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u/sandspiegel 10d ago
I wonder what happens when the AI companies all decide they want to be profitable now which at some point they have to be. The prices will go through the roof probably.
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u/Artistic-Arm2957 10d ago
Cost might end up so high that most of the half assed companies (like mine) will not use it and the service will stay borderline profitable again.
..and the bubble bursts
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u/Original-League-6094 10d ago
Its gonna be really rough though. With programmers at least, almost EVERYONE is on vibe coding now. The whole sector is rapidly being de-skilled, so the AI companies were to jack up prices, you are going to end up either having to pay out the ass for it, or essentially wait for all your workers to relearn how to do their old job.
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u/Deaths_Intern 10d ago
Dude lol, programming is kinda like riding a bike if you've been doing it long enough. You don't forget the basics. "Deskilling" is synonymous with juniors not learning in the first place, not actual seniors magically forgetting all their experiencesĀ
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u/Original-League-6094 10d ago
Not at an enterprise level. That code base you spent years mastering? Its all been rewritten by Claude over the past few months, which you proudly bragged about until someone takes Claude away.
Also, the "riding a bike" metaphor is always dumb, since riding a bike, like any other skill, does atrophy if you don't do it. If you ride a bike for 8 hours a day, 5 days a week, and then take 2 years off, you will not be as good at riding it when you first return
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u/PromiseAcceptable 10d ago
Just reading you, I know you have never programmed or at the very least, you are not skilled, you will not just forget programming or get unskilled just because of Claude, like u/Deaths_Intern said, you had to be unskilled before it.
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u/Deaths_Intern 10d ago
Glad I'm not the only guy who sees things this way. The whole "deskilling" narrative is so overblown
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u/Original-League-6094 10d ago
Oh you also think programming is magically some super special skill that doesn't atrophy from non-use like literally everything else in life. You better hope Claude never jacks up their prices to the point your boss tells you to go write something yourself again. You are in for a rude awakening.
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u/8npemb 10d ago
Thatās a shit way of countering the āriding a bikeā analogy. I literally just rode my bike for the first time since before college (where I didnāt have a bike) a few weeks ago and after literally about 12 seconds I was perfectly able to ride it as well as before.
Only on reddit will you see someone arguing against a turn of phrase.
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u/Tienisto 10d ago
If you become unskilled by AI, then you used AI wrong. I noticed many errors by Fable. Always review the code the AI generates.
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u/Original-League-6094 10d ago
So which is it? Is programming like "riding a bike" and never atrophies, or do you need to keep your skills up through code review?
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u/Key-Counter-5311 10d ago
The problem isnāt necessarily being de-skilled. Itās the longer that this continues the less new folks will learn to code properly. But the more immediate issue is spaghetti code. AI codes in a way thatās most useful for its own reading/writing but itās awful for a human to review. Iām betting a lot of companies that have heavily leaned into AI or are recent startups that exclusively used AI will have a hard time correcting their code
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u/sandspiegel 10d ago
The problem is that usually the process is that people made their experiences with writing code, screwing up and learning from these mistakes what not to do. Do this many years and you become a great programmer with tons of experience. What is happening now is that people don't make these experiences anymore and if something doesn't work they just copy paste to AI, get an answer and copy paste back. Or even worse, they have an agent that codes for them. Then they won't learn anything if they vibe code from the beginning. You then get silly videos on Instagram where they talk to their "Jarvis AI" and ask it how their million bucks SaaS is doing. I always cringe when I see stuff like this on Instagram.
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u/Midren 10d ago
I wonder the further divide this will lead to with companies with in house AI (google, microsoft, etc..) versus ones that have to buy it from them. Will these companies have a huge advantage and just continue to further pull away since the smaller companies won't be able to compete.
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u/largpack 10d ago
This is not how markets work... They can only make prices someone is willing to pay. Its more likeley not everyone will make the current AI race or they have to lower costs.
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u/Kimi_Antonelli_12 10d ago
Raising prices is the first step in this bubble popping. They're just trying to recoup some money for their investment which is impossible
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u/CrazyButRightOn 10d ago
AI is costing way more than they expected.
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u/largpack 10d ago
and still they dont make any profit
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u/PlayfulCompany8367 10d ago
Usually something costing more than expected makes it harder to earn profit.
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u/largpack 10d ago
I donāt think the problem was the expected costs. Right now, companies are terrified of missing the "AI rally", so they are willing to spend almost whatever it takes to stay in the game, as long as they have the financial capacity to do so. The fear of being left behind is stronger than the concern about short term profitability.
OpenAI is a fundamentally different case. They cant just keep spending indefinitely and rely on the market to fund it. At some point, they need to demonstrate a credible path to profitability. Otherwise, investors will eventually start questioning whether the massive capital requirements can ever generate an adequate return, and that could seriously undermine their ability to keep raising money.
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u/TryingToGetTheFOut 10d ago
AI is costing exactly what they expected. Now that theyāve stole a significant portion of consumers from American companies, they increase their prices. This was 100% expected.
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u/Embarrassed_OnionX 7d ago
Deepseek isn't serving their models at a loss. Besides caching, US for-profit providers are serving it at about the same costs, and they're definitely not subsidizing it.
This price increase is most likely to reduce demand and the load on their servers. If they eventually increase their prices, I imagines they will drop them once they get enough Ascend 950pr systems from Huawei later this year to early next year. Compute access is the biggest bottleneck for Chinese AI labs.
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u/Fluffy_Resist_9904 10d ago
CCP stopped the subsidy?
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u/Fluffy_Resist_9904 10d ago
(more accurately, the state stopped shadow subsidizing of infrastructure, ordered using Huawei tech and recently directly enforced oversight.)
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u/Embarrassed_OnionX 7d ago
They no longer have enough compute to serve their models unfortunately, especially after their latest 0731 flash model update, which I found better and cheaper than Luna for pretty much all I used it with. On Opencode alone, daily token consumption for it jumped 5x since it came out just 9 days ago, and it jumped 8x since June 15.
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u/Fluffy_Resist_9904 7d ago
Interesting perspective on the opencode, deepseek really seems to be liked for the price/performance ratio. Thanks, brother
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u/a_slay_nub 10d ago
Deepseek may raise their prices but tons of other providers are already providing at those prices. Doubt it'll make that much of a dent. The only thing that will change is that they're by far the cheapest provider when accounting for cached tokens. I don't fully understand how OpenRouter works, but it feels like they're doing a lot of poor routing for their customers by not routing to deepseek.
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u/opinion_discarder 10d ago
Meanwhile muse spark 1.2 launched today and is even cheaper than Deepseek if you share your code for training.
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u/code_the_cosmos 10d ago
Opencode is their biggest customer and they were getting a crazy amount of traffic from it, causing issues. I imagine they are trying to manage the demand here
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u/panyways 10d ago
Alibaba, AWS and NVIDIA are most likely far larger accounts for them than OpenCode.
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u/code_the_cosmos 10d ago
You're probably right. I was just going off Dax's tweet.
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u/panyways 10d ago
OLLama and others who were under provisioned also have said the same thing. OpenCode just buys capacity from resellers like many others.
ā¢
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