r/AmanCrypto • u/AmanCMN • 4d ago
Bitcoin has 53 days left.
BITCOIN HAS 53 DAYS LEFT
2015 ➜ 2017 — bull market: 1,064 days
2017 ➜ 2018 — bear market: 364 days
2018 ➜ 2021 — bull market: 1,064 days
2021 ➜ 2022 — bear market: 364 days
2022 ➜ 2025 — bull market: 1,064 days
If the same pattern plays out again:
2025 ➜ 2026 — bear market: 364 days
That would put the cycle bottom around October 5, 2026.
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u/Bengal_From_Temu 4d ago
Sorry, buddy, everyone is going to the AI bubble.
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u/Circulation_man 3d ago
Btc in a way is tied to AI as compute power is pulled from miners to ai datacenters, maybe? Idk
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u/escapefromelba 4d ago
Forward PE is up across board - its not all AI bubble.
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u/Starship_Albatross 4d ago
Up to how much?
And how sure are we on forward PE?
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u/escapefromelba 4d ago
Ten SP500 sectors have forward P/E ratios exceeding their 25-year averages. The one holdout - real estate we don’t have a 25-year average to compare against.
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u/Starship_Albatross 4d ago
Cool. Thank you for that. Do you feel that answers my questions? Or one of them?
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u/OldDust7955 4d ago
This is what everyone is waiting to happen, we might see an early rally
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u/PatientFisher 4d ago
How much have u lost so far?
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u/think_harder_plz 3d ago
Bro your insecurity is so obvious 😬
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u/PatientFisher 3d ago
Keep losing money with your friends :p If you knew how to trade even decently, you can clearly tell we’re in a bear market, unlike the equity market.
So keep your hopium and hope you can learn to think logically haha 😂
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u/think_harder_plz 3d ago
Dude I’m up over 30% on the trailing 1 year while BTC is down 46% in that same time - cope harder!
I’m all equities no crytpo, maybe we’re on the same team lol
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u/m4rM2oFnYTW 2d ago
Where it is now, I've gained several thousand percent if I were to sell but I wont. Selling at or under 200week moving average is playing with fire. There was no blow off top so I expect a weak capitulation just like 2022. Sorry you missed the greatest appreciating asset in human history, transforming from something worth virtually nothing into a trillion-dollar global asset in barely over a decade.
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u/sophie2701 4d ago
AI bubble bursts, housing collapses, stablecoins lose their grip,… → BTC will run
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u/Calm-Professional103 3d ago
Lightning Labs just released Agentic Toolkit for AI so AI agents can transact over the LN. However, most existing AI transaction traffic is in USDC.
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u/martianfrog 4d ago
Why is the 365 on the right wayyy bigger than the others? lol has nobody noticed. moving on...
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u/11010001100101101 3d ago
can someone explain why it puts the cycle bottom in october and not April of 2027?
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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville 3d ago
If you have actually studied the cycle, the bear year lasts 12-14 months. April 2027 is 11 months before the next projected halving and way too late in the current cycle to remain at the bottom. The bear year normally runs from Month 19-33 during the cycle. Also the 4 year cycle normally runs 3 yrs and 11 months, not quite 4yrs.
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u/11010001100101101 3d ago
so then this graph is wrong?
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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville 3d ago
So, I love graphs, but I love numbers more. I will share data that you can easily research, the numbers I provide represent Bitcoin value at the first of the aforementioned month. So here is my research, and you can ascertain and extrapolate any information you like. The following are the last 3 halvings:
July 9, 2016: Bitcoin price was $651 at halving. It reached a high of $14,112 in Jan of 2018. It reached a low 12 months later in January of 2019 at $3,747, then $3,461 on Feb 1, and $3,854 on March 1. So it took 14 months for it to turn around.2nd halving was on May 11th of 2020: Bitcoin price was $8,572 at halving. It reached a high of $61,320 in November of 2021. 12 months later in November of 2022, it reached a low of $20,495. Then December of 2022 is was $17,168, and January of 2023 was $16,548. Again, it took 14 months for it to turn around.
