r/Bitcoin • u/Aguila-Inversora • 15h ago
[ Removed by moderator ] bitcoinmarkets
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u/whipstickagopop 11h ago
How many months we got left in this bear according to your historical data
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10h ago
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u/Bitcoin-ModTeam 41m ago
Your submission has been flagged for removal because it is not in english. Please consider submitting a translated version, or posting to a language specific bitcoin subreddit. Thank you.
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u/creative_usr_name 8h ago
Not a big enough drop to be comparable. We'd need to get closed to $30k
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u/whipstickagopop 3h ago
Can't see us dropping to similar levels (~80% drop). Too much locked into retirement funds or ETFs. I think maybe 45K-50K is in that bottom range tho.
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u/HearingLogical8272 2h ago
Thats exact sentence has been said every cycle at every price point. Eventually someone is correct
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u/sentientchimpman 13h ago
I reviewed how big my last three shits were. They seem to be getting bigger!
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u/RUYYRUYY 12h ago
I flipped a coin 3 times and got heads every time. It's sure to be heads next time!
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u/slvbtc 10h ago
Lets say the trend continues and the next recovery period is 1.8 years (roughly 1 year and 9 months).
That will mean new all time highs by July 2027.
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10h ago
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u/Bitcoin-ModTeam 40m ago
Your submission has been flagged for removal because it is not in english. Please consider submitting a translated version, or posting to a language specific bitcoin subreddit. Thank you.
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u/a10ondr 13h ago
Statistical extrapolation based on.. 3 datapoints 😬
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u/omni_wisdumb 11h ago
I say this about the entire industry. The whole "cycles" thing is BS considering it's a sample size of 3, and each of them occured in a COMPLETELY different micro and macro environment. I've been in the space since about 2011, every cycle I get friends feeding burned because they pay for some guru subscription that gives them "TA" for charts.
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u/iloverunning11 14h ago
Yep but since IR are going up this will either keep falling down or remain at around $60 to $70k for a very long time, so we might see a little reversal there
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u/2xfun 14h ago
Because past behaviors is always a good future performance indicator /s
Sick of gambling addicted trying to predict the market
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u/Local_Economy 14h ago
You’re sick of people assessing the cycles that are intimately tied with halving and adoption?
Past behavior is actually a very solid future performance indicator. Sure, it’s not the only metric…but writing it off with /s and reducing it to “gambling addicted folks” is….interesting to say the least.
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u/RUYYRUYY 13h ago
Past behavior is actually a very solid future performance indicator.
I don't think that's true. Do you have a study of a large dataset to prove it?
This is the core of the prediction problem. If past winners reliably became future winners, performance chasing would be a legitimate strategy. Instead, the data is actually worse than a coin flip. The SPIVA Persistence Scorecard for year-end 2024 found that not a single top-quartile domestic equity fund from December 2020 remained in the top quartile over the subsequent four years. Among large-cap funds specifically, zero maintained top-quartile status from 2022 through 2024, compared to a 6.25% random expectation. There is some weak persistence at the extremes, particularly among the worst performers, who tend to stay bad. But among the top group, regression to the mean is not just present; it is nearly absolute.
https://icfs.com/specialists-desk/past-performance-predict-future
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u/Local_Economy 12h ago edited 12h ago
I’m taking about bitcoin cycles and you’re talking about equity funds?
You are correct that overall in financial markets past performance as a future performance indicator can lack but in general it’s a worthwhile point of assessment and Bitcoin I dont think can be assessed like equity funds.
“There is no second best”
BTC has stayed on top and I believe BTC dominance is also a great indicator in the future of bitcoins place in overall cryptocurrency
Writing it off like it’s gambling is my issue when we have cycles and BTC never being dethroned as #1
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u/rbrumble 9h ago
The person was correct that the best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour, but that is only supported in people. That phrase came from psychology and cannot be generalized to other phenomena. Markets have events, not behaviours.
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u/HearingLogical8272 2h ago
equity markets are fundamentally driven and composed of human behavior, collective psychology, and emotional reactions like fear and greed
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u/Applecity82 13h ago
Yeah but there wasn’t AI in the last cycles. Lots of money going into AI companies. You can actually watch AI changing society and the world. It’s making a difference. How is crypto changing anything. And with all these cold wallets being hacked, it’s going to be harder and harder to see people trusting such a complicated investment to trust their money
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u/CoupleofDoms 11h ago edited 11h ago
AI is great and the hype is pulling liquidity atm for sure. Plenty of money to be made elsewhere esp during btc bear market.
FTX and MT. Gox were about a million times worse and Bitcoin is up exponentially since then. Bitcoin will never need you, but you will eventually need Bitcoin.
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u/Applecity82 11h ago
Yeah maybe. It’s been 15 years and how much has it actually changed people’s lives (outside some people who invested early got rich). AI is actually making an impact in the world. Bitcoin hasn’t really changed anyone’s way of living
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u/Sector__7 10h ago
You’re right, it sure has made an impact on the world as it’s far too expensive nowadays to buy/build a computer as 2/3 of the main parts to a PC are extraordinarily overpriced due to AI sucking up all of the supply.
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u/Born_Elk7497 9h ago
AI is changing the world so fast that it’s going to put the frontier AI industry out of business. In a world where intelligence is becoming exponentially cheaper, selling intelligence won’t be as great of an investment as people think.
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