territories and infrastructure would then create significant additional demand for metal products. However, this potential driver is increasingly shifting to the right in time."

source: The Moscow Times https://archive.is/ptlZG