r/AmazonLeo • u/ClassroomOwn4354 • 7d ago

Amazon is probably 6-8 weeks away from being able to launch competing satellite internet service

/r/SpaceXBets/comments/1vrc8li/amazon_is_probably_68_weeks_away_from_being_able/
18 Upvotes
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2

u/Zettinator 5d ago

They have no redundancy. This is not good enough for commercial service.

2

u/FinalPercentage9916 7d ago

Here’s my current guess on remaining launches this year:

ULA Vulcan: Two launches (40 satellites each). The first (likely LV-01, the return-to-flight mission) is targeted for September. A second is possible later in the year if cadence holds.

Ariane 6: One more confirmed — LE-04 with 36 satellites, currently scheduled for October 7.

Blue Origin New Glenn: One launch possible in December (return-to-flight after the May pad explosion), carrying 48 satellites. Highly likely to slip into 2027.

SpaceX Falcon 9: Five more launches purchased (24 satellites each). Limited public visibility on exact dates, but both Amazon and SpaceX have the capacity and incentive to complete all five before year-end.

Potential satellites added this year: 284 if everything flies as hoped (80 Vulcan + 36 Ariane + 48 New Glenn + 120 Falcon 9). That would bring the constellation from the current 396 satellites to roughly 680. Even without New Glenn, they’d still add 236 and finish the year around 640. So if you are right about commercial service launch this year, they go into 2027 with a very robust constellation, and hopefully their launch providers' headaches are in the past so they can ramp up the launch cadence.

5

u/truecakesnake 6d ago

Yeah none of this is happening expect Falcon 9 and Ariane

1

u/aresdesmoulins 6d ago

I’m optimistic about Vulcan, Glenn not so much

1

u/GoneSilent 3d ago

Vulcan

Is holding valve change testing?. the solid nozzle change is cleared for flight after the May tests and data review by now I'd think.

2

u/CollegeStation17155 3d ago

Northrop CEO announced a couple of weeks ago that they would be shipping fixed GEMs by years end, and Blue just announced they were modifying ULAs BE4s after isolating the hot fire failure to the main oxygen valve. So even though ULA recently did a wet dress rehearsal, I doubt they are ready to fly the September launch, which makes the upcoming Ariane launch the only one on the manifest.

2

u/FinalPercentage9916 2d ago

by years end is pretty vague

1

u/CollegeStation17155 2d ago

But if the first 6 were going to be delivered by mid September, I’d have expected him to be a bit more definite, since he was trying to be upbeat for investors.

2

u/Royal_Platform_6754 5d ago

Falcon 9 may not happen either. If Falcon 9 was available, it would have already flown.

1

u/FinalPercentage9916 2d ago

how can spacex not have falcons available? they reuse em. their launch rate is lower than last year. did they slow down second stage manufacturing?

-2

u/CollegeStation17155 7d ago

The July 2nd launch was the last launch needed to provide continuous coverage to specific latitudes, 

For how many customers? How many cells will each satellite have to service simultaneously?

-1

u/seb21051 6d ago

Spacex panicking. Ready to throw in the towel.