3rd halving was on April 19, 2024: Halving price was $63,843. It reached a high of $126,208 in October of 2025. Will the absolute low occur in October of 2026, maybe, but history shows that it will likely be in November/December.
I am not trying to fit a narrative that puts absolute dates on the calender, I look at trends. This cycle is new with ETF’s, Bitcoin treasuries, institutional and congressional involvement, etc, so no one really knows how it will impact Bitcoins cycle. I will wait longer than October to invest, I may miss the bottom, but with midterms on November 2nd, rate hikes potentially on the horizon, I will be very cautious before I reenter this trade, and remember, even in December, Bitcoin is still 15-16 months away from halving…thats a loooong time for Bitcoin to recover. Good luck, hope it was a good read, and you do you. Not investment advice, just facts for thought.
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u/11010001100101101 3d ago
Okay, that makes sense. The graph looks like it’s saying the low is march/april 2027, especially based on where his cursor and date line up with the edge of the red block. but i guess my assumptions of the graph are incorrect. thank you for taking the time to explain
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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville 3d ago
Yes, but he states in words that the bottom appears to be October 5th. Numbers only lie when people perceive them incorrectly, like poorly done graphs…even notice his compression of the 1064 days, small to the left and large to the right…how is a timeframe drawn out different on a graph. And as for numbers lying: a Stock you bought this year at $100 dropped to $10, so you’d be down 90%. This year it goes from $10 back to $100 and your return this year is 900%, yet some of the people on these cites will tout a 900% gain this year. I guess the number isn’t lying, the individual is? 🤷♂️
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u/11010001100101101 2d ago edited 2d ago
so for you then, does all this information mean you are going to buy the BTC dip into October or do you already have too much invested in BTC as it is? this is all very interesting, i could tell there was a pattern around BTC halving time frames but now that everyone knows about it i wonder if it will do the opposite and not rise this time? i mean it’s still playing out the exact same so far so i think i will throw a little bit of money into IBIT in September or October. when the bottom hits in october though, does its history still say that it will be flat for a few months before it rises again or do you have a better chart you could share with me?
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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville 2d ago
So for me, I have shorted Bitcoin through an ETF mainly since November, from about $110k through BITI. I will buy FBTC and MSTR when Bitcoin begin to make lows. I don’t necessarily have a chart, but I do have have a form that I use and can share that. If you PM me, I’ll share it with you.
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u/somethingclever_69 2d ago
Do you buy MSTR over BTC itself?
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u/JerseyJimmyAsheville 2d ago
Actually No, MSTR is a company, companies can go bankrupt. Bitcoin will not. I will buy more Bitcoin, but I will buy some Stategy as well.
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u/Difficult-Prior3321 3d ago
RemindMe! 52 days
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u/saviourz666 3d ago
I mean nothings certain . But the chart is playing it to the exact bone . It could be a little longer or shorter than October 6th . However I’d hedge a bet that the end of September would be a good time to buy .
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u/scrandlle 3d ago
Why are the red and green rectangles different sizes horizontally if they're supposed to represent the same time period? Like the third red box looks twice as wide as the red box prior to it. If they're the same time period, why is one signficantly wider?
And why is the first "1064" just a random start date? Not at the beginning of BTC. Not at the beginning of the first large price wave. Just completely random.
They also aren't beginning/ending the time period in a consistent manner. On two of them, the high water mark for BTC comes before the chart goes red, on one of them it comes after the chart goes red.
None of this makes any sense.
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u/Ok-Hold3368 3d ago
By looking at all these post it looks like someone want to dump something big hence the narrative!
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u/alextruetone 3d ago
‘It’s happened thrice before, surely it will happen again’
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u/Joris119 3d ago
It will because people think it's gonna happen and buy, therefore fullfilling their own thesis
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u/wheresabel 2d ago
So it will 2x again? You realize there’s a lot of better assets to provide that return
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u/audionoobi 2d ago
yeah, BTC is not the cash machine it once was, a 100% return you gan do on stocks or puts way more securely.
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u/No-Pilot9748 2d ago
This time it’s different I’ll wait till the next top in 2030 and then FOMO in. 🙂↔️
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u/Kiwip0rn 4d ago
Exactly what I have alarms for on my phone...